Japans election

Shinzo Abes sumo-sized win

Dec 16th 2012, 19:02 by H.T. | TOKYO

A FORMER prime minister, who resigned in 2007 after a shambolic first year in office, and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which two years later was hounded out of the governing role that it had taken as its birthright, are both headed for a remarkable return to power. In the hours after midnight it became clear that an LDP-led coalition was going to secure a two-thirds majority in the lower house of parliament. Shinzo Abe will be back at the head of government.

In a crushing defeat for the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), NHK, the national broadcaster, reported results showing the LDP had easily secured a majority in the lower-house election, a position it had held for more than half a century until 2009. With its coalition partner, New Komeito, it will control a two-thirds super-majority in the 480-seat house. This will give it the ability to override the upper house, in which the DPJ remains the largest party. Sunday night results showed that the LDP had won at least 293 seats, and New Komeito at least 30 seats.

An NHK exit poll said the DPJ was expected to win no more than 77 seats, which would represent a collapse in support, compared with the 308-seat landslide it won in 2009. Its leader, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, announced that he would step down as head of the party as a result of the defeat.

The first post-midnight count showed that the DPJ, with at least 53 seats, was only doing marginally better than a newly formed party, the conservative Japan Restoration Party (JRP) founded by Osaka’s mayor, Toru Hashimoto. It had won at least 50 seats, NHK said. That makes it the biggest of the so-called “third-pole” parties that have arisen to challenge the two main parties in this election. But it will not be as powerful a force as some had expected when Mr Hashimoto launched it this year.

The victory for Mr Abe’s coalition represents yet another hard-to-fathom swing in Japan’s weathervane-like politics. Three years ago many heralded what looked like the end of an era when the LDP, which had held power almost constantly from 1955-2009, suffered a huge loss that left it with just 113 seats.

Its fall from grace had started in 2006 when it picked the conservative Mr Abe as prime minister. He spent a disastrous year in office, first winning over and then alienating prickly neighbours China and South Korea, and turning off voters with his obsessive patriotism at home and hawkishness abroad. When he left office in 2007, he was hospitalised with a stress-related illness.

To the surprise of even members of his own party, he was brought back from relative obscurity this autumn to head the LDP. Analysts say the resurrection of his party’s electoral fortunes can hardly be credited to him: it stems more from a backlash against the DPJ, which has shown itself to be weak and divided in office, running through three prime ministers, numerous defections and repeated reversals of its promises and policies.

In fact the LDP appears to have changed little during its time in opposition. Under Mr Abe, it may be even more dependent on its old guard than it was in 2009. But voters were so disenchanted with the DPJ, they held their noses and voted for the LDP anyway.

Mr Abe appeals to the party’s most conservative wing, who value his assertive stance towards China over a cluster of disputed islets called the Senkaku islands in Japan and the Diaoyu in China. He has spoken of reviving the massive public-works projects which were a hallmark of the old LDP. But in his first comments after his victory, Mr Abe said his priority would be beating deflation, and he also vowed to continue with a plan to raise the consumption tax. Stockmarkets have responded well to his promise to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to do more to end deflation, perhaps by setting a fixed inflation target.

One of the LDP’s campaign goals is to revise parts of the country’s war-renouncing constitution, which could enrage China and South Korea who still (as part of their own nationalism narratives) consider Japan an aggressor as a result of its wartime past. However, until upper-house elections in July, some analysts expect Mr Abe to tread gently and keep international provocations to a minimum—in the hope that voters will give the LDP a majority there, too. If it does plan to revise the constitution, said some LDP officials speaking shortly after the vote, the party may reach out to the JRP, which shares a similar goal and is led by Shintaro Ishihara, ex-governor of Tokyo and an arch-hawk and China-baiter.

As for Mr Noda, the outgoing prime minister, his party must be ruing his unexpected decision in mid-November to dissolve parliament. When he did so, Mr Noda had hoped the DPJ, if it didn’t win the lower-house election, would remain a credible force in the upper house and might be in position to benefit from another voter swing next summer. To judge by today’s projected results however, Mr Abe will have to perform remarkably badly indeed for that to happen.

(Picture credit: AFP)

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DPJ, RIP?

Dec 19th 2012, 10:30

“Guma -jin-rai-tte”, for a hero like ancient Chinese “the recovery of Shao-kang in Shia dynasty” to say the mainstream of constituency, falls to Shinzo Abe with LDP’s landslide victory in this time’s election. The tall body with his wife, Akie Abe who is a fan of Korean drama, always impress Japanese. I still remember Time Magazine’s report and photographs with this couple’s raising hands in 2006’s September while he succeeded then prime minister Koizumi Junichiro. Since then, Japan’s politics goes worse.

Eliminating the unpleasant from the crisis of separation in 2010’s March, LDP returns to the power after being 3-year opposition party. Then richest-ever prime minister, Taro Aso famous for Asian foreign policy, is inclined to be appointed as Abe’s deputy, putting Yoshihiko Noda and Naoto Kan (lost in Tokyo’s 16th block) to serious shame. Also, all candidates from New Komito wins all the block, horrifying Japanese political arena. New Komito, whose present fortunate like the re-election in 2005’s September with Koizumi, will cooperate with LDP forming a coalition in Shinzo Abe’s cabinet.

According to Nikkei newspaper, clan politics recovers in Japan while 76% “loyal prestige” candidates win the election, especially in LDP (86 of 88). With “one and half” party politics coming back, the gossip and complex of pipeline, flourishing during Koizumi’s glorious dynasty, may be focused once again among political figures, entertainers, entrepreneurs and journalists. The old routine such as “like father, like son” sees a renaissance in the near future.

In this election, DPJs number drop from 230 to less than 76 by NHK’s projection. During Yoshihiko Noda’s tenure, there is no politics practicing except for tax-rising and the pose of examining soldiers in Self Defense Force (SDF) for the preparation of Diaoyu concerned. Noda must be blamed for the wrong decision, or say, no decision; moreover, this clumsy Noda did worse than the worst one I have ever seen - prime minister Murayama Tomiichi. It’s shameless that Noda lost the political territory from Yukio Hatoyama.

These two headquarter who have Gastrointestinal problem and need ohta-isan (some stomach protector) face difficulties as soon as the jocund in the glory-enjoying. Although I needn’t see Koichiro Gemba and Noda’s show in front of me, the dispute over Diaoyu still remain. In addition to the territory dispute with South Korea and China, Abe urged Bank of Japan’s governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, to set 2% inflation goal from the previous 1% to excite the economy for achieving nominal GDP growth 3%. According to Financial Times, Abe put forward economic and monetary policy, foreign policy, energy, social security and education, answering the question of any problem during DPJ’s governing. From the postwar Japan’s history, the interior safety is constantly a key to ensuring the good-level politics.

Seeing some heroes or passengers in Japan since Koizumi’s governing, I admire their patience and the struggling spirit of politics. However, Japan recently suffered some frustration until Nikkei 225 index escalated into 8-months high - with Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501) soaring 17% as well as good share of Canon, Sharp and Softbank. Abe’s policy echoes in the share market, creating a good restart for LDP. Also, the support of youth electorate has good effect in this election. LDP who sometimes recites Confucius or Mentz’s Analect will try to realize Li-zhi’s “The Age of Great Harmony: the youth do beneficial.”. LDP’s welfare policy is more practical than DPJ’s.

If, Noda knows, the consequence is a unretrievable tragedy, maybe he just resigned and gave a seat to Katsuya Okada, the younger leader in DPJ so there is still 1-year game continuing. DPJ’s member criticized Noda too much to have him go in exile. “Alas... with time passing until today, really, there is not regrettable right at all to remember the beginning. But, really, I indeed love you so much. Absolutely, this sense cheats on no one. ” With Japan’s pop team EXILE’s song, Kan and Noda go exile in contrast of the past Hatoyama’s shock in the world, as the Economist’s this photo. Walking toward tomorrow, “I know, I know, I know...”, DPJ waned turning to a Hip-Hop or say they become resemblance to Ai Otsuka’s husband in RIP SLYME. Well, I continue to collect the present fashion, Ayumi Hamasaki’s five-unstoppable album for 15th anniversary, more goods after “again” and after “love” . Yeah, Nana Mizuki’s best sounds of Japan’s animation appeal to me. “Phantom Minds” says frank dialogues although there is common speaking between the two individuals. Then, “Yukou...”, no confusion appears surely after the miraculous we bumped into.

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Japans election

DPJ, RIP?

Dec 17th 2012, 14:13 by D.M. | TOKYO

NEVER known for hyperbole, Japans outgoing leader, Yoshihiko Noda, was characteristically understated last night as he digested his partys crumbling vote. "Its a very stern verdict," he admitted to the state broadcaster, NHK. In fact, the result in the lower house of the Diet, Japan’s parliament, is an outright disaster for the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). It lost two-thirds of its seats, leaving it only marginally stronger than the Restoration Party, a right-wing upstart that did not even exist till this year. No fewer than eight of the DPJ’s cabinet members lost seats, including the partys top spokesman and its finance minister, making theirs the highest-ranking electoral casualties since the second world war. 

Thats a vertiginous fall for a party that delivered a political volcano just three years ago (recall our cover, to the right), ejecting the Liberal Democratic Party from power for the first time (with one brief exception) since the time of the Eisenhower administration in America. The DPJ pledged to wrest control from Japans powerful bureaucracy, rein in wasteful spending on public works and redirect about 10% of the national budget towards building a social safety net, including a childrens allowance of roughly $250 per head, per family, which was intended to boost the nations plummeting birthrate. Party leaders said they would revolutionise the half-century-old alliance with America, closing foreign bases and ending Japans supine role in therelationship.

Japans electorate must have felt yesterday they were voting for—or against—a different party, this time round. Most of the DPJ’s left wing had already bolted, alienated by the party’s drift from its 2009 manifesto. Its prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, has made little progress taming the bureaucracy, now strongly supports the alliance with America and wants to cut welfare spending. He lost a great deal of support by backing the return of nuclear power after the disaster at Fukushima, and then more by working with the LDP to pass a controversial sales tax. His hapless predecessor-bu-one, Yukio Hatoyama, botched the partys big showdown with American and Japanese diplomats over the relocation of an American Marine Corps base in Okinawa prefecture. Many feel Mr Noda handled Japans bitter territorial dispute with China badly; this clearly drove some voters into the arms of the nationalist right.

It’s too early to say that the DPJ has flatlined—the party does, after all, still have 57 seats. But in some ways that bald figure understates the magnitude of Sunday’s collapse. The key architects of the party’s rise to power in 2009 have been humbled. A former prime minister, Naoto Kan, lost the race in his own constituency on Sunday (though he managed to keep a seat, due to proportional representation), his successor Yukio Hatoyama is retiring and Ichiro Ozawa, once the party’s biggest hitter, has been badly wounded by scandal and a relentless hounding from prosecutors and the popular media. Perhaps more importantly, after three years of infighting and flip-flopping, the DPJ are rudderless and adrift, lacking the policy glue that might hold them together through the coming political storm.

The LDP’s leader, Shinzo Abe, is then surely entitled to look smug: just three years ago Mr Ozawa and company thought they had driven a stake through the heart of his party. On closer examination, however, this LDP victory looks rather less impressive. The turnout for Sundays poll was the lowest since the 1996 general election, with 11m fewer voters turning out than in 2009. Underwhelmed by the stale political smorgasbord on offer, millions of young people simply never bothered. This favoured older, conservative voters, who typically vote for the LDP. Mr Abe won his election with less than 30% of the vote—a victory, but hardly a mandate.

It has been a clear swing to the right, but not for Mr Abe. The Restoration Party took 54 seats, a solid result but well below the 100+ that had been predicted by its architect, Toru Hashimoto. The conservative, pro-business Your Party won 18 seats. Mr Abe was candid in discussing the electoral verdict the day after, acknowledging that it was less a vote of trust in his party than an expression of despair at their predecessors. “Its [the voters’] answer to the past three years of political confusion,” he told NHK. “Now we have to show we have earned that victory.” Mr Abe promises to undo some of the damage: reviving the economy, repairing the alliance with America and rebuilding ties with China. His own party’s record in office offers little room for hope. Regardless of Mr Abe’s prospects for success, his once high-flying rivals face a very long climb back to power.

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