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| 2008/08/24 22:09:56瀏覽695｜回應0｜推薦3 | |
俄羅斯與喬治亞 數百年宿仇難解 【By JAMES TRAUB／王麗娟譯】 Centuries of Tumult for Russia and Georgia The hostilities between Russia and Georgia that erupted August 8 over the breakaway province of South Ossetia look, in retrospect, almost absurdly over-determined. For years, the Russians have claimed that Georgia’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been preparing to retake the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and have warned that they would use force to block such a bid. Mr. Saakashvili, for his part, describes today’s Russia as a belligerent power ruthlessly pressing at its borders, implacably hostile to democratic neighbors like Georgia and Ukraine. 俄羅斯與喬治亞共和國8月8日為尋求分裂的南奧塞梯亞省爆發的敵對戰爭，回顧之下，雙方過度決絕武斷的程度簡直荒唐。多年來，俄國人一再指控喬治亞總統薩哈希維利一直準備重新奪取地位尚有爭議的南奧塞梯亞和阿布哈茲這些爭議地區，俄方並警告，他們將以武力制止這項企圖。薩哈希維利這方則形容今天的俄國是好戰強權，對民主鄰國喬治亞和烏克蘭死抱敵意。 In short, tensions have been brewing between Russia and Georgia; it was only a matter of time before the conflict would finally erupt. 簡而言之，俄喬關係早已潛藏著緊張，衝突終於爆發只是遲早的事。 It’s scarcely clear yet how things will stand between the two when the fighting ends. In recent conversations in Georgia, President Saakashvili compared the country to Czechoslovakia in 1938, trusting the West to save it from a ravenous neighbor. 雙方戰火平息後會是何種情勢，仍無端倪。總統薩哈希維利最近在喬治亞的談話中，將喬治亞比擬為1938年的捷克，相信西方國家會從餓虎撲羊的鄰國手裡拯救自己。 “If Georgia fails,” he said to me darkly two months ago, “it will send a message to everyone that this path doesn’t work.” 兩個月前，薩哈希維利不祥地告訴我：「如果喬治亞失利，這事傳遞給世人的訊息將是，民主這條路行不通。」 During a 10-day visit to Georgia in June, I heard the 1938 analogy again and again, as well as another to 1921, when Bolshevik troops crushed Georgia’s thrilling, and brief, first experiment with liberal rule. 今年6月訪問喬治亞10天中，我一再聽到他們拿1938年來相比，另一個比喻是1921年，當時布爾什維克部隊粉碎喬治亞短暫但振奮人心的第一個自由政制實驗。 The roots of this bitter relationship are deep and tangled. Threatened by the expanding Persian empire, in 1783 the Georgians formally accepted the protection of Russia; this arrangement ended when Russia annexed Georgia in 1801. The chaos of the Russian Revolution finally gave Georgia a chance to restore its sovereignty a century later. The Georgians were Mensheviks — social democrats, in effect — and for three years enjoyed one of the world’s most progressive governments. The Bolshevik government signed a treaty respecting Georgia’s independence — which Europe, as President Saakashvili reminded me, naively insisted on taking at face value. By the time the Europeans woke up to reality, it was too late. 俄喬恩怨根深柢固，盤根錯節。1783年，對波斯帝國擴張大感威脅的喬治亞正式接受俄國保護，這項安排於1801年俄國兼併喬治亞時結束。一個世紀後，俄羅斯革命亂局，終於給喬治亞一個恢復主權的機會。喬治亞人是孟什維克，也就是社會民主主義政黨，其後三年，喬治亞是全球最有進步精神的政府之一。布爾什維克政府簽約尊重喬治亞獨立，總統薩哈希維利提醒我說，當時歐洲天真的堅持照單全收。等歐洲認清事實，為時已晚。 The Russians viewed Georgia as a romantic, exotic frontier. At the same time, Stalin, though himself Georgian, kept the republic subdued through brutal purges. The head of the Georgian Communist party was Lavrenti Beria, a cold-blooded killer who would become the master architect of Stalin’s terror. When, at last, the Soviet empire collapsed, Georgia immediately broke away and declared its independence, in 1991. 在俄國人眼中，喬治亞是一塊浪漫、充滿異國情調的邊疆。史達林雖是喬治亞人，卻以殘暴的整肅壓制喬治亞。喬治亞共黨領袖是拉倫提‧貝利亞，一個冷血劊子手，後來成為史達林恐怖統治的總設計師。蘇聯帝國終於解體，喬治亞立即在1991年脫離並宣布獨立。 The infant country spent the next decade stagnating under the Soviet-style rule of Eduard Shevardnadze, the former foreign minister to Mikhail Gorbachev. But in 2003, Mr. Shevardnadze was peacefully overthrown in what came to be known as the Rose Revolution. Mr. Saakashvili was elected the following year. Since then, Georgia has become a model of Westernization. Mr. Saakashvili has also made Georgia one of the world’s most pro-American countries. 這個還在襁褓階段的國家，在戈巴契夫時代前外長謝瓦納茲的蘇聯式僵化統治下度過十年。但2003年，謝瓦納茲在眾所周知的「玫瑰革命」中被和平推翻。薩哈希維利翌年當選總統，其後喬治亞成為西化模範，薩哈希維利並把喬治亞變成全球最親美的國家之一。 It was at this very moment that another ambitious young figure was reshaping Russia. The combination of Vladimir V. Putin’s reforms and the dizzying rise in the price of oil and gas have rapidly restored Russia to the status of world power. And Mr. Putin has harnessed that power in the service of aggressive nationalism. 就在這當口，另一個雄心滿滿的年輕人著手重新打造俄國。普亭的改革，加上石油和天然氣價格瘋狂飆漲，協助俄國快速重回世界強權地位。普亭並駕馭這強權，遂行其侵略性民族主義。 When the Soviet Union collapsed, Abkhazia and South Ossetia sought to separate themselves from Georgia in bloody conflicts during the early 1990s. Both wars ended with cease-fires that were negotiated by Russia. Over time, the stalemates hardened into “frozen conflicts.” 蘇聯瓦解，阿布哈茲與南奧塞梯亞在1990年代初期的血腥衝突中尋求脫離喬台亞獨立。兩個獨立戰爭都由俄國居間調解停火。久而久之，雙方的僵持狀態硬化成「凍結衝突」。 Mr. Saakashvili vowed to restore Georgia’s “territorial integrity.” Soon after taking office, he succeeded in regaining Georgian control over the southwestern province of Ajara. Then, in the summer of 2004, citing growing banditry and chaos, he sent Interior Ministry troops into South Ossetia. After a series of inconclusive clashes, the troops were forced to make a humiliating withdrawal. 薩哈希維利誓言恢復喬治亞「領土完整」。他上台不久，將喬治亞西南省分阿加拉重新納入掌控。接著在2004年夏天，他以盜匪日益猖獗、國家紛亂為由，派內政部部隊進入南奧塞梯亞。一連串不得其果的衝突後，部隊被迫不光彩撤退。 This violation of the status quo infuriated the Russians, and Mr. Saakashvili agreed to seek a negotiated settlement in Abkhazia. By late 2005, a Georgian mediator had initialed an agreement, but the agreement collapsed in early 2006. 違反現狀的舉動激怒俄國，薩哈希維利同意談判解決阿布哈茲問題。2005年底，喬治亞調停者提出協議草案，但2006年初協議破裂。 Russia lifted sanctions on Abkhazia last March. This had nothing to do with local events: Mr. Putin had tried for years to prevent Kosovo from declaring its independence from Serbia, and when the Kosovars went ahead, with strong American and European support, last February, Mr. Putin responded by leveling a blow at America’s ally in the Caucasus. 今年3月，俄國解除對阿布哈茲的制裁。此舉與當地情勢無關：普亭多年來試圖阻撓科索伏宣布脫離塞爾維亞獨立。今年2月，科索伏在美歐力挺下逕自宣布獨立，普亭的反應就是打擊美國在高加索地區的盟國。 Soon afterward, the Russian Duma held hearings on recognition of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway republic in Moldova. Moscow argued that the West’s logic on Kosovo should apply as well to these ethnic communities seeking to free themselves from the control of a hostile state. And then, in mid-April, Mr. Putin held out the possibility of recognition for the breakaway republics. 不久，俄國國會針對承認阿布哈茲、南奧及摩爾多瓦境內親俄的特聶斯特自治共和國舉行聽證。莫斯科稱，西方國家對科索伏的邏輯，也應適用於這些尋求脫離敵對國家控制的族群。4月中普亭稱可能承認這些分裂的自治共和國。 On April 21, Mr. Saakashvili called the Russian leader to demand that he reverse the decision. And Mr. Putin, according to several of Mr. Saakashvili’s associates, was defiant. 4月21日，薩哈希維利致電普亭要求他收回決定。根據薩哈希維利好幾位幕僚的說法，普亭悍然拒絕。 The atmosphere during the early spring was electric with tension. Georgia accused Russia of shooting down a drone aircraft over Abkhazia; a United Nations report later confirmed the claim. Russia insisted that Georgia was preparing for war; the Georgians had, indeed, mobilized troops and prepared fuel dumps. 初春，氣氛緊繃如電。喬治亞指控俄國擊落阿布哈茲上空一架無人飛機；一份聯合國的報告稍後證實指控無誤。俄國堅稱，喬治亞正在備戰，喬治亞人也確實正在動員部隊與準備油庫。 Russia responded by dispatching 400 paratroopers and a battery of howitzers to a staging area not far from the cease-fire line, provoking a strong protest from NATO. In fact, diplomats in Georgia and elsewhere give somewhat more credence to the Russian claims than to Georgia’s. State Department officials urged Mr. Saakashvili to calm down. Perhaps each side was trying to provoke the other into striking first, and thus losing the battle of public opinion. Of course, that’s how wars often start. 俄國的回應是派400名傘兵與一個榴彈砲兵連，前往距離停火線不遠的集結地區，引來北約強烈抗議。其實，派駐喬治亞等地的外交官比較相信俄國而非喬治亞的說法。美國國務院官員呼籲薩哈希維利冷靜。或許雙方都在刺激對方先發動攻擊，先攻者會輸掉輿論戰。當然，戰爭往往就是這樣開頭的。 It’s a pretty safe bet that Georgia and Abkhazia will not resolve their conflict on their own. Both breakaway regions are quite willing to live with the Russianenforced status quo, but Georgian officials consider that status quo unacceptable. 有一件事可以穩打包票，就是喬治亞與阿布哈茲不會自行解決衝突。兩個自治區都相當樂於維持俄國執行的現狀，但喬治亞官員說那是無法接受的現狀。對西方而言，核心關鍵是俄國邊界上的民主或至少獨立國家必須能活下來。 For the West, the core issue is the survival of democratic, or at least independent, states along Russia’s frontier. But for this reason, even the United States, which has been Georgia’s most loyal ally, distinguishes between the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the one hand, and Russia’s threat to Georgia’s autonomy and integrity on the other. 然而，也就是基於這個理由，連喬治亞最忠實的友邦美國也說，阿布哈茲與南奧塞梯亞的地位是一回事，俄國對喬治亞自主與領土完整的威脅是另一碼事。 Russia threatens Georgia, but Georgia threatens Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia looks like a crocodile to Georgia, but Georgia looks to Russia like the cat’s paw of the West. One party has all the hard power it could want, the other all the soft. And now the frozen conflict between them has thawed and cracked. It will take a great deal of care and attention even to put things back to where they were before. 俄國威脅喬治亞，喬治亞又威脅阿布哈茲與南奧。喬治亞看俄國像鱷魚，俄國則視喬治亞為西方的貓爪子（傀儡）。一方無比強悍，一方軟弱到極點。如今雙方的凍結衝突已開始解凍與出現裂縫。就算只求恢復原狀，也得花費相當心力與工夫。 . .
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