中國核彈試驗是否殺害幾千人並毀滅未來的世代

Did China’s Nuclear Tests Kill Thousands and Doom Future Generations?

恩維‧托提還記得下塵雨的那一週。那個一九七三年的夏天，他在中國最西部地區新疆省的小學，居住在那裏的大多是中國少數民族中的維吾爾族。他回憶說：「連續三個沒有風也沒有任何風暴的日子，泥土從天而降。天空是死寂的沉默，沒有太陽，沒有月亮。」。當孩子們問發生了什麼事情時，老師告訴他們，有一個土星風暴（土星的中文名稱翻譯成「土壤的星球」）。托提相信她。直到幾年後，他才意識到這是在新疆省內測試核彈爆炸所放出的放射性塵埃。

Enver Tohti remembers the week that it rained dust. That summer of 1973 he was in elementary school in Xinjiang Province, China’s westernmost region, which is inhabited mostly by Uygurs, one of the country’s minority ethnic groups. “There were three days that earth fell from the sky, without wind or any sort of storm. The sky was deadly silent—no sun, no moon,” he recalls. When the kids asked what was happening, the teacher told them that there was a storm on Saturn (its Chinese name translates into “soil planet”). Tohti believed her. It was only years later that he realized it was radioactive dust raised by the test detonation of a nuclear bomb within the province.

三十年過去了，現在是醫生的托提，正在進行調查這個仍在付出代價的事件，而這個事件是中國政府堅決否認的。一九六四年至一九九六年中，絲綢之路上新疆的羅布泊進行的至少四十次所放出的輻射，可能造成幾十萬人死亡。新疆有將近兩千萬人居住，托提認為這些人提供了獨特的機會給我們深入瞭解長期輻射影響，這些影響包括了很少被研究的，一代一代傳下來之後的基因效應。他在日本的札幌醫科大學和物理學家高田‧淳設立羅布泊計劃來為這些後果進行評估。

Three decades on, Tohti, now a medical doctor, is launching an investigation into the toll still being taken—and one that the Chinese government steadfastly refuses to acknowledge. A few hundred thousand people may have died as a result of radiation from at least 40 nuclear explosions carried out between 1964 and 1996 at the Lop Nur site in Xinjiang, which lies on the Silk Road. Almost 20 million people reside in Xinjiang, and Tohti believes that they offer unique insight into the long-term impact of radiation, including the relatively little studied genetic effects that may be handed down over generations. He is establishing the Lop Nur project at Sapporo Medical University in Japan with physicist Jun Takada to evaluate these consequences.

安德斯‧蒂默勒指出﹕「這是一個悲哀的機會，但它仍然是一個機會，既學到新的東西，也複製我們認為我們在別的地方所看到的情形。」蒂默勒是車諾比研究計劃（Chernobyl Research Initiative，CRI）的位於巴黎的國家科學研究中心共同主持人。

“It is a sad opportunity, but it is an opportunity nonetheless to both learn something new and replicate what we think we are seeing elsewhere,” observes Anders Møller, who co-directs the Chernobyl Research Initiative (CRI) and is based at the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris.

高田計算過，在新疆輻射的最高劑量，超過一九八六年車諾比原子爐的屋頂熔化後所測量到的劑量。新疆當地大部分損害來自於一九六零和一九七零年代的爆炸。高田在他發表的書「中國核試驗」（China Nuclear Tests, Iryokagakusha，2009）中提出他的發現指出，這些爆炸將放射性物質以及周圍沙漠的沙混合起來像雨一般地降下。其中有些是三百萬噸的爆炸，它們超過投到廣島的原子彈兩百倍以上。

Takada has calculated that the peak radiation dose in Xinjiang exceeded that measured on the roof of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor after it melted down in 1986. Most damage to Xinjiang locals came from detonations during the 1960s and 1970s, which rained down a mixture of radioactive material and sand from the surrounding desert. Some were three-megaton explosions, 200 times larger than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, says Takada, who published his findings in a book, Chinese Nuclear Tests (Iryo­ka­gakusha, 2009).

高田曾經在1990年代初期就美國、前蘇聯和法國的測試進行過輻射效應研究。他被接壤於新疆的哈薩克斯坦科學家所邀請，評估中國核彈測試的風險。高田被禁止進入中國，所以他研究一九九五年至二零零二年在蘇聯所紀錄的爆炸規模和風速、哈薩克斯坦所量到輻射強度，進而設計出電腦模型。他再將這個模型延申並使用新疆人口的密度來估計， 194,000 人會死於急性輻射照射。然後，大約一百二十萬人所受到的輻射劑量會高到足以誘發白血病、嚴重的癌症和胎兒損害。「這個只是一個保守、最小數字的估計」，高田說。

He devised a computer model to estimate fallout patterns using Soviet rec­ords of detonation size and wind velocity as well as radiation levels measured in Kazakhstan from 1995 to 2002. Takada was not allowed into China, so he extrapolated his model and used infor­mation about the population density in Xinjiang to estimate that 194,000 people would have died as a result of acute radiation exposure. Around 1.2 million received doses high enough to induce leukemia, solid cancers and fetal damage. “My estimate is a conservative minimum,” Takada says.

對於托提來說，這些數字並不令人意外。令人嘲諷的是，他在十幾歲時因為他的省被選擇為中國科技和軍事進展的測試標地而感到自豪。在他成為醫生之後，他看到一個高得不成比例的患者數字，這些病患感染的包括惡性淋巴瘤，肺癌、白血病、退化性疾病和畸形嬰兒，他的看法因而改變。「許多醫生懷疑這些是和測試有關連，但我們什麼都不能說」托提回憶說。 「我們被上級警告要放棄我們的研究。」

The figures came as little surprise to Tohti. Ironically, as a teenager, he was proud that his province was chosen for tests marking China’s technological and military progress. His view changed when he became a physician and saw a disproportionate number of malignant lymphomas, lung cancers, leukemia cases, degenerative disorders and babies born with deformities. “Many doctors suspected this was connected to the tests, but we couldn’t say anything,” Tohti recalls. “We were warned away from researching by our superiors.”

關於這些，托提要到一九九八年以醫療培訓為表面理由移居土耳其之後，才能公開說出。在那裡，他加入了一個英國紀錄片製片人的團隊。他將這些紀錄片製片人以遊客身份偷偷送回新疆。在那裏，他們一起發掘出的醫療記錄顯示，這一省的癌症發病率高於全國平均水平百分之三十到百分之三十五。

Tohti was only able to speak out in 1998, when he moved to Turkey, ostensibly as part of his medical training. There he joined forces with a team of British documentary filmmakers whom he smuggled back into Xinjiang as tourists. Together they uncovered medical records showing that cancer rates were 30 to 35 percent higher in the province than the national average.

托提和田中的羅布泊計劃，可以由分析其他集體輻射中毒來填補許多的空白。在研究車諾比事件的後續結果之後，穆勒和他的同事發現，該地區仍然顯示出動物人口數量顯著的下降以及基因突變的增加。這個和更早的野生動物的復原報告並不相同。

Tohti and Tanaka’s Lop Nur project could fill in many gaps left open by analyses of other mass radiation poisonings. In studying the Chernobyl aftermath, Møller and his colleagues found that animal populations in the area still show a significant decline in numbers and an increase in genetic mutations, in contrast to earlier reports of recovering wildlife.

根據設在南卡羅來納大學的另一個車諾比研究計劃主任蒂莫西‧莫蒙森的解釋，因為相對上比較少的時間以及比較少的人口受到災害的影響，要精確地找到對於人類一代一代之間的影響被證明是困難的。儘管如此，他說，累積的數據顯示出「生活在受污染地區的人受到嚴重的遺傳基因破壞」。因為如此，蒙森對於用羅布泊計劃來建立一個遺傳證據的檔案是樂觀的。穆勒和田中都同意，困難的是要解析出對於第二、第三代的影響是遺傳基因突變引起的，或是因為接觸到受污染的水和土壤所造成的。

But pinning down generational effects in humans has proved difficult, because relatively little time has passed since the disaster and a small number of people were affected, explains Timothy Mousseau, a CRI co-director based at the University of South Carolina. Still, accumulating data suggest “that there is serious genetic damage in people living in these contaminated areas,” he says. For this reason, Mousseau is optimistic that the Lop Nur project will build up a dossier of genetic evidence. The difficulty, Møller and Tanaka agree, will be deciphering whether effects on second and third generations are inherited genetic mutations or are caused by exposure to contaminated water and soil.

對於托提來說，他的最優先是在幫助病人。今年三月，法國政府宣布，它將賠償在波利尼西亞進行核子試驗下的受害民眾。二零零八年，中國國家通訊社新華社報導，中國政府將以不公佈的金額補貼參加核子測試的軍事人員。托提希望中國的這個援助能夠擴展到受影響的平民，他說這些平民有百分之八十的人沒有健康保險。 「現在，他們無力支付醫療費。」他說。「因此，所有他們能做的，就是等待死亡。」

For Tohti, the priority is helping the sick. In March the French government announced that it would compensate civilian victims of its nuclear tests, which were conducted in Polynesia. In 2008 the Chinese state news service Xinhua reported that its government is paying undisclosed subsidies to military personnel involved in the tests. Tohti wants aid extended to affected civilians, adding that 80 percent do not have health care. “Right now, they can’t afford treatment,” he says. “So all they can do is wait to die.”

阿根廷在布宜諾斯艾利斯核子管制局的阿貝爾‧岡薩雷斯（Abel Gonzalez）評論說，羅布泊計劃只是國際上的冰山一角。輻射研究人員易於接觸到的核爆地點只有三個––美國的比基尼環礁試驗場，蘇聯在哈薩克斯坦的塞米巴拉金斯克（Semipalatinsk）的試驗場，以及法國的在波利尼西亞的試驗場。而這些地區只代表了全世界大約五百個大氣層試驗中的一小部分。岡薩雷斯說﹕「我們有道義上的責任來調查所有的核子試驗場，」。理所當然的，對於受到羅布泊試驗影響的新疆人民，從來也沒有人說過比這個更為真實的話。

The Lop Nur project is just the tip of an international iceberg, remarks Abel Gonzalez of the Argentine Nuclear Regulatory Authority in Buenos Aires. Radiation researchers have had easy access to only three sites where nuclear blasts occurred—the U.S.’s site Bikini Atoll, the Soviet Union’s Semipalatinsk site in Kazakhstan and France’s site in Polynesia—and these areas represent just a small fraction of the approximately 500 atmospheric tests the world has seen. “We have a moral responsibility to investigate all nuclear test sites,” Gonzalez says. Certainly for the Xinjiang people affected by the Lop Nur tests, truer words have never been spoken.

當核彈丟向人口

反覆暴露於輻射影響的精子細胞是不是受到的影響，導致突變一代又一代地傳下去呢？這是我們希望通過羅布泊計劃能夠得到的答案。另外兩個造成眾多人口暴露於核能輻射的主要事件是丟在廣島和長崎的原子彈。輻射影響研究基金會的會長羅伊‧休爾（Roy Shore）指出，關於這兩個事件，它們對於倖存者的下一代沒有產生影響。但他補充說，曝露於幅射的形態並不相同。「原子彈是一個幾乎是瞬間的曝光，」休爾解釋。「我們仍然需要受到幅射一次又一次感染的可靠數據。長期來說，這個可能有不同的影響。」

When Population Bombs Go Nuclear

Does repeated exposure to radiation affect germ-line cells such that the same mutations get passed on, generation after generation? That is one question the Lop Nur project hopes to answer. The other two major instances of a large population exposure to radiation—the atomic bombs dropped over Hiroshima and Nagasaki—have produced no generational effects in survivors, points out Roy Shore, chief of research at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation in Hiroshima. But he adds that the exposure patterns vary. “The atomic bomb was an almost instantaneous exposure,” Shore explains. “We still need good data on radiation that has been delivered time and time again, over a long period—there may be different effects.”