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那個月亮賺(賠?)錢?
2013/01/28 23:23:13瀏覽1249|回應17|推薦15

當年遊絲路,甘肅 蘭州 五泉山 導遊 指着泉井 問: 有幾個月亮 ? 老朽 何等聰明才智 ? 見多識廣,配合演戲: "至少三個,雲中月,水中月,眾人心中月"。



市場 股價 多少 ? 每秒可能不同,股市賺錢,最重要的,也是玩家心中的那個。 http://blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/5938215

Fundamental Analysis 提供 參考價,一般有 PE, ROE, ..... Ratio.

但 若 Cash Reserve 過高, PE, ROE 会 Penalize the 參考價 ? ! 

此刻   http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NVDA+Key+Statistics  NVDA 市價為 $12.5 USD.  PE 為 15.68 or earning  為 $0.8 per share 

Owner Equity $6.9 ROE 11.61% 

但 Cash per share 為 $5.5 

設 發 Special dividend $3 

理論上 股价 reduced to $9.5 (12.5 - 3), Equity reduced to $3.9 (6.9 - 3)

PE ? 11.875 ! or 32% better !! ROE ? 20.4% or 75% better ! ! !  雲去來花弄影 ? 

Please do not laugh !  Some Short Seller published an article attacking the ROE 偏低, trying to drive down the stock price.   http://www.thestreet.com/story/11821512/1/nvidia-corporation-stock-hold-recommendation-reiterated-nvda.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Current return on equity is lower than its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a clear sign of weakness within the company. When compared to other companies in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry and the overall market, NVIDIA CORP's return on equity is below that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.

事實上,  BCN last month sales figure:Nexus 7  ~ 44.4% market share,  vs. Apple iPad ~ 40.1%.    Nexus 7  ~ uses NVIDIA® Tegra® 3 quad-core processor.  Bottom line is that this quarter's earning are more likely be better than last year same quarter !   http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN3/7643231.shtml 2013.01.17 02:45 pm

February 14 announce Q4 earning, February 15 Option expiration.

妳心中 NVDA February 15 的 月亮 是 明 ? 是 暗 ?  

懇請不吝賜教?

ps. Not a Buy, Sell, or Hold recommandation on NVDA, Not responsible if you made or lost money as a result of reading this article.

ps 2. 『Nvidia has been holding support around $12, and now the bulls are looking for the graphics-chip maker to rally.  optionMONSTER's Heat Seeker system detected unusual activity in the semiconductor stock on Thursday and Friday. First they bought the June 12 calls for $1.11, then they came back the next day to snap up the September 13 calls for $1.05 and $1.06. Volume exceeded open interest both sessions, indicating that new money was put to work.』  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-attracts-bulls-second-day-111434382.html


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摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
等級:8
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What if ?
2013/02/07 19:33

附中 shao 學長: What if the stock continue to slide down?

1. 小老朽 乃 吃 金夏丸 長大的,對『驚嚇』免疫 ? ! Fox扮鬼臉

2. NVDA clearly out of Wall Street favor quite long ? ! Most loose leaves have been shaken out ? !

3. 積小勝為大勝,茅煮蓆 打韓戰,內戰俘虜打前鋒,損兵折將,.....哭哭哭哭

4. 減兵添灶 ? 添兵減灶 ? 樓梯法 ?


懇請不吝賜教?
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-07 19:58 回覆:
「天變不足畏、祖宗不足法、人言不足恤」 ~ 王安石 (1021~1086)

我愛臺灣
等級:8
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I am Bullish but trade
2013/02/03 16:51

I will tradev between 12.02-12.74

support/resistant---RSI MACD  can not  point clear for buy call and put


摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-04 01:39 回覆:

Solid Financial Strength, 

Cloudy outlook,

Proven management,

Option Premium not thin,

Share $ Near the floor of the support and the trading range.

The odds is in fovor of ..... 

Selling short term covered Call and Puts.

It's a better strategy than CD's ? 

什麼哦

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-07 00:57 回覆:

Using NVDA Feb. 12 Put and March 13 Put as trading vehicle, day traded this morning and netted about $200 USD this morning.  

At market open, it is clearly to me that NVDA market is over sold and improving around $12.2  so I sold 10 contracs of NVDA Feb. 12 Put and March 13 Put each.

Then market price of NVDA recovered, and stabilized around $12.36 so I bought back both.

In the process, netting about $200.   

懇請不吝賜教?


摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
等級:8
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Bullish ? Bearish ? News ?
2013/02/01 23:39

$12.2 million of reverse-convertible notes 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-01/barclays-sells-first-uridashi-notes-tied-to-nvidia-as-s-p-gains.html?cmpid=yhoo

三條線哭哭


懇請不吝賜教?
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-01 23:55 回覆:

Barclays’s five-month notes yield 9.02 percent monthly as long as Nvidia shares are at or above ($11.03) 90 percent of the stock’s Jan. 31 closing, while the coupon drops to 0.5 percent if the price falls by more than the 10 percent buffer, according to the prospectus for the product. If the shares gain more than 10 percent, the notes are redeemed at their full value.

Should the stock close below 90 percent of its initial value on any day between Feb. 1 and 10 trading days before expiration on June 21, the notes convert into the Nvidia stock at maturity, according to the marketing materials.

Nvidia shares closed at $12.26 on Jan. 31, after losing 34 percent of their value through last year since the end of 2009. In the latest earnings release in November, the company reported quarterly profit surpassing analysts’ estimates, helped by sales of chips used in tablet devices.

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-04 01:57 回覆:

Does Any one know how can Barclays finds money in selling this kind of deals ?

Please give a scenario ? 

懇請不吝賜教?

Barclays seems betting that NVDA's market $/share will either double or cut in half in 6 months ?  

In another words, 大起 or 大落 ? ! 

什麼哦 Fox扮鬼臉

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-02-04 22:23 回覆:

大起 or 大落 ? ! 

什麼哦 Fox扮鬼臉


.花果山
等級:8
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分析
2013/01/31 03:22

It is a sound stategy, but the annualized return is a bit misleading.
1) Can it be done 20 times a year?
2) And to be right 20 times in a row(what's the odds of that?)

by the way, the breaking even point is $11.76

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-01-31 03:48 回覆:

It's in the neighborhood, not an exact science. 

1) Can it be done 20 times a year?

大哉問 ! Actually, the trades needs to be spreaded out throughout the month, in order to ride out daily fluctuation or average out the risk.  Obviously, there will always some timely gap in between trades.  On the other hand, there must have  預備隊 or 救命錢, in case there is some black swan  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory  !  

不三條線哦

2) And to be right 20 times in a row (what's the odds of that?)  

Obviously, there is a lot other considerations in real world bet.  But, the odds is in your favor if .....  

Fox扮鬼臉


JKTsai 老鼠嫁女兒
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呵呵,人二腳,錢四腳啦!
2013/01/31 01:57

少算,多贏!

瞎摸-象,有輸也有贏,花果山的猴兄猴弟,千萬別跟!


摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-01-31 02:09 回覆:

所言甚是 !

人算 不如天算 ? !

不
http://blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/3145671

三條線哦

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-01-31 02:27 回覆:

実際操作:  

NVDA 時市价: $ 12.36

Buy 1,000 Share, Sell a Feb. 12 covered call @ $0.60

Also sell a Feb 12 puts @ $0.24

What you are hoping for is that NVDA will not fall below $11.64 on Feb. 15

If NVDA stays about the same, or above $12 on Feb. 15, (Most likely ?)

You make $.48/share or 0.0194% in 2.5 weeks or annualized 40%  

Note: all comission is negnected, so the actual return is a little less.  

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-01-31 02:38 回覆:

白先勇 尊翁 抗日 名將 白崇禧  战略: 『積小勝 為大勝』。

當鬼神缺席時,或然率 掛帥 ? ! 

怒火中燒怒火中燒


Valley
等級:7
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偶也是鄧麗君的粉絲
2013/01/30 09:35
蔡琴﹐齊豫﹐鄧麗的歌喉各有特色。偶是她們的粉絲
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-01-30 11:36 回覆:

聽說,當年 白天聽老黑貓白貓』晚上聽小鄧 ? ! 

怒火中燒好

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-01-31 02:55 回覆:



.花果山
等級:8
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報明牌
2013/01/29 02:37
欲購從速~
http://blog.udn.com/michaelq/7232843

ps. Not a Buy, Sell, or Hold recommandation on NVDA, Not responsible if you made or lost money as a result of reading this article
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2013-01-29 03:19 回覆:

報明牌 ? 

http://blog.udn.com/IAMANOLDMAN/7260911?raid=4936540#rep4936540

三條線哦

Fox扮鬼臉

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