AIT理事主席薄瑞光在夏威夷發表對馬英九當選後兩岸關係之看法

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2008年4月29日,素俱聲望的國際策略研究中心太平洋論壇(Pacific Forum CSIS : Center for Strategic and International Studies),由該中心主席Ralph A.Cossa 邀請夏威夷東西文化中心主任,AIT理事主席薄瑞光和獨立專欄作家Richard Halloran,共同主持”馬英九勝選後兩岸關係論壇”.

這是ㄧ個由美國專家,在國民黨於立法院和總統選舉大勝後,對台灣政局和兩岸關係觀察的一個重要的立即觀察.該中心和夏威夷東西文化中心的意見,相信對美國政策當局,都會產生相當的影響.

夏威夷僑界關心台海政局者,也有多人與會,我和夏威夷東西文化中心董事陳烈進兄和幾位好友也都應邀參加,當天還包括經文處的王贊禹處長,特地從洛杉磯趕過來的洛杉磯經文處新聞秘書楊國添和光華出版社張國華董事長,以及夏威夷世界日報高振華記者.

他們三位論壇主持人,對馬英九勝選後即將展開的兩岸關係,都認為是樂觀的,薄瑞光主席更指出:兩岸直航是重要而且應該儘快實施,但是還需要兩岸努力共同化解十多年來的歧見,尤其更需要中國方面採取更彈性的步驟來和台灣往來.北京今後應該”不用危機管理而要多用機會管理.”

主持論壇的還有兩位該中心博士班學生,台灣來的陳香竹和大陸來的王珊珊,他們表達了年輕人對兩岸和平期望,認為政治不是他們主要關心事項,兩岸都能繁榮富強,年輕人都有機會發展,才是最大期盼.

Pacific Forum CSIS 並於會後發佈了新聞稿:

Pacific Forum CSIS News Release

China-Taiwan: Cause for Cautious Optimism

HONOLULU: The election of Ma Ying-jeou as the new president of Taiwan opens the door to a new and positive cross-Strait dynamic between Taipei and Beijing. That was the consensus view of experts and next generation analysts at a Taiwan Election Symposium, hosted by the Pacific Forum CSIS on April 29, 2008 in Honolulu. Unfortunately, the chances of a breakthrough are limited since “both sides are waiting for a positive gesture from the other to move forward,’’ explained Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS.

The symposium, sponsored by the Taiwan Economic and Cultural Office (TECO), examined the implications of Taiwan’s recent presidential and parliamentary elections. Ma’s landslide victory and an even more lopsided victory by his KMT (Nationalist Party) candidate in the earlier Legislative Yuan elections allow the Nationalists to dominate both branches of government in Taipei and herald the return of conservative government in Taiwan for the first time in nearly a decade.

“After May 20 – Ma’s inauguration – we enter a period in which we will have the right to have some optimism,” said Ambassador Raymond Burghardt, director of seminars at the East-West Center. “There is an opportunity to reduce tensions across the Taiwan Strait,” he added. “But stability will require engagement, and we haven’t had a lot of that over the last 10 years.” Success will depend on China’s decision to take a more flexible and imaginative approach to Taiwan, said Burghardt. “Beijing must go from crisis management to opportunity management.”

Pacific Forum Adjunct Fellow Richard Halloran, a freelance journalist and longtime Asia watcher, warned against inflated expectations. He cautioned that “there are opportunities, but there remain profound differences between the two. The fundamentals really haven’t changed.” Halloran agreed with the other speakers that the primary responsibility for moving the cross-Strait relationship forward lies with Beijing.

The biggest problem, argued Cossa, is that China knows how to deal with an unfriendly government in Taipei, but a friendly government forces it to adopt an entirely new mindset. “I’m not sure Beijing knows how to handle this situation.” While Burghardt shared that view, he also noted that the Chinese government and its Taiwan watchers have been thinking through key issues and understand the dilemmas they face. “The most challenging issue for Beijing,” concluded Cossa, “is how to show respect for Taiwan without making reunification less likely.”

Two other panelists – Shiuan-ju Chen of Taiwan and Shanshan Wang of China – suggested in their comments that finding a modus vivendi might not be too difficult. The two women, both Vasey Fellows at the Pacific Forum CSIS, provided a next-generation perspective on the election and cross-Strait relations. Chen explained that Taiwanese her age viewed the election through an economic prism: they want a government that offers them economic opportunities and will rebuild confidence between Taipei and the rest of the world. Young Taiwanese, said Chen, want recognition of Taiwan’s achievements, but they are above all pragmatic.

Wang noted that mainlanders watched Taiwan’s elections with interest and were taken with Ma, a telegenic and articulate politician. She called the elections “an invigorating phenomenon,” and noted that younger folks on the mainland see Taiwan’s politics as a sign of possible opportunities. Wang also urged the two sides of the Strait to open more channels of communication so that they could better understand each other and move beyond the misperceptions that color cross-strait relations, a suggestion approved by all on the podium, who urged officials on both sides of the strait to seize this opportunity to establish better relations between Taiwan and the PRC.