原文網址：http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1758128359&Country=Taiwan&topic=Politics

June 18th 2019

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All eyes on Tsai

The victory of the incumbent, Tsai Ing-wen, in the presidential nomination primary of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has put her firmly back in the running for the 2020 poll. However, we expect the race to be tight owing to our forecast that Han Kuo-yu, the sitting mayor of Kaohsiung, will represent the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party in the presidential contest. Mr Hans strength lies largely in his position as a quasi-outsider, less constrained by traditional party politics. We believe that Ms Tsai will win but the margin will be slim, and so the risks to this forecast remain high.

The results of the local "nine-in-one" elections held in November 2018 put the DPP, and Ms Tsai in particular, on the back foot. The KMT took the majority of municipal and mayoral constituencies, wresting control of several key DPP-held areas across the country, in a clear rebuke to the ruling party. This was likely the catalyst for the then-premier, William Lai Ching-te, to challenge Ms Tsai for the DPP presidential nomination. Her low approval ratings and the local election results were enough to prompt internal divisions to emerge within the party, undoing her past efforts at strengthening party cohesion. Persistently low satisfaction ratings for the president going into early 2019 set the stage for a credible campaign by Mr Lai to wrestle the nomination from the sitting president.

Back together again

The results of the primary, announced on June 13th, showed that Ms Tsai beat Mr Lai in all five DPP-commissioned public opinion polls. These were conducted via calls to resident landline and mobile phones from June 10th to 12th. A scenario for each of the two DPP candidates were given to respondents, who were asked to choose between the respective DPP runners and Han Kuo-yu (the likely KMT nominee), Ko Wen-je (the mayor of Taipei and an independent, who may still enter the race), or no candidate. An average of the five polls shows that Ms Tsai received 35.7% of the respondents votes, against 27.5% for Mr Lai.

This clear win for Ms Tsai will dampen disunity within the party. Indeed, at a press conference following the announcement of his defeat, Mr Lai emphasised the need for the party to unite behind Ms Tsai. This and other ostensible efforts to stem the breakdown of party cohesion will help to project a sense of recovery to the electorate.

Moreover, this leadership challenge has strengthened Ms Tsais campaign prematurely, by forcing her to promote her achievements and governing strategy. Her efforts in the primary lead-up highlighted a previously underlying narrative of a technocrat focused on substantive long-term goals, rather than easily publicised—but potentially superficial—short-term achievements. Indeed, in a televised debate between the two candidates on June 8th, Ms Tsai compared her presidency to building a house: she claimed that she needed another term to construct the "house" upon the foundations that she had laid in her first four years. Her credibility was further bolstered by the fact that Mr Lai offered a very similar portfolio of policies during the debate, reinforcing the strength of her platform regardless of her style of governance.

Stiff opposition

With Ms Tsais standing among DPP supporters boosted from her successful battle for the nomination, she can now prepare for the presidential election campaign with renewed confidence. However, a presidential win will be no easy task, regardless of her recent comeback. This will be owing to the strength of the KMT nomination that she will face. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects that, of the five current presidential hopefuls on the KMT side, Han Kuo-yu will win the nomination in the oppositions primary in late July. We believe that Mr Hans experience in government and his talent for grandstanding will help him to edge out the chairman of Foxconn and political outsider, Terry Gou, in the public opinion polls that form the basis of the KMTs candidate selection process.

Much of Mr Hans popularity lies in his public efforts to distance himself from party politics, despite his past experience as a KMT politician. This gives him the opportunity to draw support from voters disillusioned by the perceived ideological and institutional rigidity of the KMT, as well as that of the DPP—while still pandering to institutional KMT supporters.

Indeed, Mr Han has emphasised a pragmatic stance that is grounded by a pro-business focus, but still unrestrained by the legacy issues and ideology of his party. In his campaign for mayor of Kaohsiung, he ran on the slogan "100 percent economy and zero percent politics". In addition, at a rally on June 15th, Mr Han aggressively rejected the idea of Taiwan coming under "one country, two systems" rule by China. These and similar actions are in part efforts to persuade the electorate that he will not be swung by partisan politics, including deference to the mainland—usually a go-to reassurance of the DPP.

A tight race until the last

Nonetheless, we remain committed to our current view that the DPP will hold on to the presidency next year. A public survey by TVBS, a Taiwanese commercial broadcaster, showed that approval ratings for Ms Tsai had risen to 36% in mid‑May, up from 23% in January and 15% in November 2018. This rebound in popularity has put her firmly back in the race.

Apple Daily (Taiwan), a local newspaper, published the results of a poll on voter preference on June 8th‑9th, prior to the DPP primary result. It showed Ms Tsai with 30%, Mr Han with 30.4%, Mr Ko with 27.6% and 12% of respondents opting for none of the above. Although this suggests that she is trailing Mr Han, we would assume some deferral of support to Ms Tsai from staunch supporters of Mr Lai (some of whom would have chosen Mr Ko or no candidate in the survey rather than Ms Tsai) following his loss in the DPP primary. We are also assuming that Mr Ko will not run, which would give a bigger boost to the DPP, to which the Taipei mayor is more closely aligned than the KMT.

Developments related to relations across the Taiwan Strait will also boost Ms Tsais prospects. The large demonstrations against the controversial proposed extradition law in Hong Kong in June are likely to linger in the minds of Taiwanese voters come January 2020. The Hong Kong protests were well-publicised in Taiwanese media, and several thousand people demonstrated in the capital, Taipei, on June 16th in solidarity with Hong Kong. This was partly owing to the Taiwan-related basis for the Hong Kong governments proposed amendments.

Tensions between Hong Kong and the mainland have also taken on greater significance in Taiwan following the proposal in early 2019 by Chinas president, Xi Jinping, of "one country, two systems" for Taiwan. This even drew an official rebuttal from the KMT. This will invigorate some flailing DPP supporters and may dissuade some swing voters from opting for the traditionally more China-friendly KMT. Despite Mr Hans recent statements explicitly rejecting political integration with China, he may struggle to sustain an image of steadfast resistance to the mainlands reunification efforts, particularly in the light of his previous closed-door meetings with mainland officials.

Our forecast for Ms Tsai to win the presidency again in 2020 is nevertheless prone to high risks, and we expect her lead over Mr Han in the 2020 poll to be very slim. Moreover, her advantage could easily be put in jeopardy should Mr Han perform more strongly than we expect in the KMT primary debates in the coming weeks, as well as in the presidential contender debates in late 2019. Mr Han has yet to face either Ms Tsai or his KMT rivals directly on a national stage. An even greater upset would be the entry of Mr Ko to the race as an independent. In this scenario, we would expect Mr Han (or even Mr Gou, were he to secure the nomination) to win the presidency, as Mr Ko would split the DPP vote. This remains outside our core forecast, however, as we believe that recent opinion polls showing a relatively strong performance by the KMT candidates will dissuade Mr Ko from running.