編譯 陳家齊

回到2001年，南韓當時正全速擺脫亞洲金融風暴，浴火重生，堪稱經濟模範生；而日本卻深陷房地產與股市泡沫崩潰後的通貨緊縮與經濟困局。當時所有人都在談論日本該怎樣效法南韓。

如今日、韓的處境卻似乎易地而處。日本經濟正在回春，南韓卻有跌進日本「失落十年」的危險。

南韓經濟今年預期仍將成長5%，現在看壞南韓可能有些奇怪。但對一個過去以8%到10%速度成長的經濟體來說，降速到5%可視為警訊。

南韓經濟夾在高科技的日本與低成本的中國間，在中國崛起、日本復甦的今日，必須加倍努力才不會被取代掉。北韓問題則是雪上加霜，且總統盧武鉉陷在個人政治危機中，難有作為。

南韓經濟在1997到1998年間遭到重擊，韓元崩跌，經濟負成長。但政府努力打消銀行壞帳、縮減政府公債，並推出一系列成功的重振經濟措施。1999年南韓經濟成長率高達9.5%，2000年也有8.5%。2001年美國經濟減緩時，南韓卻成功避免日本與台灣遭遇的衰退，2001年成長雖滑至3.8%，2002年已回升至7%。

然而每年規模7,930億美元的南韓經濟，現在似乎愈來愈難突破；強勢韓元、高油價與投機資金湧入的房市更是致命組合。

1999到2001年擔任南韓財經副部長的金容德6月說：「在我們控制問題前，沒人能排除南韓可能步上日本經驗的後塵。」

財經部長權五奎13日表示，房市還不到「泡沫」的地步。但央行總裁李成太卻說，目前的房市走向「令人憂慮」。

南韓公寓住宅價格光在10月就上漲1.5%，創2003年10月以來最大漲幅。

房市如果突然下跌可能拖垮南韓經濟。正當美國房市冷卻、中共極力降溫經濟時，這種狀況並非不可能。

即使認為南韓不致重蹈日本覆轍的經濟學家，也承認當前的挑戰非常嚴峻。香港獨立分析師謝國忠說：「韓國經濟過去五年在結構上已避開日本症候群，但現在仍在危險邊緣。中國正在升級，韓國卻不可能有中國的成本優勢。」

超過4%的經濟成長率提供南韓擺脫困局的機會，但這有賴南韓政府繼續發揮關鍵角色。不過盧武鉉政府從2003年上台以來就陷入威信低落、效能不彰的窘境，南韓能否抓住時機，迎接挑戰，是個很大的疑問。（彭博資訊）

【2006-11-15/經濟日報/A8版/國際新聞】

South Korea Faces Risk of Japan-Like Lost Decade: William Pesek
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=akt1JVgca.sU

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- When it comes to Asian economies, so much can change in a year, never mind five. Look no further than comparisons between Japan and South Korea back in 2001.

Then, the talk was all about what Japan, Asia's biggest economy, could learn from Korea, the region's third-largest. Korea had risen quickly from the ashes of the Asian financial crisis, while Japan was stuck in deflation.

Today, it's hard not to wonder if the two have reversed positions: Japan is on the mend, while Korea is walking in place.

It may seem an odd suggestion, given that Korea is expected to grow 5 percent this year and Japan is seen advancing at half that rate. Korea's Kospi index is up 9.4 percent in dollar terms this year, while Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average has barely gained. The won is up 8 percent, while the yen is unchanged.

For an economy used to growing 8 percent or 10 percent, a slowdown to 4 percent can seem like a recession. And for all its attractive features -- an educated, hard-working labor force, a stable of globally competitive companies, a history of adapting to change -- Korea is awkwardly wedged between high-tech Japan and low-cost China. It means Korea needs to work extra hard to remain relevant in Asia.

The upshot is that Korea's $793 billion economy is being squeezed and challenged as never before. North Korea's unpredictable regime and nuclear ambitions certainly don't help.

Impressive Revival

There's plenty of interest in Korea, and rightfully so, given its track record of overcoming adversity. Traveling around Asia -- or in the U.S. and Europe -- Korea is often among the first markets to come up in conversation with investors, business people and economic policy makers.

Korea bounced back impressively from the 1997-1998 Asian crisis, prompting many economists to conclude that Japan could learn from officials in Seoul. Korea had cleaned up the bad loans in its banking sector, reduced public debt and engineered an influx of capital that helped reinvigorate the economy -- all things that Japan still needed to do in 2001.

By the end of 1999, the won had rebounded 37 percent from its Asian-crisis low. Gross domestic product, which shrank 6.9 percent in 1998, expanded 9.5 percent in 1999 and 8.5 percent in 2000.

Even though growth slowed to 3.8 percent in 2001, Korea avoided the recessions that hit neighbors such as Japan and Taiwan when the U.S. economy faltered. Growth accelerated anew to 7 percent in 2002 and the Kospi gained 145 percent from 1999 through 2005.

Japan-Like Woes?

Things look very different now. China is booming, Japan is growing again and Korea is about to slow just as it craves a bigger role in Asia's rise. Worse, the combination of a strong won, high oil prices and excessive property speculation may put Korea at risk for the kind of funk Japan suffered in the 1990s.

The danger has been mentioned sporadically over the last couple of years. ``We can't rule out the Japan experience unless we contain these problems,'' Kim Yong Duk, Korea's deputy finance minister from 1999 to 2001, told Bloomberg in June.

Finance Minister Kwon Okyu yesterday said Korea's housing market isn't facing an asset-price ``bubble.'' Yet Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong Tae said last week the recent surge in home prices is ``worrisome.'' In October alone, nationwide apartment prices climbed 1.5 percent from the previous month, the largest gain since October 2003.

A sudden collapse in property values could take the economy down with them. It would come at a time when China is trying to slow growth and U.S. demand is expected to cool.

Daunting Challenges

Even economists who doubt that Korea will go down the Japanese path agree its challenges are daunting.

``Structurally, Korea has moved away from slipping into Japan syndrome over the past five years, but it's still on thin ice,'' says Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Hong Kong. ``China is upgrading also. Korea will never have a cost advantage over China. It has to stay ahead of China's electronics and autos constantly.''

Perhaps the biggest risk is policy paralysis. In office since February 2003, President Roh Moo Hyun gets poor marks on the economy. Low approval ratings and infighting before a December 2007 election mean Roh's government won't be as attuned to boosting business and consumer confidence as it needs to be.

Even if Korea's growth slows to 4 percent in the months ahead, that's a healthy rate compared with the seven largest industrialized economies. Four percent-plus growth provides a window of opportunity to push through upgrades that could raise living standards and attract foreign investors.

Big `If'

Japan hasn't suddenly become a role model for Korea. Japan is still more about job protection than job creation, and its population is shrinking. Huge public debt and ultra-low interest rates also leave it with few tools if global growth slows.

South Korea's challenge may be even bigger. While Korea boasts household-name corporate powers such as Samsung Electronics Co. and Hyundai Motor Co., it must work harder to thrive in increasingly competitive Asia.

Korea now has a chance to remind the world not to sell its economy short. And it can avoid repeating Japan's experience in the 1990s if the government takes advantage of the economic growth it now enjoys. The trouble is, that's a big ``if.''