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見仁見智 ?
2010/10/24 20:09:43瀏覽1401|回應6|推薦25
經濟 ?

見仁見智 ? !!!


http://blog.udn.com/martinique/4528384  "要拯救美國經濟,必須限制政府開支,阻止政客使美國破產。"

http://blog.udn.com/martinique/4528384?raid=3699042#rep3699042  所言與事實不符 ? Uncle Sam 印空頭鈔票,行之有年。.........  而 housing 的問題是 deflation ! 而非 inflation !!!

http://blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/4122266

Noble Prize Winner Paul Krugman 就認為 空頭鈔票印得不夠 ? http://blog.udn.com/spark37/4219445

又認為英國政府緊縮支出,是極其危險之舉 ! http://data.udn.com/data/contents.jsp



ps. 想在股市賺錢 ? http://blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/3627104


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美國面臨30年來最嚴重通縮
2010/12/07 20:44
【中央社╱洛杉磯6日專電】      2010.12.07 12:46 pm

http://udn.com/NEWS/WORLD/WOR6/6019172.shtml

舊金山聯邦準備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)今天公布的研究顯示,美國正面臨近30年來最嚴重的通貨緊縮問題。

研究報告指出,美國的物價上揚指數已經低到十分接近通貨緊縮的水準。

報告指出,商品與服務價格下滑是造成通貨緊縮的主因,超過1/6的商品與服務價格下跌,3/4則呈現價格上漲放緩趨勢。截至10月份,主要消費商品中,有過半數價格下降1.2%。

這份報告警告,美國目前的通貨緊縮狀況可能是1981年以來最嚴重的1年。不過目前的情況與1981年不同,當時物價下滑主要是來自美國聯邦準備理事會(FED)採取激烈緊縮貨幣政策,以打壓通貨膨脹所致。

而這一次問題則嚴重許多。報告指出,這次的通貨緊縮與經濟發展息息相關,在美國採取大規模刺激經濟方案以振興經濟,同時維持近2年的零利率政策後,卻出現通貨緊縮現象。

報告指出,多數學者同意FED的看法,認為通貨緊縮不利於美國經濟發展,抑制消費者需求,增加債務償還的困難度,危害已經十分脆弱的經濟。




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What we're witnessing in Europe
2010/11/26 17:44
is a failure of austerity as a means of combating deficits and bond market anxiety.

What could go wrong? Everything. When a country slashes spending and raises taxes at a time of already-weak growth, it tends to reduce domestic demand. Austerity programs are prodding Greek, Irish and Spanish citizens to spend and invest less. That leads to fewer tax collections and more problem loans. Worse, the austerity-enacting European countries lack the ability to reduce the value of their common currency. The upshot: foreign demand for Greek, Irish and Spanish goods and services won't rise sharply because the Euro hasn't weakened significantly. (Greece didn't get any cheaper for U.S. tourists last summer because the Euro remained buoyant against the dollar). Austerity without a flexible currency and a stimulative monetary policy is a recipe for contraction.

This is not a trick question: Ireland and Greece's policy of huge wage cuts, public layoffs and tax increases will make it: (a) more likely that Irish and Greek mortgage holders will stay current; or (b) less likely that Irish and Greek mortgage holders will stay current? The answer, of course, is (b). And when defaults rise, lenders start to freak out, interest rates rise and the powers that be call for anotherround of austerity. Wash, rinse, repeat. Which is why Ireland on Wednesday unveiled another austerity plan and an expensive bailout -- just months after stress tests gave many large Irish banks a clean bill of health.


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What we're witnessing in Europe,
2010/11/26 17:39
Bold prediction: this round of austerity measures will work about as well as the prior rounds did. Meanwhile, the austerity meme is spreading to Portugal and Spain, who, like Ireland and Greece, are tethered to the tough-to-devalue Euro. And it's spreading to the U.K., which is trying to get ahead of bond market problems by enacting its own austerity program.

-, On Wednesday November 24, 2010, 5:04 pm EST


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10 Market Bubbles That Could Soon Burst ?
2010/11/09 22:35
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/investing/10-market-bubbles-that-could-soon-burst/19708093/

1. Gold. The price of gold bullion has risen from $294 an ounce in 1998 to $1,404 today, an increase of 377%.

2. Real estate in China.

3. Solar energy.

4. Commodities. The focus is on the food category for bubbles.

5. Apple (AAPL). If CEO Steve Jobs either leaves or dies,

6. Social networking. Facebook, Twitter, Linkedln

7. Emerging market stocks.

8. Small tech companies. For example, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) got into a bidding war with Dell (DELL) over computer storage company 3Par and ended up paying a whopping $2.4 billion, 325 times the firm's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

9. The U.S. dollar.

10. U.S. government debt. The Fed's balance sheet has gone from $800 billion in 2008 to $2.2 trillion, and the central bank just announced it was printing another $600 billion. Says Wiedemer: "The medicine starts to become poison."



阿卡迪亞斯基
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stimulus myth
2010/10/26 13:04

Government can (almost) never stimulate economy, and here is why:
 
http://blog.udn.com/martinique/3671891
http://blog.udn.com/martinique/3676012
http://blog.udn.com/martinique/3679458

When politicans use any excuse to spend our money, they are likely just buying votes for next election. Government spending makes politicians look like they are doing something, and that's about it. 99.99% of gornment spending hurts economy. See above three posts.

Paul Krugman..? not sure, could be a communist.

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2010-10-26 20:56 回覆:
見仁見智啦 !

歷史 (Fact, 事實) 証明 政府 印發空頭鈔票 救通縮,有神效。

1. 1929 經濟大恐荒。

2. 2008 次貸 金融海嘯。

3. 台灣 劉兆玄 印發空頭 消費券,國安基金進場護盤救市。


Paul Krugman..? communist ? 老毛 印的是 糧票,不是鈔票? 印發空頭 人民幣 是 改革開放,黑貓白貓,以後的事。


看雲
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1929 年的大蕭條
2010/10/26 03:05

1929年大蕭條的起因之一,就是各國都怕財政收支不平衡,削減預算,使本來因消費減少引起的不景氣雪上加霜。

歐巴瑪政府刺激經濟的效果不彰,因為很多人被各種債務綁死了,不敢再亂花錢。而失業率高,工作保障低,也讓消費者不敢隨便刷卡。其實應該說十年前泡沫一個接一個,景氣(也許該用別的名詞)過度膨脹,才有現在的調整。

真正的解決之道是美國的生產力必須跟得上薪資(包括福利)上漲的速度。一味要求雇主提高薪資和員工福利,而勞動力(品質、產量)並沒有提高,註定要在全球競爭的環境中失敗。

摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目(mbr8879576) 於 2010-10-26 04:30 回覆:
因消費減少引起的不景氣

所言甚是!

增加消費 最有效的途徑:


http://blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/4526341