歲末年終, 又是匆匆的一年, 就以這一篇為今年的最後樂章(finale). 全球股市在這個階段, 籠罩在美國的升息陰影下, 應該是高處不勝寒. 我的看法是調息不會那麼快的有影響, 而馬上形成一個空頭市場, 因為升息的動作總是在經濟成長的環境下產生, 給多頭留了一個安慰的藉口. 多頭還會看一看公司的獲利有沒有成長, 抵銷升息幅度. 另外, 套一句老美常講的話, - 作頭/打底是一個過程, 不是一個事件 (Topping out/bottoming out is a process, not an event). 市場裡面的一些專家(guru), 還是有些深具信心的. 至於有沒有元月行情(January effect rally), 那又是另外一個議題.

在這最近的文章中, How to make money in the stock market from the Fed’s next move.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-make-money-from-the-feds-next-move-2017-12-12.

這位看多的作者認為當美國宣布調高利率後的30分鐘內, 所造成的股市下跌, 是一個自然反應(knee-jerk reaction), 激情多於事實(more hypes than facts). 這種下跌(plunge), 只是無事生非, 庸人自擾之(much ado about nothing), 市場會馬上反轉(reverse)修正回來(get corrected), 下跌反而是一個獲利(make money, profit from)的機會, 可以去搶短作投機性的交易(short-term trade for speculative money).

在下面句子中, 作者寫到他邀請不相信他看法的人, 在不同的利率之下, 算一算未來幾年內, 一些被折現(discounted value)的財務數據, 包括股價, 配息, 獲利等等. 他認為不管是數個月的提早或者延緩(acceleration or delay in timing)調高利率一碼, 對這些數據的當期現值(present value)而言, 並不會有太多的差異. 當然他認為太早的調高利率會造成一些現實的後果, 比如說阻擋公司的資本投資. 但是一個杜克大學的財務教授, 排除,漠視這個機率(discounted that possibility), 認為上市公司過去10年內, 或者比2008年的金融風暴之前有信心(upbeat). 換句話說, 自從川普當選以後比以前有信心, 而且是更加的有信心(even more so), 因為稅改立法可能會通過.

I invite those of you who don’t believe me to calculate the discounted value of any financial series over coming years, be they stock prices, dividends, corporate earnings, and so on, assuming different interest rates. You’ll find that a several-month acceleration or delay in the timing of a quarter-point rate increase makes hardly any difference to its present value.

To be sure, there are other possible reasons why a premature rate hike could have real-world consequences, such as by discouraging corporate capital investment. But, in an interview, Duke University finance professor John Graham discounted that possibility. Graham is the director of the Duke CFO Global Business Outlook survey, and he told me that CFOs are now more upbeat than they have been in a decade — since before the 2008-09 financial crisis, in other words. He added that they’ve been upbeat ever since President Donald Trump’s election, but have become even more so as tax reform legislation has become increasingly likely to pass.

我會想寫這一篇, 主要是討論”discount”這個字, 很有趣, 但是常常讓人誤解用法, 有下面幾項. 所舉例的句子和現在時事無關, 會混淆的地方主要是第4和第5項.

1. 零售業所謂的打折, 或者折扣戰(discount war), 週年慶銷售折扣(anniversary sale discount), 促銷折扣(promotional discount) ..

1a. 當名詞用的時候的寫法:

(afford/apply/give/offer/provide…) a 30% discount of prices to customers. 提供30%的折扣給客戶.

1b.過去分詞當形容詞用

The 3C vendor introduces some heavily discounted products such as cellphones and related accessories.

這個3C經銷商推出一些大打折扣的產品, 比如說手機還有相關配件.

1c. 當不及物動詞用

Merchants keep their inventories lean this holiday season to avoid revisiting the year-ago scenario where many ultimately had to discount more than 70% to clear excess stock.

在這個假期季節裡, 零銷商保持庫存的精簡, 以避免重複去年最終不得不的清倉動作, 很多家給了多於70%的折扣.

Brand-name food makers have been discounting less or raising prices to offset rising commodity prices.

品牌食品業者已經少打折扣, 或者調高價格, 以便應付上升的大宗物質價格.

2: 貼現現金流（Discounted Cash Flow, DCF）.

Warren Buffett will often discount the free cash flow of a company on the basis of the risk-free rate to assess a stock’s value.

運用無風險利率的基礎下, 巴菲特會時常貼現一個公司的現金流量, 以便評估它的股價價值.

3. 低於, 折價

ABC stock’s is trading at a discount to its arch-rival DEF.

ABC股價低於它的主要對手DEF

ABC priced a total of 10mn-share equivalent GDRs at NT$22.5 per unit, representing a 10% discount over its close price of NT$25 on Taiex Monday.

ABC公司以GDR發行的一千萬股現股, 週一定價GDR在每一單位台幣22.5元, 比在台灣交易所掛牌的現股收盤價25元折價10%.

4. 漠視 低估, 不全相信, 懷疑地看待

Scholars discount the efficacy of tax-reduced wage schemes.

學者眨低了降稅引導的薪資方案的效果.

Most analysts covering Apple have learned to discount what is often referred to as “lowball” estimates issued by the company itself each quarter.

大部分追蹤蘋果股價的分析師, 已經學會了不在意蘋果本身發佈的”刻意低估”的每一季財測.

U.S. stock futures falter, turning negative as investors quickly discount Ireland's bailout.

由於投資人很快的忽略了對愛爾蘭的救援行動, 美股期指走勢步履蹣跚, 轉而下跌.

Analysts are discounting the potential profit contribution from emerging markets because of their recent economic volatility, and focus on the more dominant U.S. market.

由於最近新興市場地區的經濟不穩定, 分析師低估了這些地區的獲利貢獻度, 而是注意更加重要的美國市場.

5. 預計到, 反映 (Discount含有這層意思的時候, 前面的主詞多是market, stock 和 prices.)  

The risk for investors is that the U.S. economy does actually fall into a “double-dip” (recession) and not the “soft landing scenario” which the markets are currently discounting.

投資人的風險是美國經濟實際上是再次跌入衰退, 並不是現在市場預計的軟著陸劇本.

The stock market is supposed to discount the future, and is also a forward-looking discounting mechanism.

股市被視為反映未來, 而且是一個有前瞻性的反映機制.

Price/Market action discounts everything.

股價/市場行為反映一切.

(英文的技術分析書, 開宗明義一定是說這一句話, 當然也是技術分析師所必須相信的第一個哲理.也就是說所有的, 可能的消息, 基本面, 籌碼面等等, 都反應到價格走勢, 型態裡面了, 價格決定一切)

敬祝 2018年身體健康, 操作順利, 事事順心...

引用一個大陸有名的歷史老師, 袁騰飛先生節目中的用語: 2018, 我們依然渺小, 小到必須宏觀.