蘋果股價上週煎熬渡過史上新產品發表週最差的表現. (Apple shares endured worst week of an iPhone launch.) 這個疲軟(weakness)反應了市場擔心需求在 iPhone 8等等新產品會讓人失望, 因為很多人會等待11月份發表的iPhone X. 而這種等待的心態是緊接著蘋果手錶的技術問題以及來自於Google的競爭.

The weakness reflects concerns that demand for the new iPhone 8, Apple Watch Series 3 and Apple TV 4K, which become available Friday, will disappoint, as many wait for the iPhone X due in November. That comes after reports of technical trouble with the Watch, and concerns over competition from Alphabet Inc.’s Google.

當然, 也造成台股上週的蘋概股順勢同步(synchronize) 蘋果股價疲軟. 蘋果和Nasdaq的背離走勢, 意味著電子股後市的上漲會碰到麻煩. (Apple’s divergence from Nasdaq could spell trouble for tech stocks’ rally.) 也有人認為蘋果不會再像以前那樣, 可以擔綱美股創新高的背後不可擋的力量. (Apple may not be the unstoppable force behind stock-market records it once was.)

但是市場總是多空交雜 (mixed reaction). 一個看多的分析師 Michael Olson認為, 蘋果這次股價的疲軟, 呈現在iPhone 8 初期銷售時, 可以說是短空長多(shorter-term pain for long-term gain)的現象. 他同時堅稱他的加碼的評等, 並將目標價從190 調高到196. 他認為市場的夾雜著對iPhone X的傾向 (mix shift), 即便會對iPhone 8 銷售造成一些傷害(detriment), 其實也是對蘋果股價的發展是正面的. 他同時重新調整蘋果手機500,000支的季銷售量落點時機, 會從本來認為的今年第三季9月份底止, 改成今年的第四季或者明年的第一季. 屆時蘋果的獲利將會拉高, 因為iPhone X平均售價將會比iPhone 8 或者8 Plus高出32%.

But analyst Michael Olson at Piper Jaffray said he believes that any weakness in early sales of the iPhone 8 could be just a case of “short-term pain for long-term gain.” He affirmed his overweight rating on Apple’s stock, but raised his stock price target to $196, which is 28% above Thursday’s closing price of $153.39, from $190. “It’s noteworthy that a mix shift towards iPhone X, even to the detriment of near-term iPhone 8 units, is positive for Apple,” Olson wrote in a note to clients.

Olson reworked the timing of his iPhone sales estimates, moving 500,000 units from the September quarter into December and into March 2018. That should actually boost Apple’s earnings, as Olson estimates the retail blended average selling price for the iPhone X will be 32% higher than the iPhone 8 or 8 Plus.

註: 平常我們可以這樣寫短空(short-term negative/bearish) 長多(long-term positive/bullish). short-term pain but long-term gain也是常看到. 當然, 這裡的pain是指痛苦, 而gain是指得利. 如果是說短多長空, 把單字換一下就好了.

註: 就線論線 (technically speaking), 蘋果短期量價走勢(price-volume pattern) 確實比較不利, 不過上週五在150塊附近收下影線(lower shadow line), 找到了中期的支撐點(find a mid-term bottom), 多少也許是個心理上的慰藉(silver lining). 蘋概股投資人需要等待 iPhone X 在11月 3號發表, 如果只是售價高, 缺少一些令人叫好的因素(wow factor), 這就有點讓人煎熬, 恐怕空方又佔上風了. (Bears will gain the upper hands.)

註:  申明, 證實, 堅稱 affirm, 也可以用"維持, 重申" reiterate, regurgitate ..

註: add, buy, outperform, overweight .. 外資的這些看多的評等,其實意思都是一樣, 就是叫客人買進.