防空識別區（ADIZ）的東海軒然大波

郭都人

參考文章：東海山雨欲來風滿樓

《中時電子報》今天發表《中央社》文章，全文如下：

葛來儀：美陸需助台入國際組織
中央社 2013年11月26日 08:33

華府智庫學者葛來儀發表台灣參與國際社會報告指出，台灣被國際組織拒於門外，影響國際競爭力，阻礙經濟自由化與區域整合，美國和中國大陸都需協助台灣融入國際組織。

華府智庫戰略暨國際研究中心（CSIS）亞洲資深顧問葛來儀（Bonnie Glaser），日前發表「台灣要求廣泛參與國際社會」報告指出，台灣被國際組織拒於門外，影響台灣的國際競爭力，阻礙經濟自由化與參與區域整合的趨勢。

另一方面，北京對全球的政經影響力雖與日俱增，但仍畏懼台灣的國際空間擴大，將推進法理上的獨立。不過台灣還是在北京壓力下，與多國政府發展出准外交（Quasi-diplomacy）與非正式關係，參與跨政府與非政府的國際性機構。

葛來儀建議台灣除了參與國際民航組織（ICAO）與聯合國氣候變化綱要公約（UNFCCC）外，也可推動參與其它相同功能的組織；除了聯合國附屬機構，也可整合資源目標參與區域性組織。

另外，在爭取多國支持的同時，還須調整經濟結構，進一步參與區域全面經濟夥伴關係（RCEP）與跨太平洋夥伴協定（TPP），並與多國簽署自由貿易協定。

至於中國大陸，葛來儀認為，中方應將台灣爭取國際空間納入對台政策，以爭取台灣民心；北京政府對台灣參與國際活動，應找出「可理解的協議空間」。

另外，葛來儀建議，北京應以實際行動通知世界衛生組織（WHO），取消2005年同意台灣參與世界衛生大會（WHA）方式的備忘錄，避免以此作為台灣參與其它組織的模式；最後，中方還須無條件支持與援助台灣參與區域組織。

葛來儀認為，美國應與中方及其他國家諮商，修訂現行主要國際機構會員資格規章，讓台灣在不涉及主權爭議下，某種程度的參與。美方還需協助台灣進行結構性改革，以符合參與TPP的資格。

另外，美方應協助台灣在已加入的機構內，更有意義的參與；與中方諮商時告知對方，刁難台灣國際空間，和中方的目標相違背。1021126

以上文章所引述的觀點似乎言之成理。

可是，就在同一天，葛來儀顯然沉不住氣，竟高調在香港重要英文網站發表一面倒親日論述，全文如下：

China's ADIZ undermines regional stability
By Bonnie S Glaser

China established an "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)" effective as of 10 am on November 23. China's Ministry of National Defense also announced Aircraft Identification Rules for the ADIZ, which include a warning that "defensive emergency measures" would be adopted to respond to aircraft that refuse to follow the instructions.

The zone overlaps the existing ADIZ of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. China's ADIZ covers the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands claimed by China, Japan and Taiwan. One day following the announcement, China conducted two aerial patrols over the area; its aircraft were intercepted by Japan Air Self Defense Force (ASDF) fighter jets.

All nations have the right to establish reasonable conditions of entry into their territory. An ADIZ is a declaration of a perimeter

within which unidentified aircraft can be intercepted and prevented from illegally proceeding to enter national airspace. It serves essentially as a national defense boundary for aerial incursions. There are no international rules or laws that determine the size of an ADIZ. Over 20 nations have an ADIZ, including the United States, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Taiwan in the West Pacific. ADIZs typically are much more extensive then a country's territorial airspace.

Why did China establish an ADIZ? China's PLA spokesman claimed that its action is "a necessary measure taken by China in exercising its self-defense right," and that "it is not directed against any specific country or target." However, the decision to declare an East China Sea ADIZ is likely aimed at strengthening Beijing's claim over the disputed islands in the East China Sea. This move follows on China's September 2012 submission to the United Nations of baselines to demarcate a territorial sea around the disputed islands.

China may also be responding to recent Japanese warnings that it reserves the right to shoot down unmanned drones that pose a threat to Japanese airspace. By creating an ADIZ that includes the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, Beijing may believe it has established a basis for challenging and, if necessary, taking action against Japanese aircraft operating in this zone. The ADIZ may also signal a Chinese intention to increase flights in the territorial airspace around the disputed islands as a demonstration of its sovereignty and jurisdictional claim. China has only flown an aircraft in the territorial airspace around the island once, in February 2013, when a civilian maritime surveillance Y-12 aircraft entered the airspace.

Beijing may also seek to collect and publish data on the number of times that Chinese jets scramble to intercept Japanese fighters that enter into its ADIZ. Japan already publishes data on "intrusions" by Chinese and Russian aircraft; China may see benefits in demonstrating to its domestic audience that the party and military are doing their utmost to defend Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity.

China's action exacerbates tensions in ongoing disputes and creating friction in the region where none or little existed. It further increases tension in the territorial row between China and Japan at a time when that bilateral relationship is already severely strained. Moreover, it heightens the risk of an accident. There is a very large overlap between China's ADIZ and Japan's ADIZ. When aircraft from either country fly in this overlapping area, the other side is likely to scramble fighters and intercept the intruder. If intercepts are not conducted safely and in accordance with international norms, a collision is possible. Recall that in 2001 a Chinese fighter jet that was conducting aggressive intercepts collided with a US surveillance plane, which resulted in the Chinese pilot's death, the forced landing of the US EP-3 on Hainan island where its 24-member crew was held for 11 days, and a crisis in US-China relations.

China's ADIZ also encompasses portions of Ieo Island and Jeju Island, which are part of South Korea, and overlaps with the Korean ADIZ in a wide swath that is 20 kilometers wide and 115 km long. The South Korean government expressed its regret about the Chinese government's decision. The newly announced ADIZ also overlaps with Taiwan's ADIZ, prompting the government in Taipei to issue a statement that included a pledge that Taiwan's armed forces would ensure the safety of the country's airspace, and urged all parties to "avoid actions that could escalate confrontation in the region."

Moreover, China's Aircraft Identification Rules make no distinction between aircraft flying parallel with China's coastline through the ADIZ and those flying toward China's territorial airspace. Secretary of State Kerry highlighted this issue in his statement, saying that the US "does not apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter US national airspace," implying that the US would not recognize China's claimed right to take action against aircraft that are not intending to enter its national airspace. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel stated that the US would not change the way it conducts military operations in the region.

Some Chinese may believe that aggressive intercepts against a Japanese aircraft in disputed air space near the Senkakus would not provoke a US response since Washington is neutral on the issue of sovereignty over the islands. Secretary Hagel's statement reaffirming that Article V of the US-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the disputed islands is important in this regard and should prevent Chinese miscalculation.

At one fell swoop, Beijing's ADIZ decision has injected new problems into its ties with South Korea, Taiwan and the US, further soured relations with Japan, and frightened smaller nations in Southeast Asia. It appears that Xi Jinping, who by all accounts has emerged stronger from the recently held Chinese Communist Party Third Plenum, is willing to fan the flames of nationalism so he can ensure the party's popularity as he tackles economic reform at home.

Bonnie S Glaser is a Senior Adviser for Asia in the Freeman Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC.

不論是非曲直，防空識別區（ADIZ）果然引起軒然大波。許多人應聲露了餡。

葛來儀要求北京如何如何，「美陸需助台入國際組織」，顯然已經喪失說服力。說白了，日本利益既然遠超台灣利益，她反正露餡，為何不乾脆宣佈說：美日需助台入國際組織?   

作 者 是 旅 居 北 美 的 業 餘 文 化 工 作 者

圖一，中國領土釣魚台列嶼
圖二，葛來儀