Will China average 7% or greater annual GDP growth over the next decade?

Apr 20th 2011, 15:43

I have high confidence that the annual GDP over the next decade

is higher than 7% and this is an unarguable truth that you can

jump into conclusion. Although the main fourth Chinese Commuist

leaders, Hu Jing-Tao and Wen Jia-Bao lack of profound strategy,

the next party's secretary general Xi Jin-Ping and prime minister

Lee Kai-Chiang are well-educated policymakers, owning better

blueprint of economical policy than Hu-Wen (of course better

than stupid Ma Ying-Jeou). Nowadays China faces some problems

worsen than Ba San-Ron Meeting's (the late 1980) situation, such as

inexperienced officer or the more and more serious "eastern coast-

inner western territory" contrasts. Beijing is dealing with the

above as possible as they can. As the Economist's readers saw some

articles in several years, Beijing has set a very good example of

national capitalism for the whole world. This national capitalism,

or so-called "bamboo capitalism" exercises very well and be regarded

as the most brilliant achivement since 1920, the first year of CCP.

This system will be constantly exercising when the clever officers

gains the top power and take these blueprints in practice. Of course

Mr. Xi and Mr. Lee will carry out prominently. I know the recent

year Beijing need solves various problems around one word "balance"

but foreign investors and the Chinese rich still follow Beijing's

policy searching for business chances all over the big China. China

cannot turn the past 10% 10-year period, but the trade amount,

GDP and many economical index are better than most of the countries,

including India. So Wen's "7% plan" is not a lie, and CCP can lead

Chinese to the new step "new China 2.0".

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這篇原來題目是經濟學人雜誌的附設部門Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)，原題目之數名學者論文曾引起連數月討論。當年經濟學人有開民意欄，這篇是2011年Yes No的題目中最紅的一個民調問題，往往在這欄的問題會列出供大家開放式討論約一到兩週，也有一個月的。筆者當年根據NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES編號16919的論文歸納，有三名美國學者和一名南韓學者發表的，筆者由此推估中國經濟的百分比及人均所得美金交叉點為16740及7%並列在這篇回文上，因為中國輻員廣擴，所以趕在16740美金這數字前，沒有跌到6%即可，均應稱作軟著陸。這裡筆者猜測的6%或7%是指平均數字，推估當2030年之前，這20年2010-2029之年平均有5-5.5%成長，且季與季間沒有劇烈數字變動如台北2009-2010年的上下嘔吐狀態即可。經濟學人曾幾何時引領風騷，果然繼對中共第四代領導以凱因斯博士稱呼，在溫家寶前總理喊出保八之際，再為中國經濟把脈及準確評估。2017年第四季有回復6.9%接近7%，中國13億多的2016年人均已有8130美金，北京17800美元、上海17554美元，兩地均達2007年台灣的水平，2016年的台灣人均是22561美元。這本雜誌的預測及提醒不無道理。從巴山輪會議的努力，中共政權的苦心沒有白費。之後數年筆者大部份回文時是有參考這篇作主軸繼續深入寫的。new China 2.0還記得是美國國家電視台NBC當年對中國政經給的期許。「就是新的」，還後來變成某新聞台的玩法。現在的中共政權有個憲政上危機，眾家評論及財經看盤偏認為長線作空，沒有對政策的課責於是使這個經濟體的數據推理題也可能隨之煙消雲散了。