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那個月亮賺(賠?)錢?
2013/01/28 23:23:13瀏覽1294|回應17|推薦15

當年遊絲路,甘肅 蘭州 五泉山 導遊 指着泉井 問: 有幾個月亮 ? 老朽 何等聰明才智 ? 見多識廣,配合演戲: "至少三個,雲中月,水中月,眾人心中月"。



市場 股價 多少 ? 每秒可能不同,股市賺錢,最重要的,也是玩家心中的那個。 http://blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/5938215

Fundamental Analysis 提供 參考價,一般有 PE, ROE, ..... Ratio.

但 若 Cash Reserve 過高, PE, ROE 会 Penalize the 參考價 ? ! 

此刻   http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NVDA+Key+Statistics  NVDA 市價為 $12.5 USD.  PE 為 15.68 or earning  為 $0.8 per share 

Owner Equity $6.9 ROE 11.61% 

但 Cash per share 為 $5.5 

設 發 Special dividend $3 

理論上 股价 reduced to $9.5 (12.5 - 3), Equity reduced to $3.9 (6.9 - 3)

PE ? 11.875 ! or 32% better !! ROE ? 20.4% or 75% better ! ! !  雲去來花弄影 ? 

Please do not laugh !  Some Short Seller published an article attacking the ROE 偏低, trying to drive down the stock price.   http://www.thestreet.com/story/11821512/1/nvidia-corporation-stock-hold-recommendation-reiterated-nvda.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Current return on equity is lower than its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a clear sign of weakness within the company. When compared to other companies in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry and the overall market, NVIDIA CORP's return on equity is below that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.

事實上,  BCN last month sales figure:Nexus 7  ~ 44.4% market share,  vs. Apple iPad ~ 40.1%.    Nexus 7  ~ uses NVIDIA® Tegra® 3 quad-core processor.  Bottom line is that this quarter's earning are more likely be better than last year same quarter !   http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN3/7643231.shtml 2013.01.17 02:45 pm

February 14 announce Q4 earning, February 15 Option expiration.

妳心中 NVDA February 15 的 月亮 是 明 ? 是 暗 ?  

懇請不吝賜教?

ps. Not a Buy, Sell, or Hold recommandation on NVDA, Not responsible if you made or lost money as a result of reading this article.

ps 2. 『Nvidia has been holding support around $12, and now the bulls are looking for the graphics-chip maker to rally.  optionMONSTER's Heat Seeker system detected unusual activity in the semiconductor stock on Thursday and Friday. First they bought the June 12 calls for $1.11, then they came back the next day to snap up the September 13 calls for $1.05 and $1.06. Volume exceeded open interest both sessions, indicating that new money was put to work.』  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-attracts-bulls-second-day-111434382.html


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摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
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Double top ?
2022/04/03 09:36

懇請不吝賜教?
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2022-04-03 15:35 回覆:
Candlestick Charts


Top 6 Candlestick Patterns

我愛臺灣
等級:8
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貪婪的猶太人
2013/02/16 00:03

 Icahn :貪婪的猶太人, depise Ackman for Herablife last month, then yesterday disclosed  he  holds long HLA, more  cases like biogen---

despeciable


摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-16 01:51 回覆:

拼演技 ? 

三條線哦

http://blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/1258315


我愛臺灣
等級:8
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股神
2013/02/15 14:57
Oh, Oracle of Stock!
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-15 18:57 回覆:

http://blog.udn.com/joana93/5885843
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/5926632
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6158816
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6174642
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6192783
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6208054
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6228844
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6265202
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6280289
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6358315
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6365645
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6385540
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6390249
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/6406635
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7208667
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7211438
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7214165
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7217020
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7235623
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7240590
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7245402
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7250171
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7269023
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7269639
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7295673
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7299879
http://blog.udn.com/joana93/7304067
怒火中燒好

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-15 18:14 回覆:

股神 ? 

Who ?

Carl Icahn ?

天才 ? 人才 ? 庸才 ? 奴才 ?


三條線哦


Valley
等級:7
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hmmmmm
2013/02/15 10:50
莫非是內線消息? :)
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-15 11:07 回覆:

Every news and info comes from the internet.  Any body can get (if wanted.)

One does have to sort out the truth from the rummer and fictions.  

Immediately after the earning anouncement, the price of NVDA actually went down.  Especially during the after hour trading.  By past experience, I did not lose any sleep over the news of after hour market.   

三條線哦


Valley
等級:7
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WOW
2013/02/15 10:48
NVDA 今天漲得嚇死人﹐您發了﹐ 發了
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-15 10:57 回覆:

小小撈了一票, 五位數 (USD of course)

怒火中燒好

The most important part of this play is that the risk is very low !

1. The odds is 2 out of 3 in option sellers favor.

2. The Vangauard's SEC filing hinted the support @ $12.1

懇請不吝賜教?


JKTsai 老鼠嫁女兒
等級:8
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我才是瞎摸!
2013/02/15 05:04

這樣賺錢,太費心傷神啦!

(看不懂,瞎摸一場)


摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-15 05:38 回覆:

若需花太多時間, 老朽是不幹的。

炒股 是興趣之一  

pass time


悅己
等級:8
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COOL
2013/02/15 02:13

瞎摸象是靜靜吃三碗半那種耶,

厲害﹗
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-15 05:31 回覆:

半瓶墨水響叮噹 ? ! 

這一票抓到機會,基本上 愚婦夫 下個月 去 Cape Horn cruise + iguazu Fall Trip cost 夠 covered 啦 ! 

怒火中燒好



摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
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Gamble paid off !
2013/02/14 23:43

It turned out that one can set these bets up all that time until about 30 minutes before the closing of the market yesterday about 4 pm New York time. 2% (fat ?) time-premium of CALLS and PUTS for just a few (1 ~ 3?) days.

三條線哦

Then (5 pm New York Time) the NVDA company released the earning report of last quarter (Q4 2012) and forecast of next quarter (Q1 2013) business. The 2% (fat ?) time premium mostly evaporated and easy money was made !

怒火中燒好

The short sellers came in after hour trading, push the stock price further south. That leads to the stock action (a Spike down) at the market opening today, gave you another chance to long NVDA for more profit, and 小老朽 seized the opportunity to roll some February PUTs into March PUTs. Just 33 minutes into trading, the rolled PUTs has already showed some profits !

Fox扮鬼臉Fox扮鬼臉

懇請不吝賜教?

2% profits with very little risk !!!


懇請不吝賜教?

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
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Annualized Return 158% ? !
2013/02/12 10:41

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1172031-nvidia-vanguard-now-owns-6?source=email_rt_article_title

With the Vanguard news, the downside risk of NVDA is limited ? !

Today, NVDA closed @ $12.51

If you buy 1,000 shares of NVDA @ $12.51

Sell 10 contracts of NVDA Feb. $12.5 covered CALL @ $0.35

Also sell 10 contracts of NVDA Feb. $12.5 Puts @ $0.34

The most likely price @ close on the coming Friday is ? (Hint: $12.51 ?)

Then the premium earned, annualized is 176% ($0.34 / $12.51 / 0.8 week * 52 weeks) before commission

Minus commission (17.5%)

158.6 % ?

CD ? < 1 % ?


懇請不吝賜教?
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-13 23:37 回覆:

真賺 ! ! !  

飲水思源:

1. 祖宗保佑 ?

3. 神明保佑 ? (e.g. 地藏王菩薩 ? 觀世音菩薩 ? 太歲星君 ? 財神? .....)

4. 前諸世修的 ?

5. 時也命也運也 ? ! 

什麼什麼

懇請不吝賜教?


摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
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Market top ?
2013/02/08 21:32

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/3-reasons-not-stock-bubble-125813864.html

什麼

瞎摸象: If these folks are telling the truth, then, folks come in late of the game, are timid bunch. By definition, they will buy "Value" stock. NVDA fits that "Value" stock image ? !
懇請不吝賜教?
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