這篇是 2020年1月25日 經濟學者雜誌推測，如果新冠肺炎（武漢肺炎）傳至中國以外並有案例激增，是否有所應對。除了亞洲為主的六國有600個例子，17個死亡案例，這個作者於兩個月後的今天看來，是過度自信認為西方各國的「生活方式」異於中國和水稻文化的和家禽家畜密集者。

當時是基於對新冠肺炎的病毒傳播途徑而推論，當時僅認為是人和動物傳播而已，應該沒有人傳人情事。而今天已知其病毒RNA序列與SARS及MERS為同一家族，而蛋白質卻偏向愛滋病毒的（所以泰國那位全球第一個被治癒出院的患者，是使用雞尾酒療法），所以筆者覺得是人造病毒。

筆者和北京在一月第一週曾經問過是否要將病源體視為伊波拉病毒，視為當作武漢要變成西非政經狀態，有重大疾病爆發，因此國家健康委員會很快從美國引進瑞德西韋Remdesivir（原用於抑制RNA合成酶，近日日本的的流感藥物法批拉韋Favipiravir也有類似作用機制）。

西方人沒有戴口罩的生活習慣，甚至奧地利有反蒙面法，且接觸傳染為傳播途徑之一，今天美國和義大利也大爆發到如此幾近崩潰，又陸續有國際政要確診，除了趕快研發藥物疫苗，和消極鎖了一大串門，而「反舔共」又被譏成新一波的國際流行病，人生的觀念也許悄悄改變了經濟結構、人權公民自由的觀念。接著幾篇會貼出這幾週的選文。

Out of China
The world is better prepared than ever to stop the Wuhan coronavirus

But its true dangers will not be known for some time

Leaders

Jan 25th 2020

Editor’s note (January 23rd): This article has been updated to mention new cases of the virus and restrictions in Wuhan.

HOW AND when it infected the first human being, by making the jump from an animal, is anybody’s guess. But one thing is certain about the new coronavirus which was discovered in December in China and is now causing a global scare: it is a known unknown. And this, along with the health authorities’ response so far, is mostly good news.

People’s fear is understandable. As The Economist went to press, over 600 cases had been confirmed in six countries, of which 17 were fatal. The new virus is a close relative of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), which emerged in China in 2002 and terrorised the world for over half a year before burning out. SARS afflicted more than 8,000 people and killed about 800, leaving in its wake $30bn-100bn of damage from disrupted trade and travel (see China section).

That toll would have been lower if the Chinese authorities had not hushed up the outbreak for months. But things are very different this time. The Chinese have been forthcoming and swift to act. Doctors in Wuhan, the metropolis where it began, have come in for criticism, but the signs are that they promptly sounded an alarm about an unusual cluster of cases of pneumonia—thereby following a standard protocol for spotting new viruses. Chinese scientists quickly isolated the pathogen and shared its genomic details with the world. Back in the days of SARS, genetic sequencing like this took weeks. The genomic data can help scientists spot cases quickly, both in China and abroad. The government stopped travel in and out of Wuhan and two nearby cities, coralling almost 20m people. That is extreme and heavy-handed. Yet, although it could drive some cases underground, it will also slow the spread of the virus across China and abroad.

Even so, an awful lot rests on some of the known unknowns. The two big questions are how easily the virus can be passed directly from person to person and just how dangerous it is. Data from monitoring people who have had contact with those infected will soon help answer the first question. The second will be harder. The 3% mortality rate among cases confirmed so far is alarming, for it is like that of the Spanish influenza pandemic in 1918, which killed 3-5% of the world’s population. But in many people the new virus causes only mild symptoms, so many cases may not have been recognised for what they are and hence not added to the total. As more such people are identified through expanded screening, the estimated death rate should fall. Conversely, though, that rate could go up as more of those infected become seriously ill—a progression that takes about a week and is seen in 15-20% of patients in hospitals.

The true character of the new virus will become better known in the coming weeks. Public-health measures will adjust accordingly, using lessons learned from SARS and MERS, a still-deadlier cousin discovered in 2012 in Saudi Arabia that spreads only through close contact.

The WHO has long worried about the possible emergence of a “disease X” that could become a serious international pandemic and which has no known counter-measures. Some experts say the virus found in China could be a threat of this kind. And there will be many others. Further illnesses will follow the same well-trodden path, by mutating from bugs that live in animals into ones that can infect people. Better vigilance in places where humans and animals mingle, as they do in markets across Asia, would help catch viral newcomers early. A tougher task is dissuading people from eating wild animals and convincing them to handle livestock with care, using masks and gloves when butchering meat and fish, for example. Such measures might have prevented the new coronavirus from ever making headlines. ■

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "The world is better prepared than ever to stop the Wuhan coronavirus