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| 2011/09/23 14:07:20瀏覽487｜回應0｜推薦1 | |
經濟學家與企業家是很不同的, 讀者應該記得零和的社會(zero-sum society)那本書吧？ 作者便是MIT(麻省理工學院)的名教授 Lester Thurow, 該書出版於1980年, 其後他又寫了 Zero-Sum Solution (1985), Head to Head(1992), The Future of Capitalism(1996), Building Wealth(1999), 以及Fortune Favors the Bold(中譯“勇者致富”, 天下出版)。 “勇者致富”談的是全球化中, 如何邁向繁榮, “What we must do to build a new and lasting prosperity.” 關於全球化(Globalization), Thurow 教授比喻 “much like the biblical Tower of Babel.” 就像舊約聖經裡的 Babel 塔, 即使開建, 仍紛爭不斷, 贊成反對, 意見不一, “ This economic Tower of Babel is being built without a set of construction plans. The necessary architectural drawings aren’t even in the process of being drafted.” 全盤的工程計畫缺乏, 設計圖更付之闕如。而且各人因背景立場不同, 闡釋全球化觀點當然也不同, “ Globalization means different things to different people. Arguments for and against it are often self-contradictory.” 是因為 Lost forest for the trees? (見樹不見林), “ All reflect some aspect of the truth. No one can have all these perspectives simultaneously because no one can see the entire tower or the entire truth.” 倒像不識廬山真面目, 只緣身在此山中。 該書內容非常紮實, 思考深入肯綮, 讓人讀之不忍釋手, 更絕的是, 書中提到兩項錯誤, 第一項作者挺危言聳聽的, 問讀者堪稱二十世紀商業史最大宗的決策錯誤是什麼？（ What is the biggest business mistake made in the last half century? ) 這答案真的是出乎我的想像(beyond my imagination), Thurow 教授語出驚人的說, “ Steve Jobs’ decision not to sell the Apple Operating system.” , wow, 居然指的是蘋果電腦的 OS 系統之機會成本(opportunity cost), 因為根據他估計截至2000年三月為止, 總值達5590億美金的天文數字, 以一位經濟學家的觀點, 這的確是有點打誑語, 他說 “He(Steve) had, and perhaps still has, a better operating system than Microsoft. He could have been Bill Gates with a company worth 582 billion rather than having a company with the 23 billion valuation of Apple Computer.” 這會是像金童Steve Jobs這種企業家(entrepreneur)的想法嗎？今日筆者為文時, 蘋果電腦已飆破每股400美元, 而Microsoft才25美元, 早已超過其市值甚多,Thurow 教授是否也要像他在本書(Fortune Favors the Bold 原文 p.76)一樣, 再寫一本書勇敢承認他當年另一本書(Head to Head, 中譯“世紀之爭“)中對日本經濟的嚴重誤判? 。他對自己的大誤判寫道, “I am sometimes asked what my biggest mistake has been as a professional economist. What I did get most wrong? There is an easy answer. In the early 1990s I wrote a book, Head to Head, about the coming economic battles among Japan, Europe, and the United States for global economic supremacy. The Japan stock market has already crashed and land values were plunging. I mentioned these events but moved on without much comment because I assumed that Japan, like the United States in the savings and loan crisis that had just occurred , would smoothly pick up the pieces and move on. I could not have been more wrong.” 其實, 經濟現象, 股市, 氣象, 甚至人口, 都不易預測, 偏偏一些學者特別偏好此道。 另一樁歷史的跫音, 登在The Wall Street Journal, 一篇記者Janet Guyon訪問當年把Apple金童Steve Jobs 逐出門牆的老頑童John Scully, 題目為“John Sculley on Steve Jobs and the Experience of a Lifetime” 。文前的小段注解“ In 1983, when John Sculley was 43, he had a choice. He could remain head of Pepsi-Cola Co. and jockey with several other executives to be named successor to then-PepsiCo Chief Executive Donald Kendall in a typical corporate executive shootout. Or, as Apple's Steve Jobs put it to him then, he could give up selling "sugar water" and "come with me and change the world." 其實Scully當時是PepsiCo的女婿, 後來也離婚, 並把Pepsi公司搞得烏烟瘴氣, 他也許仍以為他是Brutus , 可以說出像“ It is not that I love Caesar less, but that I love Rome more." 那種荒誕無稽的話, 但是聽 Steve Jobs 在 Stanford 大學的畢業典禮致詞便知其憤怒, "How can you get fired from a company you started?", (這是商業史上最大的事件之一), " As Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me" (Steve Jobs 雖怒卻仍未貶低當年他引入室的狼John Scully) 接著他說“ and for the first year or so things went well," " But then our visions of future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out." （合作蜜月居然只持續一年）" " When we did, our board of directors sided with him, so at 30 I was out, and very publicly out." （居然公開的被踢出自己草創的公司！）當時他真是萬念俱灰, 他說“ What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating." （你可以想像Steve Jobs 有多恨 John Scully.) 好, 我們現在看一下Janet Guyon 問的問題有多厲害： 1. What are you doing now? (你現在多有搞頭？） 2. Did you have mentors? Who were they? （因為Scully 說他現在當一些企業家心靈導師, mentors, 好像也沒什搞頭, 那些人究竟有何來頭？） 3. Let's go back to 1983, when you made the decision to go to Apple. Many people on the East Coast thought you were crazy to give up the chance to run PepsiCo and move to Silicon Valley, which was much less developed than it is today. (記者開始把時間拉回到過去, 1983年也就是Lisa 電腦推出那年） 4. How were you thinking about Apple from a career perspective? Did you think that would build your career? 5. You said you aren't a great manager. What makes a great manager? 6. Was it the right move to go to Apple? 7. What did you think your role was? 8. So the key to success is really knowing your business? 9. Were you a mentor to Steve or was he a mentor to you? 10. Two years after you came to Apple, Steve left after the board removed him as head of the Macintosh division. How was it for you when he left? 這題 Scully 回答“My assumption when I joined Apple was Steve and I would be partners and he would be the visionary. not something I had ever expected. I had to turn to other people to do things that Steve could do instinctively. I didn't have the natural instincts of how to create computer products that Steve did.After Steve left, we continued to follow his first principles that you build products that start with the user experience and they must be complete end-to-end systems. It was still about magic.” 真是老頑童硬柪呀！ 11. You haven't spoken to Steve since you left Apple, or rather, he hasn't spoken to you. 12. What did Steve do then? 13. Have you reached out? 14. How would you handle a situation like that today? 15. You often call Steve a visionary. What makes a visionary CEO? 16. What would you tell someone coming out of Wharton now? 關於第 15題 , Scully 回答“ Visionary CEOs need permission to fail. But they also need to be so in touch with internal details that they can quickly recognize when something isn't working and then have the leadership talent to adjust in-flight. Unfortunately, successful CEOs usually live in a bubble with people telling them what they want to hear. Successful CEOs often become victims of their own success. It's so easy to misinterpret why you are successful. Good luck is incredibly important. Visionary CEOs are also optimists, they have incredible curiosity. They never give up. If they fail, they try to learn from the experience and start again.“ 真是乏善可陳！由於Scully 說他是名校 Wharton 畢業, Janet 也讓他有面子, 問了第16題, 他回答：“Go work for a private company and look for an industry which is attracting really bright, talented people who you will compete with and who you will also learn from.Look for companies that have identified a big, juicy problem to solve and have turned it into a noble cause.Private companies are small and their only reason for being is to innovate. Large companies exist to scale, so middle managers are empowered to say "No," but not to say "Yes."And the companies might not be in the U.S. I think a lot of the future will happen outside the U.S., in Asia or in South America.There wasn't such a choice when I got out of business school, there wasn't venture capital or start-up companies.If I were graduating today, I would never have gone to work for a large corporation, even one the size of PepsiCo. “ 唉, 了無新意! 無怪乎讀者罵聲連連, 但不管怎麼說都已成歷史跫音！
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