查維斯之死重於泰山?

郭都人

《中時電子報》日前發表了關於委內瑞拉總統查韋斯的社論，全文如下：

社論－後查維茲時代 拉美左派群龍無首

* 2013-03-07 01:47
* 中國時報
* 【本報訊】

即使委內瑞拉總統查維茲勇敢地與死神博鬥，還歷經了古巴醫術高明的專家至少四到五次的手術，但仍然無法戰勝癌症，而在前日撒手西歸，於國內和國際社會都留下兩極化的評價。

當年在拉丁美洲國家如巴西、阿根廷、智利、祕魯、烏拉圭、巴拉圭、和玻利維亞等國家歷經軍事政變和軍事強人統治時，委內瑞拉是令人稱羨的兩黨民主政治（一九五八年至一九九八年），由簡稱社民黨的政治選舉獨立組織委員會和民主行動黨的文人政府輪流執政。一九九八年查維茲以照顧中下階級和弱勢窮人的社會主義為主要訴求，當選總統，不僅暴露了過去文人治理的貪腐，也終結了治理無能的兩黨政治。

查維茲上台後，努力兌現其競選承諾，不僅補貼石油價格，還讓他們實際分享石油出口所帶來的利益。由於查維茲將大部份的石油部門收歸國有，因而有足夠的歲收來推動他的社會福利政策，他增加了低下階層最需要的教育、公衛、房屋津貼的預算，控制食物價格，成立公營的大賣場，讓貧困民眾可以取得遠低於市價的食物。在他執政期間，赤貧人口比例減少一半。這些都是為何在他過世後，委國多數人民傷痛欲絕，如喪考妣，因為查維茲確實是他們的衣食父母。

反對查維茲的政治勢力，認為他專斷獨裁，但委內瑞拉的民主選舉政治從未中斷，只是在查維茲統治下，過去兩黨右傾菁英輪流執政的分贓政治不復存在，取而代之的是草根性、具革命性質的左傾民粹運動。基於委國人民對查維茲的懷念和移情作用，目前擔任副總統的查維茲指定接班人馬杜羅，顯然有機會當選，並持續他的民粹路線。

在對外關係方面，查維茲自一九九八年當選總統後，與古巴及部份拉丁美洲國家共組「我們美洲人民波利伐聯盟」（ALBA），和美國唱反調，成為古巴以外，最讓華府頭痛的拉丁美洲國家。他將委內瑞拉豐富的石油，以低於國際價格賣給拉丁美洲的盟友，即使美國對查維茲極端厭惡，但他卻是區域內受到尊敬的金主。

此外，他也和美國最頭痛的伊朗領導人阿瑪迪內賈德眉來眼去，企圖營造跨區域的反美勢力。當年在小布希宣布伊朗、伊拉克、和北韓為「邪惡軸心」後，查維茲將古巴、巴西和委內瑞拉定位為「善良軸心」，頗有別苗頭的意思。在拉丁美洲幾乎全面向左傾時，唯一右傾親美的哥倫比亞政府，就成為查維茲想要顛覆的對象了。

在查維茲過世後，首先受到衝擊者就是拉丁美洲的左派力量，古巴的卡斯楚兄弟早就垂垂老矣，如今這位具領袖魅力、善於發表煽動演說且又具親和力的左派領導人搶先離世，讓這個陣營可說是群龍無首。玻利維亞的莫拉萊斯及厄瓜多的葛雷亞雖然左派色彩濃厚，過去也和查維茲關係良好，兩國都是ALBA 的成員，但這兩位領導人都缺乏查維茲的領袖魅力和反美資歷；此外，玻利維亞和厄瓜多的經濟實力原來就和為委內瑞拉有極大的差距，更沒有像後者的石油產量當作政治槓桿，看來拉丁美洲的左派勢力即使不會完全式微，也很難如過去一般地蔚為風氣，挑戰意識形態右傾的美國霸權。

至於委內瑞拉和美國關係是否會因查維茲離世而有所改善，從該國宣布不幸消息之同時，就將查維茲病因歸諸於美國的介入，並且驅逐兩位美國外交官的情形來看，這個期待顯然過於天真。兩國目前都沒有接受對方所派任的大使，如今又可能因為查維茲的死因而出現齟齬，在馬杜羅必須先鞏固政權的情況下，短期內兩國關係可能還是難有新的突破。委內瑞拉對台灣或許遙遠，查維茲之死所牽動的國際局勢，尤其是對美國在中南美洲勢力的變化，終會對美國在其他地區的國際政策有所影響，其後續變化仍然值得台灣關切。

要論證上述《社論》的「群龍無首」論，不妨先參考知名巴西作家在香港《亞洲時報》網站發表的有關評論：

THE ROVING EYE
El comandante has left the building
By Pepe Escobar

Now that would be some movie; the story of a man of the people who rises against all odds to become the political Elvis of Latin America. Bigger than Elvis, actually; a president who won 13 out of 14 national democratic elections. No chance you will ever see such a movie winning an Oscar - much less produced in Hollywood. Unless, of course, Oliver Stone convinces HBO about a cable/DVD special.

How enlightening to watch world leaders' reactions to the death of Venezuela's El Comandante Hugo Chavez. Uruguay's President Jose Mujica - a man who actually shuns 90% of his salary because he insists he covers his basic necessities with much less - once again reminded everyone how he qualified Chavez as "the most generous leader I ever met", while praising the "fortress of democracy" of which Chavez was a great builder.

Compare it with US President Barack Obama - in what sounds like a dormant cut and paste by some White House intern - reaffirming US support for "the Venezuelan people". Would that be "the people" who have been electing and re-electing Chavez non-stop since the late 1990s? Or would that be "the people" who trade Martinis in Miami demonizing him as an evil communist?

El Comandante may have left the building - his body defeated by cancer - but the post-mortem demonization will go on forever. One key reason stands out. Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world. Washington and that crumbling Kafkaesque citadel also known as the European Union sing All You Need is Love non-stop to those ghastly, feudal Persian Gulf petro-monarchs (but not to "the people") in return for their oil. By contrast, in Venezuela El Comandante came up with the subversive idea of using oil wealth to at least alleviate the problems of most of his people. Western turbo-capitalism, as is well known, does not do redistribution of wealth and empowerment of communitarian values.

I hate you, cabron

According to the Foreign Ministry, Vice-President Nicolas Maduro - and not the leader of the National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, very close to top military leaders - will be temporarily in power before new elections to be held within the next 30 days. Maduro is bound to win them handily; the Venezuelan political opposition is a fragmented joke. This spells out Chavismo without Chavez - much to the chagrin of the immense pan-American and pan-European Chavez-hating cottage industry

It's not an accident that El Comandante became immensely popular among "the people" of not only vast swathes of Latin America but also all across the Global South. These "people" - not in the Barack Obama sense - clearly saw the direct correlation between neoliberalism and the expansion of poverty (now millions of Europeans are also tasting it). Especially in South America, it was popular reaction against neoliberalism that led - via democratic elections - to a wave of leftist governments in the past decade, from Venezuela to Bolivia, Ecuador and Uruguay.

The Bush administration - to say the least - abhorred it. They could not do anything about Lula in Brazil - a clever operator who adopted neoliberal clothes (Wall Street loved him) but remained a progressive at heart. Washington - incapable of getting rid of the coup after coup reflexes of the 1960s and 1970s - thought that Chavez was a weak link. Thus came the April 2002 coup led by a military faction, with power given to a wealthy entrepreneur. The US-backed coup lasted less than 48 hours; Chavez was duly restored to power, supported by "the people" (the real thing) and most of the army.

So there's nothing unexpected in the announcement by Maduro, a few hours before El Comandante's death, that two US embassy employees would be expelled in 24 hours; Air Attache David Delmonaco, and assistant Air Attache Devlin Costal. Delmonaco was accused of fomenting - what else - a coup with some factions of the Venezuelan military. Those gringos never learn.

Immense suspicion among Chavistas that El Comandante may have been poisoned - a convoluted replay of what happened to Yasser Arafat in 2004 - is also predictable. It could have been highly radioactive polonium-210, as in Arafat's case. The Hollywood-friendly CIA may have some ideas about that.

All shook up

The verdict is now open on what exact brand of revolutionary was Chavez. He always praised everyone from Mao to Che in the revolutionary pantheon. He certainly was a very skillful popular leader with a fine geopolitical eye to identify centuries-old patterns of subjugation of Latin America. Thus his constant reference to the Hispanic revolutionary tradition from Bolivar to Marti.

Chavez's mantra was that the only way out for Latin America would be better integration; thus his impulsion of myriad mechanisms, from ALBA (the Bolivarian Alliance) to Petrocaribe, from the Banco del Sur (the Bank of the South) to UNASUR (the Union of South American countries).

As for his "socialism of the 21st century", beyond all ideological straitjackets he did more to explore the true spirit of common values - as an antidote to the putrefaction of turbo-charged, financial capitalism - than tons of neo-Marxist academic analyses.

No wonder the Goldman Sachs gang and cohorts saw him as worse than the Black Plague. Venezuela bought Sukhoi fighter jets; entered strategic relationships with BRICS members Russia and China - not to mention other Global South actors; maintains over 30,000 Cuban doctors practicing preventive medicine living in poor communities - what led to a boom of young Venezuelans studying medicine.

Stark numbers tell most of the story that needs to be known. Venezuelan public deficit is a mere 7,4% of GDP. Public debt is 51,3% of GDP - much less than the European Union average. The public sector - defying apocalyptic "communist" accusations - accounts for only 18,4% of the economy; less than state-oriented France and even the whole of Scandinavia. In terms of geopolitics of oil, quotas are established by OPEC; so the fact that Venezuela is exporting less to the US means it's diversifying its customers (and exporting more and more to strategic partner China).

And here's the clincher; poverty accounted for 71% of Venezuelan citizens in 1996. In 2010, the percentage had been reduced to 21%. For a serious analysis of the Venezuelan economy in the Chavez era, see here.

Years ago, it took a superb novelist like Garcia Marquez to reveal El Comandante's secret as The Great Communicator; he was one of them (his "people", in the not-Barack Obama sense), from the physical appearance to the mannerisms, convivial attitude and language (the same applied to Lula in relation to most Brazilians).

So while Oliver Stone surveys the film market, one will be waiting for a Garcia Marquez to elevate Chavez to novelistic Walhalla. One thing is sure; in terms of a Global South narrative, history will record that El Comandante may have left the building; but then, after him the building was never the same again.

其實，查韋斯的最大成就就是對抗西方世界「全球化」的努力，而西方世界「全球化」的最終成敗，是決定西方世界命運的關鍵問題，這是連上海親日宣傳家都了解的事實。

其實，台灣民眾最需要密切注意的是，委內瑞拉與中國大陸的關係。

中國「沉痛哀悼」委內瑞拉總統查韋斯

中國外交部表示，中國對委內瑞拉總統查韋斯逝世表示沉痛哀悼。

外交部發言人華春瑩星期三（3月6日）說：「查韋斯總統是委內瑞拉的傑出領導人，也是中國人民的好朋友，為促進中委友好合作關係的發展出了重大貢獻。」