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Melt-up and melt-down
2021/11/28 06:40:58瀏覽77|回應0|推薦0
噴出和趕底

金融市場裡面的一些英文單字, 如果要翻成中文, 硬要按照英文單字直譯來翻, 有時候翻出來的味道會有點可愛. 比如說我們常看到的 melt-up, melt-down 這兩個字. 一般是翻成融漲和融降. 可是到底是 融化掉漲勢, 還是融化掉跌勢, 一開始可能很難搞懂. 前者是所謂的加速”噴出”, 通常是在多頭行情末升段(last gasp/hurrah)發生, 股價在緩步慢慢墊高以後, 到最後大家看回不回, 一個小小的利多, 空手沒有股票的人, 忍耐不住了, 不管公司的實質盈餘狀況和基本面(fundamentals), 就先倉促買進再說, 建立多頭部位 (build up long positions), 追價 (chase price), 怕錯過這個行情 (miss out of the rally), 自然就會形成噴出行情 (melt-up, blow-off..),. 可是往往接著極速反轉向下(downward reversal / correction). 這個時候如果想要描述市場加速噴出, 同時你有預期會緊接著觸頂反轉 (peak out, top out), 就可以用melt-up這個字.

至於後者 melt-down, 也就是我們常說的空頭市場末段的加速”趕底”, 一個利空出來, 你會看到套牢(trapped)投資人認輸 (capitulation/throw in the towel), 會造成失去理智的恐慌, 停損賣壓 (panic, stop-loss selling), 最後賣壓衰竭 (sell-off fatigue). 可是往往緊接著 v型反轉 (V--shaped reversal/bounce-back/rebound). 有些人也會把melt-down翻成金融危機, 但是我認為這個字還不至於用到描述所謂危機的程度.

在這裡要特別提醒的是, melt-up通常只是用在價格上漲而已. 可是melt-down這個字, 它延伸出來的用法就比較多. 你可以用它來形容一間公司的倒閉, 一個機器的故障 (machine melt-down), 或者是經濟的衰退 (economic melt-down). 所以有時候英文單字很好玩, 我們不要一下子認為相對的字, 比如說melt-up, melt-down這兩個字, 就假設相對的情況都可以互相套用. 但是其實不是, melt-up只是用在噴出的行情, 它延伸出來的用法不多. 好比說刻意低估財測目標 (to low-ball the guidance), 我們自然會想說有沒有刻意調高目標(high-ball)這個單字, 但是其實沒有這種用法. 所以英文單字和中文不一樣, 中文有彈性可以造詞, 但是英文就不必然.

Melt-up

Is the Fed on the verge of sparking a stock-market ‘melt-up’? The Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut rates at the end of July, but don’t expect a melt-up in equities, usually marked by a powerful rally followed by a substantial selloff.

Melt-down

Officials look into X-ray machine meltdown. One of the X-ray security machines at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport was damaged after it sent out heavy smoke early morning. But no extensive destruction was caused after the incident was quickly contained.

Bernake said governments of the G-7 had all agreed that in order to halt the financial meltdown, it is okay to introduce QE, along with ensuing monetary fluctuations.

U.S. stocks finished with substantial losses after an afternoon meltdown had the Dow industrials plunging 992.6 points, its biggest intraday drop on record.

Investors around the world have been spooked by the melt-down in securities related to U.S. subprime mortgages.



我的臉書社團 - 台灣財經股市中英文句型範例
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