近来经济危机话题在《天下》很热门，也来凑个热闹。

继读完YST的《牛年新春談世界大局：中美的消長》系列文章后，前几天又读了美國《時代》周刊的经济专栏作家Justin　Fox的文章《對经济前景乐观的5個理由》。对照过后，觉得想作一个评论。

首先这个经济专栏作家所指出的美国经济危机的核心要害，与市长的观点几乎不谋而合。一些问题市长甚至在一年或数年前就已经在《天下》发表。有意思的是，这个Fox在危机呈现之前的2007年和2008年一直在作“杞人忧天”状　－　“妖言惑众”地警告大家“狼就要来了”。而到今天“哀鴻遍野”之时他却出来哈哈一笑说“安啦，狼外婆是不吃人的”。听众不知是该哭还是该笑？

且来看看他说的“明天会更好”的理由是什么？

1。股市不再被高估

资产泡沫破灭，股价大跌，意味著里面的水份被榨掉了，降到了较合理价位。虽不敢说已探底，但不会再被不合理地高估了。房价可能还未探底，但也已經接近了。这些都意味著資产回报的前景已经改善了。

同时，美國人学到了一個功课：在未來的几十年里，买卖房产和金融產品不會帶來持久的繁荣。真正能帶來繁荣的只有干活。

【评论】好象市长在两三年前就在一篇文章里指出，美国人玩的这个根本就是类似“老鼠会”的金钱游戏，对整个社会是不会有任何增加价值的（added value）。然而入局者就如吸毒上瘾似的乐此不彼地玩，直到大厦轰然倒塌才明白过来。不听市长言，吃亏在眼前。

美国人“有所成长和进步”了，这是第一个可以乐观的理由。

2。政府介入

財政部、联储、白宮和国会，确实都在联手救市，也犯了许多错误　－　有些事情做得太快，有些事情又处理得太慢。一些不贊成政府救市的政治气候，在一定程度上束缚了政府的手脚。不过，与早年的大蕭條時代相比，政府目前的应对，已經聪明得多，也有力得多。

【评论】这一点市长在《中美的消長》一文中已论述了，甚至在更早的文章中也提到。索羅斯在上世纪九十年代的亚州金融风暴时指责中国政府介入“自由市場经济”，而出手救香港股市。然而到了自己面临生死关头之时，他总算“明白”过来：任何政府在维持国家稳定这个层面上负有不可推卸的责任，就算是自己定下的“游戏规则”也照样可以推翻。

美国政府已经介入，这算是第二个可以乐观的理由。

3。消費者正在迅速地适应新的经济現实

造成此次金融危机的原因，最简单的一种解释，就是美國消費者的开支超出其收入。但是，这却以戏剧化般地结束了：美國消費者（2008年）第四季度的开支下降速度达到29年以來最快的。2005至2007年，美國的儲蓄率一直处於接近0％的水平，但是2009年1月却达到5％，是自1995年以來的最高水平。这样快速的节省是导致经济严重衰退的主要原因。但是只要消費者不是把钱袋攥得太紧而导致经济全面停顿（若是那样政府必然介入），从中長期来看，经济的发展还是健康的。

【评论】市长在以前的一篇文章里警告过，美国人若想解决问题，必须改变他们那挥霍无度，寅吃卯粮的生活方式。没想到这么快，他们都变成了市长的好学生。而且表现得超过市长的期望　－　卯吃寅粮。

最近在网络上陆陆续续看到好几篇关于美国人现在节俭的文章。

其中一篇是这样说的：

“金融风暴已改变了许多美国人的消费观念，不少人不敢‘今天花明天的钱’，而是未雨绸缪，为可能到来的更艰苦日子储备‘过冬粮’。肯伊是美国一家杂志的资深编辑。金融危机爆发以来，他个人资产损失惨重，股票市值‘被拦腰截断’，退休金账户缩水近三分之一，房屋市值损失超过四分之一。‘我要把每一分不必花的钱攒起来，只有增加财富才能增加我的安全感’，他说。

在美国，感受危机并被迫过‘紧日子’的人远非肯伊一个。美国广播公司开展的最新民意调查结果显示，三分之二的受访者已削减日常开支；57%的受访者认为经济现状是引发他们生活压力的原因之一；超过四分之一的人称自己‘严重’焦虑。

一名因所供职医院倒闭而失业的女士说：‘奥巴马鼓励人们多花钱，但只要看看现实的经济状况以及朝不保夕的工作，我们自然会在消费与储蓄之间做出恰当选择。’

汉德斯是美国著名家电和电子产品销售商Bestbuy公司的职员，他对美国人减少开支的体会最为直接。汉德斯说，以往他的柜台前每天都会涌现不少消费者。不过，伴随危机深化，顾客一天比一天少。

虽然节俭是美德，但消费者大幅削减开支对经济的不利影响也不容忽视。‘多储蓄，少花钱’的生活方式有可能使美国经济进一步恶化。”

另一篇是这样说的：

“杨先生一家从台湾移民来美已经7年了。他们是一个小型的家庭公司。主要经营保健品与化妆品。前几年经济情况不错的时候，杨先生的公司业绩不错，每年销售量都在成长。他在2004年租了更大的货仓，把公司搬到了更好的地区，公司的职员也多聘请了几个。

随着美国房贷逐渐刮起风暴，很多人家因为付不起贷款而导致房子被银行收走，成为法拍屋。杨家的公司订单开始减少。在整个2008年，公司的营业额每个月都在减少。至圣诞节后，就几乎没再接到任何订单! 现在，2009年的1月，2月，不但完全没有收入，还得付仓储费，员工薪水，各项公司开销，如水电煤气，电话网路，种种费用繁多。花光了2008年所有的收入还不够填满，从3月份起，公司开始裁员了。

唯一能让杨家公司还能喘气、存活下来的财源，竟然是他们在中国大陆的几个代销点! 令他们意外的是，不管美国和欧洲的经济情况如何差，中国人好像没受到什么影响?那些保健品，美容护肤品，照样在中国每日出货。

杨先生满脸无奈地说: ‘还好有中国市场啊! 要不然，往后的这一年，日子还不知道该怎么过?将来要做生意，得在中国有分公司才行。否则遇到现在这样的情况，就死定了!还好，我现在还有中国的业绩养美国。不过，日子还会更惨淡啊。。。’”

这似乎变成一个走不出来的怪圈：不敢花钱，使得商家裁员以至倒闭；反过来又导致经济危机更严重。。。

因此，这第三条是否可以成为乐观的理由，目前还难说。

4。再造和改变是美國的本色

金融和房地产业近年來急速膨脹，如今他們又迅速萎縮。美國经济需要為其增長和繁荣尋找新的驱动力。虽然这并不容易，然而“换档”正是美國与众不同之处。如果有必要，我们美国人愿意离乡背景出外谋生，去自我挣扎谋求生存。这在其它发达国家却不容易办到。随着金融风暴漫延至全球，大家会更清楚地看到：尽管美国位于“震中”，却不是受灾最严重的地方。這并不仅只是由于美國的适应力強，更多的是因为美国先天的（而且是先天地不公平的）优势：美圆是作为世界上（唯一的）儲备货币。曾有一度看来這场危机将折断美圆的支柱，并使美國丧失作为世界老大的地位，但是現在看來，結果未必会是这样。

【评论】关于美圆，市长已“指控”过不只一次了，还写过专门的文章论述美圆的地位问题　－　“只要美国一开动印钞机，世界各国就要准备共同为其买单了”。这一点Fox也坦率地承认是“先天的不公平”。然而在“赌命”时，恐怕是很难保证每个赌客都有“君子风度”　－　赢得起，不一定也输得起。认真说起来，正是美圆使得美国“与众不同”，而不是其它的。这应该是Fox认为可以乐观的“撒手锏”吧。

5。我想不到第五個理由了

上列4個理由看起來似乎都有点一廂情願。其实，沒有明确跡象显示我們將走出衰退的，任何乐观的言论在未來兩年內都會显得很傻。

【评论】这个“老狐狸（Fox）”不是在忽悠大伙儿么？有点可恶哈。

附原文

《Five Reasons for Economic Optimism》

By Justin Fox

Sunday, March 08, 2009

Introduction

This happens to be a very good time to be an economics columnist. I get to talk to important people about historic events—as they happen. I'm interviewed on TV and radio a lot (not Joe Klein—right-before-the-election a lot, but a lot for me). My blog readership is up. My editors almost never tell me, as they did with infuriating frequency before last fall, that there's no room for my column in this week's magazine. So when I say I'm not despondent about the current economic situation, it may be just because it hasn't been bad for me. Still, there must be other, less self-centered reasons for my nondespondency. Five, maybe.

1. The Stock Market Is No Longer Overpriced

The Dow's descent below 7,000—for the first time since early 1997—was greeted with much wailing on Wall Street and in the media. That's understandable: the market's fall reflects a growing consensus that the current recession will be nasty, brutish and long—which it surely will be. And if you own stocks, you can't sell them for nearly as much as you could a couple of years ago or even a couple of weeks ago. But the recent fall in stock prices also means they are now, by just about every possible measure, fairly priced or downright cheap. That doesn't mean prices won't go even lower. It does mean there's no longer a huge, unsustainable overhang of overvaluation weighing on the market and the economy. House prices may not have reached this point of cheapness yet, but they're getting there. The great turn-of-the-millennium asset bubble has finally deflated. That means the prospects for positive asset returns in the future have improved. It may also teach Americans, for a few decades at least, that buying and selling houses and financial instruments doesn't bring lasting prosperity. What brings prosperity is work.

2. The Government Is On The Case

Don't laugh. The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve and the White House and Congress really are all working to fix this mess. They're making lots of mistakes. They're doing some things too quickly and many things too slowly. A political climate increasingly hostile to bailouts is, to a certain extent, tying their hands. But the reaction to the current crisis has been infinitely smarter and more forceful than that of the early years of the Great Depression. And for all the comparisons you hear to Japan's Lost Decade, in the 1990s, U.S. authorities will have to dillydally for seven or eight more years to make them accurate.

3. Consumers are Adjusting to the New Economic Reality — and Fast

The simplest explanation of what led to this financial and economic mess is that too many American consumers spent more than they earned. That's ending, in dramatic fashion: consumer spending dropped in the fourth quarter at the fastest rate in 29 years. After skidding along near zero from 2005 through 2007, the savings rate (income minus spending, divided by income) hit 5% in January, the highest since 1995. This rapid retrenchment is the main reason we sank so quickly into a deep recession. But as long as the consumer pullback doesn't spiral into an economic shutdown (that's where the government comes in), it is a healthy medium- and long-term development. The pullback clears the deck for spending increases in the not-too-distant future: people are going to have to buy cars one of these days. And as long as the spending increases remain moderate, the U.S. economy will be on a much more sustainable path.

4. Reinvention and Change are What the U.S. is All About

The financial and real estate sectors got way too fat in the 2000s. They're shrinking rapidly, and our economy needs to find new drivers of growth and prosperity. That's not going to be easy, but it certainly helps that switching gears is something of a national specialty. We Americans are willing to move thousands of miles from home, to change careers, to strike out on our own, if that's what it takes to get by. This is far less true in most other countries in the developed world. And as the economic crunch goes global, it is becoming increasingly clear that the U.S.—despite being the epicenter of the meltdown—will be far from the worst hit. This isn't just because we're an adaptable lot; it has much to do with the inherent (and inherently unfair) advantages of having the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Whereas it once looked as if this crisis would knock the dollar off its pedestal and forever diminish the global stature of the U.S., that's not such an obvious outcome any longer.

5. O.K. I Couldn't Think of a Fifth Reason

Maybe you have one to spare? I also have to admit that as I look back at the first four reasons, they're all exercises in either a) finding silver linings in really bad news or b) wishful thinking that has yet to be backed up with hard evidence. All the actual economic news at the moment is negative, there's no clear path out of the recession in sight, and optimists have been made to look like idiots for two years running. (Happily, I was pessimistic for most of 2007 and 2008--maybe because economics columnists weren't as popular back then.) It is, of course, exactly when the news is most discouraging and sentiment most gloomy that recoveries begin. But there's no way of knowing until after the fact when that moment of greatest pessimism was reached.