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| 2010/07/26 15:07:32瀏覽478｜回應0｜推薦2 | |
讀者應該記得零和的社會(zero-sum society)吧？ 作者便是MIT(麻省理工學院)的名教授 Lester Thurow, 該書出版於1980年, 其後他又寫了 Zero-Sum Solution (1985), Head to Head(1992), The Future of Capitalism(1996), Building Wealth(1999), 以及Fortune Favors the Bold(中譯“勇者致富”, 天下出版)。勇者致富談的是全球化中, 如何邁向繁榮, “What we must do to build a new and lasting prosperity.” 關於全球化(Globalization), Thurow 教授比喻 “much like the biblical Tower of Babel.” 就像舊約聖經裡的 Babel 塔, 即使開建, 仍紛爭不斷, 贊成反對, 意見不ㄧ, “ This economic Tower of Babel is being built without a set of construction plans. The necessary architectural drawings aren’t even in the process of being drafted.” 全盤的工程計畫缺乏, 設計圖更付之闕如。而且各人因背景立場不同, 闡釋全球化觀點當然也不同, “ Globalization means different things to different people. Arguments for and against it are often self-contradictory.” 是因為 Lost forest for the trees? (見樹不見林), “ All reflect some aspect of the truth. No one can have all these perspectives simultaneously because no one can see the entire tower or the entire truth.” 倒是像不識廬山真面目, 只緣身在此山中。 有一句話一定要常記心中, 那就是“天下沒有白吃的午餐”(There is no such thing as a free lunch.), 說得更白一點, 就是 Every course of action has a cost. 任何事情都一定有要付出的代價。第ㄧ次世界大戰後的七十年, 實行共產主義的蘇聯, 沒有經濟蕭條, 更無金融危機, 反觀同時段的美國, 卻經歷四次金融危機, 十一次經濟蕭條, 以及一次大衰退。“We could choose economic systems that do not have recessions and financial crashes. In the seventy years after World I there were no recessions and no financial collapses under communism in the USSR. In the same period the United States has had four financial crashes, eleven recessions and one Great Depression. The reasons for the difference are straightforward. In communism there are no financial markets to collapse. In central planning excess demand always exists, since the planners always want more than the producers can supply. Recessions are simply impossible. Yet we willingly choose the dangers of capitalism because we want the high standards of living that communism cannot deliver.” 道理很簡單, 因為在共產主義的國家, 根本沒有金融市場, 當然不會有金融危機, 而在中央計畫經濟下, 中央規劃委員永遠要求大過生產者所能供應, 所以超額需求(excess demand)一定存在, 這種情形下是不可能產生經濟蕭條的。然而我們寧願選擇風險較高的資本主義, 因為我們要高的生活水準, 這是共產主義無法提供的。 Thurow 教授在該書的第二章, “ A Global Superstructure Resting on a Capitalistic Substructure Built with New Technologies” 中, 有幾句話特別值得注意看, “But this is all history. China by choice in the late 1970s and the Soviet Union by default in the early 1990s decided to abandon communism and move toward capitalism. Their failures and decisions discredited socialism everywhere.” (p.39) 沒錯, 中譯本第一章64頁(天下中譯本把原著第一章改成前言, 原著第九章前挪至第四章)譯文為： “ 一九七O年代, 中國選擇放棄共產主義, 一九九O年代蘇聯跟隨其後, 朝資本主義邁進。” 何以如此呢？“The worldwide shift to capitalism is happening because capitalism is built on assumptions about human nature and technology that seem to correspond with the realities of human attitudes and modern technology. All the alternatives to capitalism assume that the prime human motive is, or should be, to help others. Capitalism, in contrast, assumes that the prime human motivation is greed, helping oneself. Individuals want to have more, and if possible, they want to get rich.” 這是正視人性的事實, 利他主義(altruism)固然值得推崇, 畢竟人性還是自私的本質吧, 有時不但自利主義(egoism)明顯, 往往還帶有自誇主義(egotism)色彩。所以說, 社會主義那種利他的假設, 固然教資本主義利己的假設高尚, 可惜卻不符合真實的人性(human reality)。 “ Ethically speaking, the motivational assumptions of socialism are better than those embodied in capitalism. Helping others is nobler than helping oneself. Unfortunately, the primacy of helping others just doesn’t seem to correspond with human reality.” 這本內容非常紮實, 思考深入肯綮的好書, 讓人讀之不忍釋手, 更覺得是, 書中提到兩項錯誤, 第一項作者挺危言聳聽, 問讀者堪稱二十世紀商業史最大宗的決策錯誤是什麼？（ What is the biggest business mistake made in the last half century? ) 這答案真的是出乎我的想像, beyond my imagination, Thurow 教授語出驚人的說, “ Steve Job’s decision not to sell the Apple Operating system.” , wow, 居然指的是蘋果電腦的 OS 系統之機會成本(opportunity cost), 因為根據他估計截至2000年三月為止, 總值達5590億美金的天文數字, 以一位經濟學家的觀點, 這的確是有點打誑語, 他說 “He(Steve) had, and perhaps still has, a better operating system than Microsoft. He could have been Bill Gates with a company worth 582 billion rather than having a company with the 23 billion valuation of Apple Computer.” 這會是像金童Steve Job這種企業家(entrepreneur)的想法嗎？今日筆者為文時, 蘋果電腦已飆破每股260美元, 而Microsoft才28美元, Thurow 教授是否也要像他在本書(Fortune Favors the Bold 原文 p.76)一樣, 再寫一本書勇敢承認他當年另一本書(Head to Head, 中譯“世紀之爭“)中對日本經濟的嚴重誤判? 而錢一陣子業已證明蘋果電腦的總值已超過微軟。他對自己的大誤判寫道, “I am sometimes asked what my biggest mistake has been as a professional economist. What I did get most wrong? There is an easy answer. In the early 1990s I wrote a book, Head to Head, about the coming economic battles among Japan, Europe, and the United States for global economic supremacy. The Japan stock market has already crashed and land values were plunging. I mentioned these events but moved on without much comment because I assumed that Japan, like the United States in the savings and loan crisis that had just occurred , would smoothly pick up the pieces and move on. I could not have been more wrong.” 其實, 經濟現象, 股市, 氣象, 甚至人口, 都不易預測, 偏偏一些學者特別偏好此道。 最後一章, 第十章, The Structure and Attitudes of Success, 談到 “The economic institutes, policies, and practices for reshaping a better globalization can be built. The more difficult problem is embedding the right attitudes in the right structures. All social and economic systems require a set of congruent attitudes if they are to be successful.” 個人覺得, 中譯本用“成功的架構與態度”當章名, 語意可能不夠清楚, 看句子便知道, 問題係指在正確的結構中 (in the right structures) 建立正確的態度不容易, 而不是 “正確的態度與社會架構”, 通常economic system 是用經濟制度。 第九章 Help Wanted: A Chief Knowledge Officer(CKO), 引用豐富的商業興衰實例, 十分引人入勝, “People often joke that the world’s oldest industry is prostitution, but it is, in fact, professional music. As far as human history can be traced, people have been paid to play music at wedding, funerals, and other religious events. But the world’s professional music industry is now headed toward economic extinction. 這當然是指pirating(盜版), 專利權的受侵犯(violation of copyrights)而言, 但是作者有處談到 iTune store download 的句子, 顯然記錯了價格, “Steve Job and Apple are trying to save the industry by offering very cheap legal download($0.99 per CD), but why should people pay anything for something they can get free? 在蘋果 iTune store 網路上可以只買ㄧ首歌, 但是ㄧ首歌是0.99美元, 所以是 ＄0.99 per song, 絕非 per CD, 目前台灣還無法用信用卡在 iTune store 上購買, 原因讀者請自己去想。專利權(Patent)也可區分成：(1)cluster,(2)picket(3)submarine, cluster patent 指“群組專利”, 係由核心專利衍生至周邊專利, 過去拍利得(Polaroid)便擁有; submarine patent, “潛水艇專利”, 就如2000年, Amazon 突然宣佈其“一點通” (one click)結賬功能為專利功能(其後沒通過), 但已成為“潛水艇專利”的典型案例, 有時它會突然浮現, 你卻無法事前知道; picket patent 指 “ 屏障專利”, 日本企業常使用, 在對手核心專利周圍申請許多相關細節之專利, 作為交易之籌碼。
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