China, Taiwan, and US has an agreement of "continue status quote of Taiwan strait" However, Y Bien want to follow East Timor's independent by popular vote, this make US lost legitimacy of intervention and part of Chinese goverment prefere peace resolving over time can't argue against immediate war.
From June-4th history, the eagal of Chinese goverment can and will mobilize once popular vote for UN (independent) is pass and US-Japan both in the dump can do nothing if China starts action. Don't bet on Olympic boycott, China will use that anger to support war againt Taiwan. This is clear and present danger as far as I can see in US now.
From Global point of view, Y Bien has been the best gift for China re-unification ever. Taiwan lost significant economical levege and respect thus legitmacy in last few year. Y bien is consider corrupt, not trust worthy, and trouble making who is side with Libya, Iran, North Korea, and Osama bin Laden while Hu earn trust who consider a personal friend for Bush and partner in peace for US.
The best "way out" for Taiwan is continue increase positive image and influence in the world ( technology, economy, intellectual, culture) participate and earn recognition and respect like Singapore. Touch world's heart like An Lee for Oscar, Wang for Yankee, and TSMC for ICs. Be a real partner in world peace and well being. Popular vote for UN has everything to loose and nothing to gain for Taiwan. One visit to Libya (foreign break through) has destroy trust from US and tarnish Taiwan's image completely.
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