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Quiz 智力測驗 The Monty Hall Problem
2009/12/23 20:25:38瀏覽1615|回應5|推薦42

The Monty Hall Problem

很有意思,大家來猜猜。The Monty Hall problem 談機率問題,是美國一個電視節目"Let's make a deal"猜獎節目,主持人叫Monty Hall,他想出來的。下面是題目:

A game-show host has placed a car behind one of three doors. There is a goat behind each of the other doors.

"First you point toward a door," he says. "Then I'll open one of the other doors to reveal a goat. After I've shown you the goat, you make your final choice whether to stick with your initial choice of doors, or to switch to the remaining door. You win whatever is behind the door."

You begin by pointing to door number 1. The host shows you that door number 3 has a goat. What should you do (assuming you want the best odds of winning the car)?

29.6% have gotten this question correct
  •  Switch to door #2
  •  Stay with door #1
  •  It doesn't matter
  •  Punch the host in the jaw

上面是一題智力測驗,您的答案是什麼,我選第四,哈哈!下面是解答請參考:



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Apple *
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解釋
2010/01/01 10:38
Apple來解釋吧!
 
"選了#1, #3後是隻羊. 要不要換選#2? 還是仍選#1?"
 
答案是: #1贏的機率是33.3%; #2贏的機率是66.67%. 當然要換!
 
為什麼???
 
   a. 開始時三個門後有車的機率相同, 都是33.33%.
 
   b. 選了#1, 其後有車的機率還是33.33%.
 
   c. 換言之, 另外兩個門(#2 and #3)後有車的機率是66.67%.
 
   d. 既然#3後面是羊, 所有的66.67%都只好給#2.
Simple, right?!
 
Apple
葉子~(ming858585) 於 2010-01-01 23:57 回覆:

還是Apple 解釋得清楚。


吹牛皮 大俠
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hahaha
2009/12/26 01:06

My English is poor and my Math is even poorer. However, I do know this is a basic "conditional probability problem" learned from middle school. If you couldn't answer this answer, you probably couldn't enter any good high school in Taiwan. Hahaha....


謝謝你的來訪, 我為你又寫了下列文章, 請您來賜教批評:
葉子~(ming858585) 於 2009-12-29 22:53 回覆:
I know you are smart. Tell me what is the correct answer.

陳文錫~就是忙
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2009/12/24 11:33

老千當家,十賭九詐~~

我手氣不好,放棄吧~~~~是賭博的機率問題,不是靠智力吧?

祝耶誕快樂


本來就沒有,何必去強求;冷暖人間情,點滴在心頭。
葉子~(ming858585) 於 2009-12-24 18:08 回覆:

哈哈!您一定不賭的。

這是好玩的智力測驗。


風緣緣
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HA HA
2009/12/24 09:14

哈…葉子老師選的遊戲,滿有意思喔…^^

葉子~(ming858585) 於 2009-12-24 18:06 回覆:
是呀!Merry Christmas to You.

Apple *
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爭議
2009/12/23 22:40

哈哈, 這個問題Apple以前看過了.

其實是很簡單的問題; 但引起很多爭議呢.

Apple

葉子~(ming858585) 於 2009-12-24 18:05 回覆:

我知道你最喜歡智力測驗了。

你那些問題也很難答。