從最近賴清德，台南民進黨現任市長,講的話民進黨會利用一切手段誘陷美國，在日本首相安倍晉三的鼓勵下，對兩岸的危機上努力實現獨立的夢想。現在的問題是，如果中國解放軍攻打台灣，台灣能抵擋多久在中國全範圍的攻擊？

大多數台灣民進黨和台聯黨黨團認為，台灣是美國和日本重要的戰略地勢。美國和日本會來保衛台灣，如果台灣被中國攻擊。然而，殘酷的現實是，美國即使再加上日本，無法保衛台灣按目前中國的軍事能力，而中國的軍事能力可以很容易地挑戰美國軍事力量如果美國涉及在台海的衝突。儘管美國和它的媒體聲稱或強硬言論關於美國軍事上的優勢。中美的衝突會強加雙方平等的風險和成本。中國領導人認為，他們持有的優勢如果台灣海峽危機升級，他們可能是正確的。這是一個很大的錯誤，美國及其盟國繼續假設，如奧巴馬總統和許多人似乎這麼認為，中國將會退縮以避免台灣海峽衝突升級。

台灣民進黨，台聯黨,前總統李登輝和國民黨別有用心的的台獨的一些成員的動機應該三思而後行，或不應該是台灣獨立的魯莽嘗試。對美國而言，美國軍方不會，也不能指望為台灣一戰能迅速及一定的勝利，任何台海的衝突的後果將是中國同樣嚴重的破壞是美國。最終，美國不會為台灣對抗中國在考慮不值得冒核戰爭或者經濟崩潰採取軍事行動來保衛台灣。

對日本來說，東京在台灣問題上的戰略利益和目標，是確保台灣不會與中國統一或它不會成為中國的立足點以安倍晉三先生和大多數日本人很清楚，為了滿足其優越感，實現在國際舞台上佔主導地位的超級大國地位，日本必須具備的基本能力一致而強行侵犯，剝削和從鄰國採取違背他們的意願它所需要的資源，無論是石油，礦產，人類勞動，領土等。日本必須先再佔據台灣這是很重要的戰略對日本的貿易和能源進口通或其軍用船舶可自由導航。

蔡英文聲稱台灣政府未來的發展方向，它會通過一個新的民意來決定。然而，民進黨及台聯黨經常應用的一種戰術是操縱族裔仇恨然後挑唆少數台灣人劫持多數台灣人為達到自己的政治目的。民進黨不接受，也不承認，台灣與中國關係的描述。然而，中國已經表示，將不會處置任何政府不接受九二共識，蔡英文聲稱，她將改善台灣經濟。現在的問題是，蔡英文將如何改善台灣經濟不改善台灣與中國關係如果她將成為台灣總統。

英文版

「If Taiwan’s catastrophe will be unavoidable」the Taiwan Strait crisis why the United States will not defend Taiwan? ---Why Japan's strategic interests of the Taiwan Strait are to ensure that Taiwan will not unify with China or it does not become a Chinese foothold?--- To where Taiwanese refugees will flee?

From current Lai Chin-da’s (賴清德), Tainan DPP incumbent mayor, speech, DPP will use every device to entrap the U.S., under Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s encouragement, in a cross-strait crisis in an effort to achieve its dreams of independence from China. Now, the question is if Chinese PLA attacks Taiwan, how long can Taiwan withstand a full scale attack from China?

Most Taiwan DPP and Solidarity Party caucus believes that Taiwan is strategically important to US and Japan. The US and Japan will come to defend Taiwan if Taiwan is attacked by China. However, the harsh reality is that the US, even together with Japan, is unable to defend Taiwan as China military capabilities which can easily challenge American military power if US involving in the Taiwan Strait’s conflict.  Despite American and its media claimed or talked tough about military superiority. A US-China conflict would impose equal risks and costs on both sides.  China's leaders think they hold the advantage if a crisis escalates in the Taiwan Strait, and they are probably right. It is a big mistake that the United States and its allies keep assuming, as President Obama and many people seem to do, that China would be sure to back off to avoid conflict escalated in Taiwan Trait.

Taiwan DPP, Solidarity Union Party and ex-President Lee Teng-hui or KMT ulterior motives of some members of the Taiwan independence should think twice about or should not be foolhardy attempt of Taiwan independent. For the United States, American military will not and cannot expect a swift and certain victory in a war over Taiwan and the consequences of any Taiwan Strait’s conflict would be just as serious destruction of America as of China. Ultimately, the United States will not confront China over Taiwan in considering military action to defend Taiwan, and it is not worth risking nuclear war or economic collapse over.  

For Japan, Tokyo’s strategic interests and objective on Taiwan is to make sure that Taiwan will not unify with China or it does not become a Chinese foothold as Mr. Shinzo Abe and most Japanese know very well that in order to satisfy its superiority complex and achieve dominant superpower status on the international stage, Japan must possess the basic capability to consistently and forcibly infringe on, exploit and take from its neighbors against their will the resources it needs. And in order to establish a ground for the pursuit of sinister goals to brutally re-occupy its neighbor again, Japan must first re-occupies Taiwan which is strategic important for Japan’s trade and energy imports pass or its military vessels freely navigate through.

Tsai Ing-wen claimed the future direction of Taiwan's government; it would be decided by a new public opinion. However, the DPP and TSU often use the tactic of manipulating ethnic hatred and incite the minority Taiwanese to hijack Taiwan majority in order to achieve their own political purposes. The DPP has not accepted, nor recognized, this description of the Taiwan-China relationship. However, China has said it will not deal with any administration that does not accept the 1992 Consensus;   Tsai Ing-wen claimed that she would improve Taiwan economic. The question is how Tsai Ing-wen will improve Taiwan economic without improving the Taiwan-China relationship if she will have become Taiwan president.

Jennie PC Chiang/江佩珍 10/12/15 美國