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| 2019/01/01 22:20:04瀏覽159｜回應0｜推薦4 | |
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#美台兩位前掌櫃警示未來一年(2019)的金融情況。
#劉泰英 警告，中國看來經濟動能很大，一片欣欣向榮，但骨子裡，地方財政債務過高還不出來，可能拖垮中央財政，連帶有可能讓台商錢匯不回來，引發進一步的金融危機。
而美國 #前聯準會主席葛林斯潘則警告，投資者應該為最壞的情況做準備，華爾街歌舞昇平的日子已經結束。毒性資產，加上高通膨，高失業的長期經濟停滯。毒性資產會是什麼？不知道。
我跟那個購物狂的異想世界的主人翁有點像，不懂的人竟然像在寫商業專欄一般，實在有點好笑。但世局好像有點明顯，安全帶繫好安全上路。
劉泰英的評論
葛林斯潘的評論
經濟學人30年前的預測 http://blog.udn.com/19f15e5b/122886836
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第一篇文章
資金緊俏！劉泰英示警：陸恐掀金融風暴
【大紀元訊】全球經濟成長腳步放緩，台綜院創辦人劉泰英示警，明年很大的不確定因素，在中國，他指出中國的財政、金融情況嚴峻，面臨資金緊俏，如果沒有妥善處理，可能掀起金融風暴。
台綜院創辦人劉泰英：「大陸財政金融情況非常嚴峻，如果它沒好好處理，就可能引起金融風暴」
台灣綜合研究院創辦人劉泰英認為，如果有金融風暴發生，引爆點就是在中國，他分析，中國屬於「貿易出超國」，按理來說資金豐沛，但如今卻面臨資金緊俏，主因在於地方政府債務過高。
台綜院創辦人劉泰英：「過去共產黨的思想，老是以為國家銀行的存款是國家的錢，各級政府都向銀行拿了很多錢，大部分拿了都沒辦法還，所以這個為什麼它的資金，會這麼緊。」
資金緊俏就連台商資金匯出也受阻，財政影響到金融，中共當局加強力度管制外匯，但一旦發生擠兌潮，恐將掀起金融風暴。
台綜院創辦人劉泰英：「如果大家民眾都要提款擠爆怎麼辦，金融風暴就進來了。經濟已經走向自由，但是它財政金融還是共產式的管理，這裡面發生矛盾，非常危險。」
一旦引發金融風暴，劉泰英表示，台灣也將受到影響，不只房市股市都會受挫，甚至台股可能跌到6000點。
劉泰英的評論
第二篇文章 葛林斯潘：投資者應該為最壞的情況做準備 Donna Borak，CNN Business 更新2253 GMT（0653 HKT）2018年12月18日
華盛頓（CNN） - 葛林斯潘表示，華爾街歌舞昇平的日子已經結束。
這位美國前聯準會主席，在二十多年前就發出有名的警告，股票市場『非理性繁榮』，不認為股價會比現有價格更高。
葛林斯潘受訪時表示：「看到情況有點像穩定後飆升，讓人感到很驚訝。」
他補充說，市場仍可能進一步上漲，但警告投資者市場修正可能慘痛：「那個跑路到最終，要尋求掩護。」
市場在過去幾周步履蹣跚，驚慌的投資者紛紛拋出來自白宮的混淆訊息，關於中美貿易談判的現況，擔心全球經濟的遲滯。
美國聯準會利率制定委員會，準備在周二和周三會面而來的緊張情緒。他們準備在今年第四次升息，雖然投資者也在為2019年的計劃梳理出蛛絲馬跡。聯準會11月份的會議紀錄顯示出，決策者在新的一年將採取更靈活的方式，這增加投資者的焦慮。
週一，標準普爾500指數收盤於2017年10月以來創新低，道瓊指數在當天一度跌幅超過600點。
「波動性是我們說話，思考與感受的功能性，而且變幻莫測，」他說。「除非你能徹底改變人性，以及回應的方式，否則永遠會是這樣，也一直是這樣。你必須依靠這一套方式，如果你要了解市場運作的方式。」
最近幾週，川普總統一再針對現任聯準會主席鮑威爾，他是川普親點的前任投資銀行家。總統本人密切在觀察市場，也自己的總統職位押寶在經濟狀況，指責鮑威爾讓經濟遲緩，意圖削弱他總統任職的政治優勢。
他指責聯準會10月份的市場潰敗，稱為『失控』，並暗示鮑威爾似乎以升高利息為樂。他稍後甚至指稱聯準會『問題比中國更大』，指中美貿易之戰。
一位白宮官員表示，川普私下對市場蠻擔憂，即使他公開都說經濟很強。在周二市場開盤前，川普還發另一則推特警告聯準會官員放慢升息計劃，並鼓勵決策者讀一下華爾街日報的評論，「在犯下另一個錯誤之前」。
川普推特說：「不要讓已經很流動的市場變得更流動。」「不要用50B。感受一下真實的市場，不要玩字面上的數字遊戲。祝好運！」
這是川普連續發文的第二篇，針對聯準會即將召開的會議。週一，川普發推特說這真『令人難以置信』，聯準會準備提高利息，儘管通膨低以及美元強勢。
但葛林斯潘，史上任職最久的聯準會主席，從最早雷根總統任命開始，到小布希，說市場波動中最主要的驅策因素，『實際的長期利率的明顯上升』。
這位前任主席還警告說，美國會有個停滯期，毒性混和，連帶經濟受到高通貨膨脹，以及高失業率的影響時。這個國家上次經歷這樣的情節是在1970跟1980s。
葛林斯潘說：「會持續多久，範圍多大，現在看還太早。」「當我們掌握到時，就會知道。」
批評者，包括很多經濟學家，指責前聯準會主席，2008年的金融危機，因為利率長期過低，以及未能控制住爆炸式成長的詐欺性抵押貸款，所造成的房價泡沫。
「槓桿操作對市場來說都是災難，我們試圖避免，但每次都失敗，」葛林斯潘說，他澄清說危機可能來自有毒資產所引發的。
「總是有有毒資產，你就是不知道，哪些是可行的。現在......很難說哪些是有毒資產。」
其他經濟學家，對現在要提高利率所產生的風險表示擔憂，甚至包括總統在修理他決策小組的印象，他們獨立於政治的壓力，想要向市場保證他們的決定完全不受政治影響。
「我在一個特殊的立場思考聯準會不應該提升利率，但也不要聽總統的；這讓事情很棘手。」諾貝爾得獎經濟學家保羅克魯格曼，週一在CNN的節目上表示，「我認為這是很好的狀況，聯準會不應該升息，但會議中決定不升息又會好像被霸凌。」
不過，葛林斯潘駁斥聯準會屈服於總統的施壓。
「我看不到任何證據，」葛林斯潘說，他任職期間會拼命戴著『耳塞』。並補充說他從未想起曾有人要他加息。
「我們傾聽，有時尊重地傾聽，有時就不，」他說。「但是否因而改變政策？不會。」 更正：這則報導早先的版本曾錯誤引用保羅克魯格曼關於Quest Means Business的評論。
Alan Greenspan: Investors should prepare for the worst Donna Borak, CNN Business Updated 2253 GMT (0653 HKT) December 18, 2018
Washington (CNN Business) — Alan Greenspan says the partys over on Wall Street.
The former Federal Reserve chairman who famously warned more than two decades ago about "irrational exuberance" in the stock market doesnt see equity prices going any higher than they are now.
"It would be very surprising to see it sort of stabilize here, and then take off," Greenspan said in an interview with CNN anchor Julia Chatterley.
He added that markets could still go up further — but warned investors that the correction would be painful: "At the end of that run, run for cover."
Markets have staggered in recent weeks, with spooked investors selling over mixed messages coming from the White House concerning the status of trade negotiations with China and growing fears of a global economic slowdown.
The jitters come as the Federal Reserves interest-rate setting committee prepares to meet Tuesday and Wednesday. Theyre expected to raise rates for the fourth time this year — though investors will also be combing for clues on their plans for 2019. Minutes from the Feds last meeting in November signaled policymakers want to take a more flexible approach next year adding to investor anxiety.
On Monday, the S&P 500 closed the trading day at its lowest level since October 2017, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 600 points at one point in the day.
"The volatility is a function of how we speak, think and feel — and its variable," he said. "Unless you can somehow radically change human nature and how we respond, this is what youll always get and have been getting. You have to count on it, if youre going to understand how the market functions."
President Donald Trump has in recent weeks taken repeated aim at current Fed chairman Jerome Powell, a former investment banker appointed last year by Trump himself. The President, a close market-watcher who has staked his presidency on the state of the economy, has accused Powell of trying to undercut him politically by slowing the economy down.
He blamed the Fed for the market rout in October, calling the Fed "out of control" and suggesting Powell seemed to enjoy raising rates. He also later called the Fed a "much bigger problem than China," referring to a trade war between the two countries.
One White House official said that Trump continues to privately express anxiety about the markets, even as he publicly insists the economy is strong. Before markets opened on Tuesday, Trump tweeted yet another fresh warning to Fed officials to slow down their rate hike plans, while encouraging policy makers to read a Wall Street Journal editorial "before they make another mistake."
"Dont let the market become any more illiquid than it already is," Trump tweeted. "Stop with the 50 Bs. Feel the market, dont just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!"
It was the second day in a row Trump tweeted on the Feds upcoming meeting. On Monday, Trump tweeted it was "incredible" that the Fed was considering a rate hike despite low inflation and a strong dollar.
But Greenspan, who was first appointed to the Fed by President Ronald Reagan and became the longest-serving chairman, remaining in his role into the George W. Bush administration, said a key driving factor in the markets volatility has been the "pronounced rise in real long-term interest rates."
The former chairman also warned that the United States may be poised for a period of stagflation, "a toxic mix" when the economy suffers from high inflation and high unemployment. The last time the country experienced such an episode was in the 1970s and early 1980s.
"How long it lasts or how big it gets, its too soon to tell," said Greenspan. "Well know it when we get on top of it."
Critics, including many economists, now blame the former Fed chairman for the 2008 financial crisis for having encouraged the bubble in housing prices by keeping interest rates too low for too long and for failing to rein in explosive growth of risky and other fraudulent mortgage lending.
"Leverage is a disaster for markets -- and we try to avoid it, but we fail every time," said Greenspan, who clarified that a crisis can be triggered by an asset that is toxic.
"There are always toxic assets, you just never know, which ones are viable. Right now... its hard to tell what the toxic asset is."
Other economists, however, have expressed concerns about the risk of raising rates now, even at the risk of creating the impression that the President had cowed his own policymakers — whose independence from political pressure is intended to reassure markets that their decisions are free of political concerns.
"Im in the peculiar position of thinking the Fed should not raise rates, but it should not listen to the President, which is a hard position," Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said Monday on CNNs Quest Means Business. "Theres a pretty good case for not raising rates now. But to not raise rates in this meeting would look like theyre allowing themselves to be bullied."
Greenspan, however, dismissed the idea that the Fed might cave to political pressure by the President.
"Ive seen no evidence of that," said Greenspan, who said during his tenure he figuratively wore "ear muffs myself." Adding he never recalled a time when someone had wished he had raised rates.
"We listen — sometimes respectfully, sometimes not," he said. "But do we change policy? No."
Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly quoted Paul Krugmans comments on Quest Means Business.
CNNs Kevin Liptak contributed to this story.
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