Social housing in China

No way home

Giving the urban poor a place to call home

Oct 15th 2011 | BEIJING | from the print edition

IF THERE is one thing that annoys the man on the Beijing omnibus, it is the cost of housing in China’s cities. By unofficial estimates, the average price of a flat in the capital has risen between five and ten-fold in the past decade. So Li Keqiang, who is likely to become China’s next prime minister, is trying to show his mettle by sorting out the problem. Under his direction, local governments have embarked on a campaign to build unprecedented quantities of social housing for the urban poor. Officials have been claiming a spectacular success, but persuading citizens to share their joy is proving another matter.

Pressure from Mr Li looks, on the surface, to be paying off. Official statistics suggest that in recent weeks, local governments (not normally known for their enthusiasm for spending money on the poor) have been racing to meet their quotas for the year. On October 10th the central government declared that a target of starting work on 10m social-housing units this year was 98% complete. In September alone, work began on 1.2m units—more than twice the number of private homes America began building last year.

The central government is not just trying to woo the poor. It also sees the project as a way of pepping up the economy at a time of global gloom. This year’s target represents a 70% increase in the construction of social housing compared with 2010 (see chart). In March the government announced a goal of completing 36m units by 2015. If three people on average live in one flat, this would be the equivalent of building new housing for the combined populations of Britain and Poland.

Some state-controlled newspapers have, however, been airing scepticism. The surge in construction has been compared by a few commentators to Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward of the late 1950s, when local governments vied with one other in their increasingly implausible claims of soaring output. “This kind of farce is showing signs of making a comeback”, said acolumnist in Panyu Daily, a newspaper in the southern province of Guangdong. In September alone, others noted, Guangdong’s reported fulfilment of its quota for the year increased from 66% (the country’s lowest rate) to 96%, thanks to work started on another 291,000 units. An article published by Sina.com, a news portal, said many analysts were wondering whether Guangdong had massaged its figures.

Next year’s target is for work to begin on another 10m units (roughly the number of commercial housing units sold nationwide last year). But Zheng Siqi of Beijing’s Tsinghua University worries whether the building boom is sustainable. The central government, she reckons, is only paying about 10-20% of the construction costs, which officials say will total around 1.3 trillion yuan ($204 billion) for 10m units. It needs to provide more, Ms Zheng says.

Last month the central government told local authorities that they would not be allowed to build new offices for themselves if they failed to meet their quotas. That might help: local governments are fond of erecting lavish headquarters. Political pressure on them is likely to mount while Mr Li, a deputy prime minister, prepares to take over from his boss, Wen Jiabao. But sustaining this pace for long will not be easy. Local governments are well versed in frustrating central directives.

Critics also point out that the social-housing programme will mostly benefit urban residents, whose household-registration certificates, or hukou, identify them as city residents. Migrants from the countryside usually find it difficult to get hold of such certificates, even if they have lived in a city for many years. Most local governments prefer not to hand them out, because to do so would commit them to providing the holder with the full range of welfare benefits.

The central government hopes the new housing will reduce public discontent over property prices, but even among urban hukouholders, many are cynical about the government’s efforts. Officials find it difficult to assess who is qualified for the housing, given that many households disguise their true incomes. Some of the better-quality housing ends up in the hands of people who are clearly not entitled to it. A visit to one social-housing complex in eastern Beijing, Zhuxin Homes, finds several luxury cars parked around its apartment blocks. An estate agent nearby offers one of its apartments for rent: a sign that the owners have more than one property and are illegally turning their social housing into a money-spinner.

Mr Li has stressed the importance of ensuring that social housing is distributed fairly and has called for supervision of the process “by the media and people”. But his own officials seem reluctant offer much convincing detail on local government compliance. As a report by Macquarie Capital Securities laments, “reliable facts are still hard to find”.

from the print edition | Asia

No way home

Oct 15th 2011, 07:30

This is a simple article in contention about the recent biggest China Issue of expanding inner economy. As the second member to Xi Jin-Ping in the Communist Party, Li Ke-Qiang along with incumbent prime minister Wen Jia-Bao regarded as “Grandpa Wen” would like to make progress in not only his power but also the Chinese fair life by his professional knowledge of Beijing University’s economics doctor degree. This policy started with few public criticism in 2008, but after less than one month there were many problem emerging. This next prime minister faces a lot of difficulties from people who don’t like the renewable building plan of metropolitan including Xi Jin-Ping, the highest leader in princiling party as well as in the Communist Party.

As the saying goes in China this summer “The 10 or 20 lines’ matter with President Wen or Boss Li I REALLY don’t know is INDEED inferior to the order of MY “private” boss, where I absolutely listen to”, we can easily find that it is sorry for the majority of citizen not to follow the way of the best housing project in China even in Asia nowadays. Until now, the most aggressive protest is from Zhu Rong-Ji, the predecessor of Wen Jia-Bao. Once Zhu talks of Wen and Li’s thoughts of Beijing’s reality, he always has no answer uttering but to give Li the evil eye as we can see in his spring’s lecture for Beijing Tsing-Hua University. I cannot understand Zhu’s thoughts anymore because the similar social housing plan in Asian country like Japan, South Korea and Singapore (and Taiwan) can help soothe the phenomenon of many acrimoniously unreasonable allocation especially in satellite cities around the metropolitan. Besides, Zhu is a well-known scholar in management and statics but never think the advanced plan should exercise.

Li Ke-Qiang may carefully take some measure to hold on the whole surroundings in case the embarrassment is getting worsen. According to the latest issue of Min-Jin Monthly Magazine in Taiwan, rumor has it that these two leaders, Xi Jin-Ping and Li Ke-Qiang representing princiling party and Chinese Communist Youth League, are “flame and ice” intending to keep the co-existence of both the hottest and freezing polar in the “Qiu Chong Tian” world of China now. By the logistics of Yin-Yang(meaning Moon-Sun), there is a proper metaphor that Xi and Li are “phoenix Xi” and “the embodiment of ninety-five Li”. For the time being, both of faction in the Communist Party compete drastically in order to break the ice or cool something down.

For example, last month they argued with each other over whether the officer concerned of social housing plan should report the number of indicators in English or in Mandarin. I really believe my boss Li Ke-Qiang can succeed every time while exercising moderate policy, including this time. I always exclaim the unavoidable paradox between the theorized blueprint like this twelfth five-year-plan and the public opinion like referendum or the lower officers’ purposeful deterrence. Hope that Li could deal with the question of urbanization for my position in Beijing and avoid the situation as unfortunate as Bo Xi-Lai, the incumbent Chongqing party secretary, under Hu Jing-Tao’s constant attack at least for half a year.

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No way home

Oct 15th 2011, 08:44

This is a simple article in contention about the recent biggest China Issue of expanding inner economy. As the second member to Xi Jin-Ping in the Communist Party, Li Ke-Qiang along with incumbent prime minister Wen Jia-Bao regarded as “Grandpa Wen” would like to make progress in not only his power but also the Chinese fair life by his professional knowledge of Beijing University’s economics doctor degree. This policy started with few public criticism in 2008, but after less than one month there were many problem emerging. This next prime minister faces a lot of difficulties from people who don’t like the renewable building plan of metropolitan including Xi Jin-Ping, the highest leader in princiling party as well as in the Communist Party.

As the saying goes this summer “The 10 or 20 lines’ matter with President Wen or Boss Li I REALLY don’t know is INDEED inferior to the order of MY “private” boss, where I absolutely listen to”, we can easily find that it is sorry for the majority of citizen not to follow the way of the best housing project in China even in Asia nowadays. Until now, the most aggressive protest is from Zhu Rong-Ji, the predecessor of Wen Jia-Bao. Once Zhu talks of Wen and Li’s thoughts of Beijing’s reality, he always has no answer uttering but to give Li the evil eye as we can see in his spring’s lecture for Beijing Tsing-Hua University. I cannot understand Zhu’s thoughts anymore because the similar social housing plan in Asian country like Japan, South Korea and Singapore (and Taiwan) can help soothe the phenomenon of many acrimoniously unreasonable allocation especially in satellite cities around the metropolitan. Besides, Zhu is a well-known scholar in management and statics but never think the advanced plan should exercise.

Li Ke-Qiang may carefully take some measure to hold on the whole surroundings in case the embarrassment is getting worsen. According to the latest issue of Min-Jin Monthly Magazine in Taiwan, rumor has it that these two leaders, Xi Jin-Ping and Li Ke-Qiang representing princiling party and Chinese Communist Youth League, are “flame and ice” intending to keep the co-existence of both the hottest and freezing polar in the “Qiu Chong Tian” world of China now. By the logistics of Yin-Yang(meaning Moon-Sun), there is a proper metaphor that Xi and Li are “phoenix Xi” and “the embodiment of ninety-five Li”. For the time being, both of faction in the Communist Party compete drastically in order to break the ice or cool something down.

For example, last month they argued with each other over whether the officer concerned of social housing plan should report the number of indicators in English or in Mandarin. I really believe my boss Li Ke-Qiang can succeed every time while exercising moderate policy, including this time. I always exclaim the unavoidable paradox between the theorized blueprint like this twelfth five-year-plan and the public opinion like referendum or the lower officers’ purposeful deterrence. Hope that Li could deal with the question of urbanization for my position in Beijing and avoid the situation as unfortunate as Bo Xi-Lai, the incumbent Chongqing party secretary, under Hu Jing-Tao’s constant attack at least for half a year.

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這篇是在Economics and Finances欄中，提到了中國政府如今也採用二次戰後的亞洲各國經濟復甦及奇蹟之最關鍵一招，即國民住宅的建設，同時筆者也以最近開始閱讀的明鏡新聞集團所出刊的明鏡月刊的內容，順便提到有人對於薄熙來的重慶經驗的津津樂道之駁斥。薄的照片在開會時被偷拍出來，使明鏡月刊超量大賣：薄說「你們一個這麼冷冰冰(指李克強，被薄稱李冰冰，團派數大頭兵的兵)，一個這麼熱烘烘的(指習近平，只知成天馬列火紅太陽，習大大稱號滿天響了)，將來怎麼相處地會很好呢？」事實上這九重天之爭，當年習李就被筆者說也算是個九五之尊的滿盈之士和火鳳凰的陝北大龍。筆者就回薄過想魚躍龍門，沒有和他多搭理。想想真是好險。習近平之運就是當年元世祖忽必烈、李克強最近一次是清朝時的道光皇帝，那薄就是想爭奪皇位的阿里木哥，果然被筆者全猜中了，不就周永康就是窩闊台汗之孫的海都嗎？小賣關子不講江澤民是看起來的蛤蟆那一座，胡錦濤是文殊菩薩清順治皇帝（所以江就是.....普賢尊者啦），溫家寶就是民間傳說的關聖帝君（筆者在原篇回文完成前曾透露給楊中美博士過），不過這輩子稍些偏「風流天子宋徽宗山水、瘦金體詩意治國」，有合政治進步偏王安石新黨革新，但是太過放任下屬的問題仍在，這輩子險些釀禍。習近平就是要把任期弄成無限延伸，對台灣來說就是如來佛祖神掌來啦～

筆者有時會和中國北京現任的總理李克強有往來，這篇相關的政策早在溫家寶總理初期，就已經擬有一份，筆者有特別問過中國房市和經濟的相關程度，對照亞洲各國近五十年的脈落。比如韓國、台灣、香港、新加坡和日本都有因為社會(國民)住宅而使房地產從公部門開始釋出而起飛之勢，其實若翻開Rhoods Murphey的亞洲史(簡體中文版由世界圖書（北京）出版公司編譯)，公認是大學課堂第一指定用書，其描述現代亞洲史，概括的民生經濟上，就是房地產與社會住宅的驅動力。當年覺得理性主義作為馬列思想的工具，在房地產方面只要注意不要燥進，二線城市鬼屋還不是問題，不過建案和官商舞弊於前幾年就形成共生集團，山頭林立頗為頭疼，習曾經和筆者提及頗多著力於此，此後2013-14有次房地產爆跌政府放空，也還好衰了一年不到就作出政策調節，沒影響中國國內股匯市，2015-16曾經喊出二線城市跟綠能衛星城市的再造，不過就偏習近平那邊的研擬實施了，最近這批政策和筆者比較沒什麼直接關係。