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Trump country is confident and growing again

Liberal parts of America are still economically better off

HOW STRONG is the American economy? It depends who you ask. Just 37% of Democrats say the economy is in good shape according to the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank. Among Republicans, the figure is twice as high. By one reckoning, this partisan gap in economic sentiment is now at its widest point since at least Ronald Reagan’s presidency. The divide may not just be in people’s heads. Figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics show that since Donald Trump’s 2016 election, job growth has been slightly higher on average in the parts of the country that voted for Mr Trump than the ones that voted for Hillary Clinton. In 2017, employment in red counties grew by roughly 1.7%, up from 1% in 2016. In blue counties, employment in 2017 grew by 1.6%. A study released today by Indeed, a jobs website, estimates that in the past year and a half, the unemployment rate has fallen 0.9 percentage points for likely Trump supporters and 0.7 percentage points for likely Clinton supporters.

There are three possible explanations for the improving economic fortunes of Trump country. First, some industries that are concentrated in conservative parts of America—most notably mining—are growing faster than the overall economy. Second, the American economy is in the latter stages of an expansion when firms tend to hire more unskilled workers, a trend which may favour Trumpier cities and towns. Finally, confidence among Trump supporters may be providing a psychological boost to consumption and investment. Academic research suggests that consumer sentiment can influence economic activity. A recent poll by Ipsos shows that 66% of Republicans feel more comfortable making a major purchase than they did six months ago. Among Democrats the figure is just 44%.

While jobs may be plentiful in red parts of America for the moment, liberal parts of the country are still better off by many measures. The employment rate in Trump counties, as measured by the share of the total population with a job, is 46% compared with 49% in counties that favoured Mrs Clinton. Jobs in liberal parts of the country also pay higher wages (most likely because the job opportunities in such places are different). Workers in red counties earn an average of about $860 per week; in blue counties the figure is $1,200, or 40% more. Mr Trump has many economic statistics he can tout while on the campaign trail. These might not be the best examples.

筆者是這樣回答的：

“Make America Great Again” is what US President (PR) Donald J. Trump (DT) has made a commitment to recuperate the US’s substantial competence and common goods. Since he was nominated as the GOP PR’s candidate, I almost every day read his Facebook (FB) page where he releases real news. Much of the posts fulfill the requirements of US traditional value, stouter political (PO’s) and economic (E’s) might, assorted social and national (NA) progress like the unprecedented remark on the vigorous stock market, and the his fervent obligatory of unity.

On Aug 30, DT posted a sign on FB: “OUT TODAY: Consumer Confidence Index is the HIGHEST IN 18 YEARS! Also, GDP revised upward to 4.2% from 4.1%. Our country is doing GREAT!”. "Were going to go a lot higher than these numbers - and these are great numbers", he said. For US citizens, the surroundings of consumer markets now reflect the stronger US E, comprised of benign inflation, as well as a strong labour market and corporate investment (IN) have contributed to this positive landscape for growth. Moreover, the unemployment rate (UR) could decrease to the lowest since the rate was 2.5% in 1953 (reported by New York Times’ Neil Irwin) that demonstrates the DT’s incomparable administrative efficiency.

Overall, just for less than a year the E reform is impressed on the extensively scale of IN and the resurgence in the capital inflow. The lower UR means the fortune’s re-distribution goes smoother than ever, like that in the 1950s “good time” when the impetus of consumption is sufficient to offset the remaining banks and public debt mounting during the Barack Obama’s 2 terms. The IN helps recuperate the US’s technological (TECH’s) and military R&D that inadvertently optimize the NA wealth and competence.

As Washington Post’s Daniel W. Drezner “Assessing the Trump E” on Jul 26, in the 1st quarter (QU) of 2016, the total net inflow was $146.5bn. For the same QU in 2017, it was $89.7bn. In 2018, it was down to $51.3bn. This decline was not driven by changes in Chinese IN, which flows both ways and so contributes little to changes in the net figure. (In the 1st QU of 2016, the US saw a small net inflow of $4.5bn from China, and in the same period in 2018, net outflow to China of $300m.)

The largest devotion to the US boosting E is owing to the tax cuts DT ratified last December (cooperate tax from 35% to 21%), in company with the diplomatically expansive protectionism. In 2016, DT appealed to the electorates for the assistance to rescue then US E from merely 1% growth. In 2017, DT’s release of US E prospect in the successive years is the exorbitant jubilation more than the 3.3% annual growth (AG) of GDP. Most of Eists moreover agrees on his surmise of AG 4-6% or the higher. (BBC, Jul 27 2018)

Besides, DT’s major E’s decisions in 2017 was to replace Janet L. Yellen with Jerome H. Powell as Fed chair, launching a burst of deregulation that keep stable on monetary and stock market. In fact, many of the DT’s measures on E loosening is a revised edition of the Obama’s, so Drezner referred to DT as the “stable genius”.

The concept of Trump E directly unleashes the B2B’s replenishment. The fall of Apple product’s sale price, after iPhone X, could speed up compared to the most of previous types thanks to the OEM Foxconn’s IN turning to US following DT’s policy. Many TECH firms swerve to purchase the raw material, equipment and develop the new intelligence, or to invest in a diversity domestically like HP and Disney, the both epitome of industrially old faithful loyalty to GOP. HP recovered to the manufacturer owning the greatest share on personal computer’s global market. HP’s platinum type is Spectre X360 now crowned the Microsoft-chosen champion of Intel 8th Processor-loaded laptop with the exclusive home-made touchpad patent. Disney buys off BMA Tech and buys out the 21th Century Fox, reorganizing the Cable TV realm where the US largest moviemaker encompasses ABC, Disney Channel, ESPN, A+E, Freeform. Also, Disney builds up the hegemony in Studio Entertainment derived of the Maker Studio, in addition to the extant Parks and Resorts, Internet broadcasting, Consumers and Interactive Media.

By comparison, the “rampart” of DT’s protectionism led to the pessimistic aspect, like the rising cost of Coca Cola’s drinking confined to the overseas long-term contract of rent and mortgage with foreign banks. If the likes of US firms would like to enjoy the Trump E, the price increases nevertheless help sustain US E longer enough to ameliorate the public servant and labour’s wage.

In May 2018, the US export is worth $215bn, that evinced US historic-largest productivity and the DT’s prominent governing prowess. Given the major items’ indicates the US E endurance, including personal consumption (PECO), private domestic investment (PDI), inventory changes (IC) and imports & exports (I&E), shows the E propinquity, the PECO rebounds offsetting the deficit of PDI and IC’s decline. (1 of 3)

Yet I&E’s fluctuation or prospect in near future depends on how further trade war and foreign sanction last – not merely entangled with China, but Europe, Russia, Australia and the impending Japan. The recovery of I&E’s competence indeed rescue US E, but the reliable trades partnership gets fewer in a quandary about whether the trade deficit matters heavier than the parity of free trade. If the excess at the height of the trade fortress declines the US’s exchange with the rest of the world, many foreign state’s dignity could be taken into consideration, or the retailers’ in-between hierarchy could reshuffle resulting in the greater uncertainty of market. DT had better abandon the plan on the higher tariff on the respective state’s core industrial items like China-made the semi-conductor, smartphone and laptop.

GOP members (Republicans, Gs), whose prerequisite of PO’s idea is individual liberty, tends to spontaneously believe in collectivism, NAism from 2 groups that have eminent disparity in income – big land-owner, the lower strata of downtown inhabitants mainly including most of White blue-collars staffs, vendors, academic professionals and wealthiest heavy industry or business entrepreneurs. These Red Elephants embraces the Right Wings cultural conservatism and Classical Liberalism.

Basically, since Obama’s 1^st term, the White Gs UR had ever been serious due to the work opportunities “purposely” yielding to a racial minority without the racial equality. In fact, even if the E index got warmer in Obama’s 2^nd term, these Red labours’ bad condition yet turned better. Most of GOP supporters seek the E’s subsistence oriented to no partisan society with the E civic right spreading. The E ability of GOP’s supporters can be divided into 2 to 3 parts, comprised of those who have basic income in country and cities and the industrial or services entrepreneurs - the GOP PO’s elite for centuries is born from the PO’s clan and business leaders. They mostly express their fervent hope for the NA development, whose educational attainment is less than the Democrats’ (DEs). They are rewarded the lower than DEs, but Gs appear diligent usually just with the basic sustenance engrossed in their business and lifestyle. That is, the vehement sense of self-recognition and state’s obligatory raise the Gs’ spirits as compensation for their own lower strata in society.

Democrats (DEs) esteems the fundamental value of democracy, the PO’s morality like injustice, no discrimination; the E’s equality’s means is to grab the fortune of the wealthy and then to transfer to the poor. Since Congress election in 2006, over 50% support of wealthier 20% vote for DEs, showing they have the will to distribute the fortune in accord to DEs policy, rather than a chase of E momentum. But it’s not a good idea. The means isn’t accord to the humanitarian virtue of the private asset’s ownership, whether they are poor or rich. Their support of Obama brought about the sluggish period of US R&D’s attainment that could solve neither the youth’s UR nor fiscal embarrassments. DEs are inclined to prank in the policy’s drive of the democratic morality in disguise; it’s pity that so many wealthier white-collar middle class keep clinging of the preferences for DEM. Their superficial egalitarian couldn’t cover in success the reality of individual and NA competence. When the US ordinary man’d like to achieve the higher goal, the DEs’ ideas are incompatible to their orientation and compel them to support GOP in turn.

The response to DT’s means of taxation is similar to that to Laisssez-faire economics Ronald Reagan (RR) declared, but DT evades its shortage of debt’s expansion by cutting the red tape and the government (GOV) spending. When RR took over the administration, RR was eager to end the largest recession since the 1930s Great Recession. RR agreed on the statement “The E is strongest when all the GOV does is protect individuals rights.” And “The greed is good.”

DT showed the agency’s reform in a mix of incomplete socialist liberalism, reorganizing a revised efficient welfare institution divided into 2 parts, USDA and HHS since Obamacare began. According to the analysis by Kimberly Amadeo (the Balance Aug 23, 2018), before then, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act repeals the Affordable Care Acts tax penalties for those who dont get insurance. On Jan 11, 2018, it imposes the work requirements on Medicaid recipients. It shortened the enrollment (EN) period and closed the federal exchanges during peak times during EN. In other words, DT makes the welfare’s precondition rooted in the universal market-based consciousness of US conventional value of arduous work in recovery while helping families move towards self-sufficiency. A uniform Department of Health and Public Welfare (DHPW) would streamline things. (2 of 3)

Thus, given the chart’s statistics, the Red Country (Gs side) had higher degree of tolerance with the lower UR, whilst the DEs own the wealthier livings but often seeks the better living standard. Basically, the DT’s measures are oriented to improvement of the Gs’ quagmire, and the effect turns the US E into the healthier structure based on the legitimate dismantled E rules. Then Gs could go dominant on E advance. The DT policy’s fundament of each citizen’s value appeals to many people to awaken the sense of NA unity so that the DT’s grade for E’s scorecard will be reflected on the mid-term election despite the opposition enraged by DT’s demeanour, inhumane measures on illegal migrants and the power struggle inside GOP. Vote for DT & GOP, and a revival of altruistic American society shines again in valor, although I feel fretful of DTs incipient sanction, the third pieces of trade banned list, on my beloved motherland led by a lofty China Communist Party. (3 of 3)

Reference: Donald Trumps Economic Plan https://www.thebalance.com/donald-trump-economic-plan-3994106 Why Trump Wants a Department of Public Welfare https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/06/donald-trump-mick-mulvaney-welfar... Trumps Economic Scorecard: 18 Months Into His Presidency https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/07/27/trumps-economic-score... Is the Trump Economy Sustainable? https://www.weeklystandard.com/irwin-m-stelzer/is-the-trump-economy-sust... Assessing the Trump Economy https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/07/26/assessi... A Chinese dissident Tsao Chang-qing’s article involving what kind of difference between GOP and DEM : http://tw.aboluowang.com/2016/0206/688273.html

上週翻一翻文章，正好有和意識型態主題相關的是美國政治和經濟復甦的一則報導兩黨支持者的有趣現象的事。筆者身為美國總統川普的粉絲，雖然川普發動了保護主義，使中美的貿易糾紛使全球經濟混亂了一陣，但是美國的國力在川普的經濟政策強力主導下，獲得了一定程度恢復霸主地位。筆者幾乎每天看穿普的臉書文章，偶而看川普的官方推特網頁文章。筆者先從最近川普臉書(https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/)中提到最近一季的所有亮麗經濟表現，而且將提出更「偉大」的建設方案。

美國在第二季時，股票達到了史上最高峰，失業率是2008年以來最低的，而且還會更低到1950年代「好時光」的低點，煤礦工人回到崗位，對企業及富人減稅和減除繁文褥節已經收到成效。這很類似雷根所謂「滴水經濟」，認為民主黨的所謂人道又民主的價值觀，實則為甜言蜜語，只會造成均貧，表面功夫橫向，又不知道政治的確存在零和理論，不能夠以法律強行的作私人財產的變相剝奪。這就提到了保守派和自由派政治人物對經濟及個人財富的相對看法。

根據華盛頓郵報Daniel W. Drezner七月份的評論，中美貿易戰影響美國的經濟沒有是負面的，因此順帶一提相對來看中國是比較沒有籌碼的一方，所提的中美數據在2016年和2018年從淨輸入(入超)45億美金，到競輸入(出超)，若考慮私人投資和進口項目是衰頹的，喔喔這裡不是I&E，有點寫錯是只有I(import)，其實美國的經濟單靠外資加上擴大內需，不到一年至少在數據等表面功夫有作到復甦成功，而很穩健，因此該作者認為川普是位不是天才的天才，是用基本公式，基本道理，以及作很像幾十年前新公共管理的解制而被稱為穩健天才，在各項正面統計數據上均往右上方的期待折線上升。而川普總統能夠繼續有此成就除了有市場機制的自然調節，本身白宮執政者的政策也很重要，川普除了築牆作國內外商品區隔，向國內富人減稅和鼓勵美國籍生產方企業主的資金回流，確定了源源不絕的資金挹助從生產方到消費方，而為美國市場帶來新的財富和機運，國力和軍力也恢復了不少。

寫到這裡好像筆者是不折不扣美國帝國主義者，不是的，這個現在的美國經濟是築牆，作通透膜式的新的更換，進入的和出口的都隨川普總統上任作更新的指令控制。這個提高關稅的玩法，不僅和WTO世界貿易組織相違背，而且應該不只括起公司破產風氣的中國、歐洲和一半一半有新協議的墨西哥，還有加拿大、日本和澳洲也可能被迫作更多的產業項目上的讓步，這些國家沒有辦法只能看投資客跑走，川普就這麼吸金成功。不過川普總統正在走國際貿易的不侷限性的逆向，就算全球戰略上只讓盟邦少了一點點的信任，美國的市場長期來看依傳統上民族大融爐的觀念，不會支持這政策有就中國來講的「蠻橫」下去的事情。曾經有零售業也擔心外國的貨源減少，會因契約無法即時調整而使小店主的成本吃緊，而類似可口可樂公司，因為海外廠房受限與當地的契約，沒辦法即時搬回美國，若可口可樂公司會將生產線搬回美國，這飲料勢必會漲價。台灣的可口可樂就是一瓶29元會漲個一兩塊新台幣超過一美元吧。蘋果是一個例子，筆者在寫這篇時，蘋果公司還沒有公佈各地的公司貨單機售價，雖然今年這檔又有挑戰天價的機種出現，不過筆者有猜到C/P值的確有變高，但是相對來說敢出了新一波高檔貨，所以電信業者做門號綁約時，取得了較大的彈性，這有助於手機市場穩而有彈性，而跌幅應該也會比較大，筆者認為消費者或果粉組成成份應該也會被這檔貨弄到洗牌幾個月。

除了減稅，川普總統把聯邦準備理事會Fed的主席從Janet L. Yellen換成Jerome H. Powell，基本上維持理性主義的態勢，並不一定管川普的政策，就業市場越強勁，升息的壓力就越大，通貨膨脹升溫到一定程度時，Fed主席通常會宣怖升息以利金融機構吸收熱錢。在這波復甦期中，和川普保持距離，但是最顯著兩大恢復各專業領域霸業的強勢例子，是惠普和迪士尼。惠普在今年恢復為出貨數最大的電腦公司，取代接近九年雄霸的聯想電腦，今年六月的台北國際電腦展COMPUTEX，微軟每年一提的年度最佳電腦，就有和連續五年的Lenovo Yoga 翻轉並列的Spectre X360款，這個惠普的Vibrant是自家專利的觸控面版，保障了使用者的隱私。迪士尼集團除了繼續在本家卡通、國內有線電視頻道及遊樂園營運，還繼續併購和擴充新的相關產業規模。

筆者延續在經濟學者的討論區所寫的上一篇，拿共和黨和民主黨的支持者所持的意識型態現況，作一個比較。共和黨尊重個人自由和自由結社而成的集體意識，共和黨的支持者是大部份的白人為主體，收入上呈兩極化，但川普的意識型態執政讓這兩種現象緩和了一些。以前是住城區裡面的白人低薪藍領、學術專業人士及重工業與服務業的大企業主，支持者傳統政治家族繼續在普選中競逐和分配政治資源。川普也是保守主義，也有文化保守主義，但只限於經濟政策上進行減稅等減少干預市場; 又其反對菁英治理，和麥坎等老一代共和黨的保守主義者信奉的古典自由主義版本不同，總體的考量味道偏向國家保護主義、霸權主義，民主黨則是近年信奉自由主義，爭取執政以便「劫富濟貧」，使得人人不分原有貧富，能夠有儘量相同的經濟水平，但對於私有財產的概念比較弱。也就是說，所提倡的民主價值並沒有落實人權和人性尊嚴或說尊重個體差異。

聽起來美國的富人會偏向共和黨，但最近十年來的白領階級傾向支持民主黨，以同意賦稅公平來維持社會。民主黨員普遍同意凱因斯的消費理論，因此政策上又有福利政策，又能以舉債帶動消費，遇到川普的經濟政策時，所受到的小惠比較少，因此感受度並沒有變化，覺得川普的經濟政策普普通通，無關緊要。但是很明顯地，共和黨的支持者了解海耶克所討論的問題，而川普和執政黨官僚在相信民眾會珍惜個人自由為前提，所作的減免及獎勵投資的確使國內生產的貨品流通變快，成功擴大內需及消費規模，形成良性循環。但是國債舉債程度也隨之提高為其主要隱憂，川普也意識過此點而避免雷根總統任上的八年間數倍舉債問題。筆者因此以為川普的作為才是一個民主國家的領導風範，而不需計較太多其言論上的措辭不雅或是小發牢騷的問題，政策有助於國家的復興。最後一方面是結束所謂Obamacare歐巴馬式保險政策，並以徹底作機構改革來改造公家福利部門，確立自助式的福利政策，賺多享多，沒賺沒有福利的資本主義想法，理帳很清楚而不需要拐彎抹角。

(2018,10,4補充)接近期中選舉，一般預料即使因為筆者最後一段所列的川普的缺點，還有一項沒列的是大法官任命案的爭議至今仍然沒有平息，但是對共和黨來講聲譽並不會受到太大的損害，備受爭義而被川普提名的卡瓦諾(Brett Kavanaugh)是傳統上支持前任共和黨總統布希的親信。(http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/18/7/10/n10552677.htm，2018.7.11大紀元時報) 這可以挽回川普在共和黨內部的聲譽和團結。在上週公佈對華的新一波制裁，向中國約現值5000億美元課25%及以上的稅金，也是首次台灣的產業受衝擊的開始，提升了美國國家主義的強盛，另外和加拿大及墨西哥重新簽訂「妥協版」的北美自由貿易協定(因為本來政見上川普覺得要廢止)可順便防止中國產品傾銷北美。在聯合國說是美國優先，但是若是美國的「朋友」，川普的確夠自傲自己的經濟學，說也可以拿自己的經驗努力，「Make the world great again」，不失為一大國領導者。期中選舉上，傳統的共和黨在Paul Ryan不連任議長的眾議院選舉上，還是會過半，票比上屆的少了一些。總之川普的強勢作風不會在短時間內於國際政治或經濟上衰頹，和日本也是同樣地在自由民主黨總裁選舉過後，穩坐政治權位的安倍晉三所提的第二代經濟學相比，川普的經濟學成功的復甦國內的各項發展。而共和黨員的國家傳統主義仍盛，至於薪水和吃飽喝足的程度不用太高，就會繼續投票給共和黨，這不是窮，因為川普的確發輝理性面企業主義強調的人本的作為而非人性的問題。民主黨的黨員財富很大，個人維權的觀念很重，但相對上組織面會比較鬆散，這已經和冷戰間的民主黨主要選民結構有很大的差異，看到這裡要提醒要注意：因為是民主黨員，就「被說很有錢」和「應該很有錢」，這統計是顯示現況，不是指導式的問題及回答。附帶一題，很矛盾地（筆者是川粉），筆者從北京的中國國務院那兒聽說就算劉鶴的談判團要等期中選舉後才會去作正式場合的反擊，恐怕一個月內還會有下一波對中國企業及供應鏈的制裁吧？