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與歐巴馬相反的雷根經濟學,成功挽救經濟衰退
2009/03/14 13:25:51瀏覽6045|回應10|推薦10
雷根是美國史上最受歡迎的總統之一,他最有名的一項政績之一就是帶領美國走出經濟衰退的陰霾。也有人說,雷根的經濟政策奠定美國近三十年來資本主義責任社會的基礎。在雷根1981年接任時,美國失業率是7.1%,1989年雷根卸任時,失業率成功的控制到5.5%。

雷根是怎麼做到的?當年的做法稱為雷根經濟學,其有四大支柱:

1. 減少政府開支的增長
2. 降低收入勞動力和資本的邊際稅率
3. 減少管制
4. 控制貨幣供應量,以降低通貨膨脹率

簡單的說,雷根的做法就是儘可能減少政府控制,將權力加諸在人民手上。還財於民,用減稅的手段為生產和投資提供誘因,讓自由市場自行發揮,另一方面強調自我責任,降低人民對政府的依賴。這是供給面經濟學的一次成功實驗:1981年8月,雷根在加州農場簽署了美國史上最大規模的減稅法案,最高的個人稅率從70%降到28%。美國失業率雖然在1982年因經濟衰退而超過10%(比現在還高),接下來的幾年,美國失業率不斷下降,DGP年成長率達到3.4%。通貨膨脹率從1980年的13.6%,到1988年控制到4.1%。新增加的就業機會有一千六百萬個。在雷根時代,聯邦政府的稅收大致穩定,不因減稅而明顯增加或減少。當然這樣的做法支持和批評的聲音都有,詳情請看Wiki網站

雷根在他的經典就職演說中說:”在我們面對的危機中,政府不能解決我們的問題---政府自己才是問題。一而再的,都會有人試圖想要告訴你自律已經不能管理這個已經變得太複雜的社會,因此需要組成一個民有民治民享的精英政府來管理社會。但是,如果我們沒有一個人能夠管理好自己,那誰又真正有能力能管理別人?我們大家必須共同承擔責任”。這樣的話在今天聽起來特別有感覺,這也正是今天的美國所需要的。

歐巴馬雖然讚賞雷根政府,但是卻採取與他相反的做法。他認為只有政府才能解決我們的問題,不斷的告訴我們自由市場帶給我們危機,歐巴馬是救世主要來拯救我們。恢復經濟的責任在政府身上,不在人民身上。差不多可以說是反雷根經濟學:增加政府控制,權力握在政府手上,取財於民,增加自由市場的限制,另一方面增加人民對政府的依賴。花了八千億只有增加或維持兩百萬個就業機會(雷根政策不花什麼錢就增加一千六百萬就業機會)。

如果雷根還在世,你猜他會對歐巴馬說什麼?(請耐心看到最後一秒)

( 時事評論政治 )

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You're not a Taiwanese
2009/08/08 17:01

We do have free Internet access here in Taiwan, so you don't need to worry about the sources we could retrieve information. If you're a real Taiwanese, you will know that for sure.

Maybe in PRC, you could say: "What I am doing here is trying to remind true America values to my people in PRC. This is particularly important because none of the information is accessible there.". It's easy for someone to describe a strange world with their common sense, though it might not be definitely true. 

Even you are a real Taiwnese, I don't see any qualification you have , which could allow you to say: "They believe that financial crisis is caused by filthy CEOs with private jets (now even some idiots blame it to Ronald Reagan, unbelievable), not by those criminals in ACORN and congresswomen with several private jets."

Clearly, your major is not anything related to economics, anyone buys your viewpoints is at his/her risk--however, it's not propriate for you say anything in a way "They believe...."-- You just are not a good representative of Taiwanese, not to mention you are probably not a real one.

阿卡迪亞斯基(martinique) 於 2009-08-09 13:35 回覆:
你瘋啦?這篇本來要刪的,不過留著當標本。

邱彼得
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經濟進步的原因
2009/04/21 16:33

我不清楚 歐巴馬的這套對策方案是否有效 但是老實說 我希望他有效

通常極盛期 官員人民貪污到不行 只問收穫 不問耕耘於是經濟就衰退了

通常衰弱期 官員人民大家努力到不行 人人只問耕耘 不問收穫 於是經濟就進步了

阿卡迪亞斯基(martinique) 於 2009-04-30 13:45 回覆:
在人類歷史上,政府花大錢救經濟哪一次成功過?

Piggle
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Hello Martin
2009/03/19 05:45
I don't have a blog yet and the work I do is for private marketing companies. I'm currently working on a white paper about the mortgage crisis.
Press bias is the number one reason the American people believe what they believe. The Bush administration did not defend itself as strongly as it should have. They are starting to do that now as they contrast their administration with Obama's.
The major newspapers and TV networks are in serious trouble financialy and some of them are already close to bankruptcy. Perhaps they are beginning to change their ways. Yesterday's "Washington Post" headlined news Obama was losing his "political capital" because of the bonuses paid to AIG executives and his overall performance since his inaugaration. It was a headline I never expected from the "Washington Post".
American values are still found in the small and medium cities in the USA. That is the purpose of Piggle's blog. Everything happens for a reason. I believe the Obama administration will force Americans to take a hard look at themselves and their values.
So far, Obama has broken at least 10 campaign promises. The business community is losing confidence in him and if that continues, it will spread to the citizens. He has already lost Republicans who voted for him. The Independents are fading and he will lose conservative Democrats if he stays on his present course.
Some website you might want to visit are World News Daily, Drudge Report, and Politico.com. The latter is slightly left leaning but has fair reporting and a nice selection of conservative op-ed pieces.
Drudge and World News both pull up stories that get buried in the mainstream media.
Newsbusters.org exposes liberal bias in media almost as soon as it is published or broadcast. Some of the liberals who read this blog should read Newsbusters so they can see how they are lied too. Of course, the liberal mindset means twisting the truth to one's own world view and staying in a perpetual state of denial.

Piggle
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USA is going down the wrong path
2009/03/16 22:47

Hi--

I'm Piggle's husband. I totally agree with you. Much of Reagan's plan was to reduce taxes for everyone. Obama wants to tax the people who provide income to other people. This will rob them of the incentive to produce their goods. Obama advocates policies that have already failed in the USA under presidents Carter, Ford and Nixon.

His policies mean a major expansion of government and are strategically geared to maintain and increase his party's power. Experts in this country see his goals as increasing the power of the Democratic Party and not curing the economy. His huge budget could bankrupt the USA or create worldwide inflation like we've never seen.

One of the most interesting news stories was recent news mainland China dropped its tax rate. Car sales in February increased 25 percent! It would appear China listened to Reagan and Bush.

In America, consumers are not buying much because of uncertainty over what this government is going to do. That affects China as well as anyone in Taiwan who has manufacring business in China.

China is also reluctant to buy more US Treasury Notes because they don't believe the USA is facing its economic problem with the proper strategy under the Obama administration.

Piggle read me some of the Chinese language comments. These people are dead wrong. The USA will fail if it constinues on it current course.

I am a freelance writer and media analyst for major USA companies in Automotive, Healthcare, and Banking. I see what is happening everyday as I must read and analyze news clippings representing all political and economic views.

Mike Plumstead

阿卡迪亞斯基(martinique) 於 2009-03-17 11:46 回覆:
Hi Mike,

It is great honor to have yourt comment and summary.  Are your writings in accessible somewhere on internet? Looks like we have a lot in agreement. My question for you is the origin of all this: The reason a lot of people came to USA, including myself, is for its freedom, capitalism, and self responsibility. But I do sense a lot of "CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN" during the past few years: Twisted/biased thinking emerged and became mainstream. For example, rich=filthy and evil, republican= war and rich, democrats= savior, oil company= evil and anti-earth. The strange thing is most people think these are all true.

More questions: What is the reason that all these twisted value became main stream in the USA? Why are most media consistent with democrats? Why am I wrong if I work hard and trying to buy myself a nice vacation home? Why is American dream evil? Why is my government after me if I work hard and successful? Where can I find the fundamental values that attracted me to the US? What can I do to help?

What I am doing here is trying to remind true America values to my people in Taiwan. This is particularly important because none of the information is accessible there. All media just copy-paste USA's "mainstream" media- so people became twisted without knowing what's happening. They believe that financial crisis is caused by filthy CEOs with private jets (now even some idiots blame it to Ronald Reagan, unbelievable), not by those criminals in ACORN and congresswomen with several private jets. I would like my people to have access to truth.

I would like to invite you to come back and see my blog, and correct me as needed. If Piggle gets too busy with her rutabaga, you can use google translate to obtain English version-mostly pretty funky translation but you will get some idea. I am an employee of a company in production industry. I never miss a deadline of tax, mortgage, and credit card bill. I write this little blog with my little spare time, 1-2 hours per day.

Sincerely-     阿卡迪亞

cjs
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.
2009/03/16 12:35

我跟您道歉,

是我老不更事,用詞沒加斟酌.

我想重申,只是針對雷根經濟學.

至於犯怒之言,當不是說給如您之修養之人聽的.

阿卡迪亞斯基(martinique) 於 2009-03-17 11:06 回覆:
您應該針對的是歐巴馬花大錢又沒用的經濟刺激案,不是雷根經濟學。

雷根經濟學很可能是真正的解藥,起碼我十分認同其鼓勵人民生產的原則,而且我認同政府的效率永遠比不上私營企業。若雷根為現任總統,我想他會發表鼓勵人民的電視演說,再告訴我們一次:”政府不是解決問題的方法,反之政府自己才是問題”,”二十年前說過的話,今天還是沒變”。他會施行減稅以刺激民間競爭與投資,同時吸引外流資金回流美國。同時,他會研議廢止CRA和 FHA,使政府停止扮演慈善機構的角色,自由市場正常化。研議自伊拉克和平撤軍,也可能會開放外海油氣生產,因為那是真正就業機會的一大來源。

cjs
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.
2009/03/15 14:28

歐巴馬不是什麼好東西,我也同意.

只是事後諸葛,或說的一口好菜,誰都會!

我倒想聽聽各位人中之龍,

從雷曼兄弟宣佈倒閉的那一天起,
您們有更好的方法嗎?

在五大投資銀行關門,AIG瀕危,商業銀行如風中殘燭,
百分之八十國民的養老金,教育基金,甚至生活費,都汲汲可危.
眼看經濟就要崩盤,人心即將潰散的時候,
您教雷根出來說:[政府不會干涉你們,你們自己看著辦吧!]嗎?

或是各位手心朝下的經濟奇才,行行好,就算做功德.
現在就告訴我們,

政府該怎麼辦,民眾該怎麼做,才能渡過這惱人的危機?

不過可不要信口開河喔!害死我們可會遭天譴的.

阿卡迪亞斯基(martinique) 於 2009-03-16 11:40 回覆:
我從沒說歐巴馬不是好人,我認為他可能是一個大好人,歐巴馬熱愛他的同胞,他的家人,是一個好父親。我只是因為他的政策,而對美國的未來感到擔憂:他不該炒作仇富,不該搞財富重分配,不該把”齊頭式公平”作為社會價值的準繩。

你說”信口開河”,”遭天譴”,真是言重了。這些話應該告訴歐巴馬,不是我,我只是一個小小誠實納稅人,寫一個小小的部落格發洩情緒,而讀者大多在美國沒有投票權,所以我非常的小咖,毫無重要性可言。為什麼我說應該告訴歐巴馬才對呢?請看這篇報導:國會預算辦公室說,八千億經濟刺激案因為長期會傷害經濟,不如不做。現在的確有危機,但是很不幸的歐巴馬的做法並不會降低危機,反而只是使國會裡面這些提案的人權力增加,不然為什麼養老鼠也會刺激經濟?

”事後諸葛”:我從去年十一月美國投票前就已經說了:”我預期歐巴馬將會選上而美國將在歐巴馬的社會主義路線下及解放/左派的全面掌控白宮及國會下向社會主義的福利國邁進”。對不對你可以自己判斷,我想我沒那麼事後諸葛。

”現在該怎麼辦”:我不是經濟奇才,更不是人中之龍,我的知識都是網路上得來。現在雖然沒有明確的答案,但有看到或想到什麼會寫一寫跟大家分享(例如現在你看到雷根的這一篇),也希望網上的各位先進共襄盛舉,幫我們指點迷津。我也有退休投資計畫,我也很擔心。我去年十一月初就”空倉”至今,政府的政策讓我看不到未來,是我目前找不到買點的主因。

我知道批評人比自己做簡單的多,可是因為不是我在做總統,在網路上反正也沒人知道我是誰,我可以放心的大放厥辭,放心的把自己想說的大聲說出來。若有得罪請多擔待。

cjs
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.
2009/03/15 00:33

如果您是美國總統,
當時局已經走到金融體系即將崩潰,
生產事業紛紛告急,
服物務事業大幅萎縮.
眼看著美國經濟,即將不可收拾.
您該怎麼辦?
雖然是以前人謀不彰造成的,
但您能說;你們要撐住啊!等政府先把自己救起來,再來救你們.

歐巴馬不是救世主,
他只是一個醫生,剛好碰到心臟病突發的病人.

您要他開給病人吃降膽固醇的藥?還是馬上打強心劑?

先活著,才能來慢慢調養.您說呢?

阿卡迪亞斯基(martinique) 於 2009-03-15 04:20 回覆:
”心臟病突發”是歐巴馬說的。美國經濟有病是沒錯,可是病到底有多嚴重?政府在這個時候花大錢作揖些亂七八糟的事(養老鼠,修房子,研究豬體味...等)就是救”心臟病突發”的藥嗎?看來這個政府自己才是病因吧?


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Pls clearly lay out your ways to resolve the present US problems.
2009/03/14 15:52

Don't just say Reganism, clearly lay out different ways to solve the US problems.

Let GM, Citi, and AIG bankrupt?

阿卡迪亞斯基(martinique) 於 2009-03-15 04:29 回覆:
Good comment. I think any company that can't compete need to go bankrupt. GM for example, they can't manufacture cars cheap, reliable, and good quality, that's all their own problem, not mine. It doesn't make any sense I am responsible for it. The auto market is always there, if they can't make quality/cheap cars that sells to market, someone else will. US economics will more likely revive that way, that means we need free market does its magic, otherwise you will pay for it, sooner or later.

林志浩
雷根時代開啟了美國人的國債赤字
2009/03/14 14:53

這篇文章一面倒歌訟 雷根 的經濟政策是完全不對的。

最不應該的是,沒有提到在雷根政府任內,美國政府的預算赤字大幅提高,

美國今天欠一屁股天文數字般的國債,就是從那時開始的。

雷根 政府針對冷戰時期的前蘇聯,提出了一個大膽,異想天開,浩費天文數字

般預算的〞星戰計劃〞,最後不了了之。  這真是共和黨政府的一貫作風。
阿卡迪亞斯基(martinique) 於 2009-03-14 15:16 回覆:
先說明,本文的重點是在於對”大有為的政府”這個觀念的質疑。

赤字的問題在我引用的Wiki網站裡有提到,這也是雷根政府最受到批評的地方,我同意。星戰計畫SDI有當年”核戰陰影”的背景,我知道的不多,目前不敢多說,不知道您知不知道SDI到底花了多少錢?以金額來說,八千億經濟刺激案四千億花錢案還是比較厲害。

為什麼不了了之是共和黨一貫作風?


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不對
2009/03/14 14:40

但也就是因為雷根種下的因, 所以才有今日經濟危機的果

並且當年雷根所處的國際環境與現在大不相同, 日本正在巔峰, 中國尚未崛起, 亞洲與拉丁美洲各國隨便美國跨國企業予取予求, 傾全球之力才造就了美國的繁榮. 現在的美國已經不是這樣了, 當然不能相提並論

阿卡迪亞斯基(martinique) 於 2009-03-14 14:59 回覆:
經濟危機不是雷根種下的因,是卡特,克林頓的社區再投資法造成。雷根跟卡特時期(失業率6%-9%)的國際環境可以相提並論,而雷根的政策挽救了美國的經濟。

所以你認為救經濟要靠政府?你認為歐巴馬的花大錢政策有效嗎?