If a trade war between the United States and China, who will be subject to more harm?

10-16-12 China bashing may be beneficial for either presidential candidate in the U.S. presidential election yet it will not be a good policy. It will harm the United States more than China. It comes down to the trade war between world’s two economic superpowers. We, Americans, will lose. We, Americans, underestimate Chinese will-powers and overestimate our economic power. American politicians may not be aware of how quick those Chinese consumers adapt themselves to new environments if there is a trade war between US and China.

抨擊中國可能有利於總統候選人在美國總統大選中，但它不會是一個很好的政策。這會危害美國超過中國。涉及了世界上兩個經濟超級大國之間的貿易戰。美國將輸。美國低估中國人的意志力和過高估美國的經濟實力。美國的政客們可能不知道這些中國消費者如何快速適應新的環境，如果有一個美國和中國之間的貿易戰爭。

Mr. Romney claimed that he will issue an executive order to declare China currency manipulation. Now, if appreciate RMB will boot US economic recovery and reduce our unemployment rate? It is no guarantee the US unemployment rate will drop if China revalues the RMB as most manufacturers, especially makers of labor-intensive products will never come back. They would and will make their products any country that can provide lower labor costs. As I stated previously, the best resources of China are human resource. Chinese people work ten to twelve hours per day and almost seven days per week is very normal. My average hours worked is 13 hours per day and almost 7 days a week, only breaks which I take is Christmas and New Year.

羅姆尼聲稱，他將發出行政命令，宣布中國是貨幣操縱。如果升值人民幣將是否會引導美國經濟復甦和減少我們的失業率？它不能保證美國的失業率將下降，如果中國重估人民幣，大多數的製造商，特別是勞動力密集型產品的製造商再也不會回來了。他們會使他們的產品產任何一個國家，可以提供較低的勞動力成本。正如我提到過，中國最好的資源是人力資源。中國人每天工作十到十二個小時，每星期近七天，是非常正常的。我平均工作時間是13小時，平均每週近7天，唯一休息是聖誕節和新年。

Perhaps, Mr. Romney should have a good economic adviser. A stronger Yuan will not be some magic panacea for America. Yes, appreciate Chinese currency will help few our manufacturers that compete directly with Chinese firms yet it will hurt many others, such as manufacturers who use Chinese imports in their US production processes and also American consumers buying Chinese products. “RMB had appreciated 21% to the dollar from July 2005 to July 2008 on U.S.-China trade flows. On the one hand, during this period U.S. imports from China increased by 39%, and trade deficit with China still rose by 30.1%.” It seems to me that exchange rates are not the only factor affecting trade imbalance. There are not easy solutions to America’s economic problems as we continually live well beyond our means.

 也許，先生，羅姆尼應該有一個良好的經濟顧問。人民幣走強不會是美國的一些神奇的靈丹妙藥。是的，中國貨幣升值將有助於一些我們的製造商與中國企業直接競爭，但它會傷害許多人，如使用中國進口的美國生產過程並且還美國消費者購買中國產品的製造商。“人民幣升值21％，美元的匯率從2005年7月至2008年7月在美國與中國的貿易流量。在另一方面，在此期間，美國從中國的進口增加了39％，與中國的貿易赤字仍然上升了30.1％。“在我看來，匯率並不是唯一的因素影響貿易不平衡問題。有沒有簡單的解決方案，美國的經濟問題，因為我們生活不斷地遠遠超出了我們的能力。

  Jennie PC Chiang/江佩珍10/19