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金價
2011/12/16 20:35:18瀏覽1401|回應22|推薦17

楔子: 狼來了 http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/53767319

金價像月亮,初一, 十五 不一樣! 識務者為俊傑?看準價,就可錢!

黄金,是世上最好的通貨。金價,如同石油,一般以美元 (USD) 計價。美元漲,金價跌; 美元跌,金價漲。

房地產價,有幾種:

1. 當初成本價 (Historical Cost),此與 炒金 (金礦股) Resistance / Support level 有關。
 
2. Replacement Cost (AiSC ~ All-in-Sustaining-Cost), 此與 炒金 (金礦股) Support level 有關。將黄金從礦石中分離出來,需甚高能量,因此與價同步。又物以稀為貴,各金礦產金成本不同。南非,南美 金礦 另有政治風險。有時金礦大吃小,併購價貴賤,有 Business 風險。如何降低風險? 分散投資?  即使同一家金礦,各 Batch 因成色, 交通, ..... 成本不同。 因此有 Sequence 花樣。 金價高時, 賣成本高的, 金價低時,賣成本低的。

3. Income / interest, 此與 炒金 (金礦股) 期貨 Future,Option trading, Time premium 有關。    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-warren-buffett-hates-gold-120228611.html
 
4. Market Price, 炒金 (金礦股) Market Supply / Demand 決定市價,市價又分 Physical / Paper Gold。

查 黃金存貨 分散於 各國央行﹐各地土豪﹐投資散户﹐.....

市面買賣的 黃金﹐佔存貨比例 極小? 但 買賣價格 決定 存貨市價。 假設大户 商定 只買不賣﹐.....

影響金價走勢之因素:

0.  炒家心理 會怎麼想 ? 黄金投資客 不妨交換意見 ? 近年來 大銀行 (HSBC, Bank of Nova Scotia, Barclays PLC, Credit Suisse Group AG , Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc JPMorgan Chase & Co, Societe Generale, Standard Bank Group Ltd and UBS AG)  聯手 壟斷 貴金屬 交易,操控 市場價格 (Mainly short, 作空)。 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/24/usa-banks-probe-idUSL4N0VY0NL20150224

1. 股市大盤走勢,黄金已成投資人 Asset allocation 的一種,當股市急跌,某些人 被迫 (Short Squeeze) 賣金救市。

2. 利率: 若利率長期居高不下,不利金價,因為 黄金沒生命,不能 雞生蛋,蛋生雞。 可是 藉 衍生交易 derivative 能生 利息 → 例如 ETF GLD 之 Call/Put time premium。 委內瑞拉 政經危機﹐政府向美銀行借美金﹐付利息﹐以黃金擔保。 若無黃金 則借不到錢﹐請教 → 黃金生不生利 ? 您手中黃金若借給 委內瑞拉 中央銀行 当然生利。   http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-warren-buffett-hates-gold-120228611.html

3. 通膨: 美金貶值,買不到東西,金漲。 美联儲公開通膨目标 2%/year or 7.3768倍/100year or 54.4167倍/200year 但 政客一般誇大 → 實際美金通膨 或不止此數 ? 小老朽45年前 到美國﹐汔油﹐汔車﹐屋子 均約漲了 7~8倍。 年通膨 45年 7倍為4.2% 8倍為4.62% 兩者平均 4.41% 百年 81.6倍 200年 6659倍 金價歷史看﹐http://onlygold.com/Info/Historical-Gold-Prices.asp 1967之前管制﹐1967 $35.5 之後逐年上升﹐若 2017 為 $1325 則 年通膨為7.2%

4. 災禍:天災,人禍,逃難,避險,金漲。(美金或漲? 或不漲?)

5. 首飾用途: 印度人結婚,.....

6. 油價 ~ 開採成本, 息息相關。

7. 各國央行儲備 增? 減 ?。 老共 採金 曾為 武警專利。 雖然 老共產金世界第一, 但 所產之金,可能大多進了 國家儲備 ? !

8. 物以稀為貴。 GG CEO 說: 近年來,世上無大型新金礦發現。   http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/1995047   By the end of 2020, contained gold in reserves from these operations stood at 24,238t, down 10% from 26,989t in 2016. This highlights that depletion from mining has outpaced reserve replacement from resource upgrades over the past five years. Reserves at these operations are sufficient to support production at current levels for approximately 11 years. https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-08-03/Gold-reserves-fell-10-in-2016-20-but-enough-to-support-production-for-over-10-years-report.html

9. 世界人口 增長 → 設 人均持金率不變﹐..... 。

哦

懇請不吝賜教?

供需: http://www.usdebtclock.org/gold-demand-by-country.html

( 時事評論財經 )
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Central Banks - sold Gold in August, 2020
2020/10/07 22:57
全球央行變成黃金「淨賣家」。 價格飆漲﹐導致需求減緩。 世界黃金協會(WGC)7日表示,全球央行8月﹐淨賣出12.3公噸的黃金。

https://udn.com/news/story/6811/4918156

The world’s central banks sold more gold in August than they bought, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Wednesday, ending a year and a half-long run of monthly gold accumulation and helping stall a rapid rise in gold prices.

Gold surged from just over $1,500 at the start of 2019 to a record high of $2,072.50 in early August, before slipping to around $1,900.

Uzbekistan sold 31.7 tonnes, offsetting smaller purchases by countries including India, Kyrgyzstan and Turkey, the WGC said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/gold-central-banks/central-banks-sold-gold-in-august-as-price-rally-stalled-idINL8N2GY28I

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世上 黃金 有限。
2020/10/05 09:34
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/above-ground-stocks

世上 黃金 80% 己 挖出來。 剩下 20% 埋在地下。 礦土含含金量 日差。 成本 日高。
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July 2011 ~ July 2020
2020/07/25 07:49


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April 1st 2019 Bank of International Settlements ~ 黃金 與 美鈔 平起平坐。
2020/07/07 14:09
On April 1st 2019, the Bank of International Settlements designated gold as part of its Basel III regulatory framework, a tier-1 ASSET CLASS. Up until then, it was considered a tier-3 asset, which qualifies for 50% collateral, whereas tier-1 assets (same as USD cash and U.S. Treasury bonds) qualify for 100% COLLATERAL.

月餘(2019五月底)﹐金價 結束 橫向整理﹐轉向上升﹐至今已滿13月﹐不見轉向契機。

表面看﹐導火線 乃中美貿易戰D.C. 談判破裂。 實際 可能 Covid-19 瘟疫。 也有可能 黃金 與 美鈔 平起平坐。成為 世界 央行 清帳貨幣。


https://kingdomecon.wordpress.com/2019/03/20/bis-to-reclassify-gold-as-a-tier-1-asset-on-march-31-2019-what-is-the-implication/
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在危機來臨時,實體黃金 缺貨。
2020/04/04 19:02

https://udn.com/news/story/6811/4467626

金條﹐金幣 非常 缺貨。 Bloomberg April 2, 2020 ~ Gold Dealers Report Big Shortages of Small Bars and Coins

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-dealers-report-big-shortages-061306313.html


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伯斯鑄幣廠黃金代幣(PMGT)。
2019/10/20 20:20
利用智慧手機的便利性,毋須經過實物交易,非常簡單快速的購買一盎斯黃金。此為全球首見,因為每枚代幣都有實體黃金支持。這些黃金不僅有西澳省政府擔保,而且實際存放在位於伯斯的央行級金庫。

The Perth Mint Gold Token (PMGT) was launched by InfiniGold on Friday, and is backed 1:1 by GoldPass certificates issued by The Perth Mint. The digital certificates are 100% gold backed and guaranteed by the Government of Western Australia, which is the sole owner of the 120-year-old mint.

“PMGT is digitized gold that allows users to conveniently acquire and have entitlement over government guaranteed physical gold stored at The Perth Mint in a trusted and cost-effective way,” InfiniGold said in an announcement.

The token – designed with the assistance of professional services firm Ernst and Young – is aimed to offer an alternative to traditional gold investment products such as ETFs, while using blockchain tech to allow real-time trading and settlement.

InfiniGold CEO Andreas Ruf said: “With The Perth Mint as custodian of the underlying physical gold that backs PMGT, buyers will be able to access a secure and reliable token representing the strongest asset class to date – gold.”

The Perth Mint as custodian, the government of Western Australia has an AA1 rating from Moody’s.
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50-Year Price Analysis And Production-Demand
2019/07/30 16:44
FB50gold

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/07/29/gold-prices-50-year-price-analysis-and-production-demand-dynamics/#7ce21fa47efc

解讀: Top before the Last top $850 occured over $615. Assume next top occuring at annual average around 1400 → then the top may be 850 / 615 x 1400 = 1935 ?

Another next top approach: 1600+ / 700 x 1100 = 2514

A safe bet ?
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新 金礦 日益 難找 .....
2018/05/03 07:46
Increase in gold exploration dollars spent not yet reflected in new discoveries。

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/increase-in-gold-exploration-dollars-spent-not-yet-reflected-in-new-discoveries-2018-05-02

A report from S&P shows. $54.3-billion has been allocated to gold exploration over the past decade, almost 60% higher than the $32.2-billion spent over the preceding 18-year period. However, the increase in dollars spent has not yet resulted in more new discoveries or discovered ounces compared with the previous period. Only 215.5-million ounces of gold has been defined in 41 discoveries over the most recent ten years, compared with 1.73-billion ounces in 222 discoveries in the preceding 18 years, the report notes. The total projected gold in discoveries from the past decade remains far below the amounts discovered prior to the 2008/9 financial crisis.” A major factor contributing to the lack of major discoveries is a shift in focus within the exploration sector. “While there is clearly a decline in discovered deposits and ounces, this will not impact the short-term project pipeline,” the report notes.

瞎摸象: New gold is getting more and more scarce. Gold miner is getting squeezed. Price of gold must be moving up just like collectables.
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摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2018-05-17 08:53 回覆:
Goldcorp (GG -0.1%) Chairman Ian Telfer is the latest industry exec to predict the world has reached “peak gold,” saying that mine production will continue to decline because all the major deposits have been discovered. At US$1,300/oz. gold, we found it all. I don’t think there are any more mines out there, or nothing significant. And the exploration records indicate that," Telfer says.

Barrick Gold is "shrinking fast,” Telfer says. “We’re sort of going sideways. Newmont’s going sideways.”

GG's gold output has slipped since 2015 when it produced 3.4M oz., and has produced 2.8M oz. in 2016 and 2.5M oz. in 2017; ABX and NEM also have suffered declines from their peak production earlier this century.

三條線哦哭哭哭哭

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How much gold is in the world?
2018/05/03 01:03
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/04/30/who-are-the-biggest-gold-investors.aspx

The Word Gold Congress estimate that humans have pulled 187,200 tons of gold from the earth. If we melted the gold down and formed it into a cube, it would fit comfortably in the middle of a baseball diamond, which is 90 feet from base to base on each side. While relatively small in size, that cube would be worth a whopping $8 trillion at gold's recent price of around $1,340 an ounce. To further illustrate how rare and valuable gold is, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that there are about 57,000 tons still in the ground to mine. Dig it up and melt it together, and the cube of additionally available gold would only stand as tall as an adult giraffe. Each year the mining industry digs out a little less than 3,500 tons of gold, or roughly 112 million ounces. Another 1,300 tons get recycled each year. Simple math tells that only 16+ years of gold mining left ? Meanwhile, another 1,300 tons get recycled each year. That puts the gold market at roughly $170 billion per year, which, for perspective, pales in comparison to the more than $1.7 trillion oil market. Jewelry industry uses an average of more than 2,000 tons of gold each year.

Gold Price
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摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2019-10-08 19:31 回覆:
https://www.gold.org/about-gold/gold-supply/gold-mining/how-much-gold

GLD

Total above ground stocks: 190,040 tonnes

1. Jewellery: 90,718 tonnes, 47.7%
2. Private investment: 40,035 tonnes, 21.1%
3. Official sector: 32,575 tonnes, 17.1%
4. Other: 26,711 tonnes, 14.1%

5. Below ground reserves: 54,000 tonnes

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炒家 避風港 ? !
2018/03/25 23:06
惊天大丑闻刚刚爆发,特朗普踏上不归路 ? !

http://www.xitouwang.com/huangsheng/12079.html

難怪 川普 近日頻出 蠢招 → 似急著 轉移世人 注意力 ? ! 猜想 仍有怪招 將出?!

華爾街 最怕 動蕩 → 或許 黃金 將成 避風堂 鹹魚翻身 美味 ? !


http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/110851987
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