Politics in Japan

The unlikely Mr Noda

The prime minister has most foes on his own side

Jun 16th 2012 | TOKYO | from the print edition

UNLIKE Japan’s half-dozen recent prime ministers, many of whom were privileged offspring of earlier statesmen born for high office, Yoshihiko Noda last year came into the post unexpectedly. Despite that, and though his term may be no longer than theirs, Mr Noda is showing unexpected leadership. He may accomplish more than his recent predecessors combined.

His aim is to set an ageing, shrinking society back on course, after it was shaken by the disasters of last year. He is guided by the conviction that he must salvage the public finances, by doubling the consumption (sales) tax to 10%. The problem is that his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) promised, during the election campaign that led to it overturning five decades of rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 2009, not to raise taxes. Mr Noda is seen as a traitor by those who stand by the campaign promises.

Worse, Mr Noda has courted powerful bureaucrats and the LDP-led opposition that controls the upper house of the Diet (parliament). In other words, he governs as LDP prime ministers used to. People in both camps find that hard to take. But most in the LDP know that the public would treat their party with even greater disdain if it now opposed a tax it was the first to promote. Both camps also fear the maverick mayor of Osaka, Toru Hashimoto, who is contemplating the launch of a national anti-establishment movement. In effect, he is pushing the LDP into bed with Mr Noda.

The opposition and government now seem set to do a deal to raise the tax in stages in 2014 and 2015. Then, in a Diet session extended by perhaps a month, they will try to decide how to spend the ¥13.5 trillion ($175 billion) it will raise each year. Under LDP pressure, Mr Noda is also backtracking from the more unworkable campaign promises on pensions, child care and help for the poor.

The prime minister is also staking his reputation on a second belief, that Japan needs to restart some of its nuclear reactors to prevent the economy being crippled by energy shortages. (All 54 of them were shut down, at a time of high anti-nuclear feeling, following the Fukushima disaster.) Here, too, Mr Noda is co-operating with the LDP: an independent nuclear regulator is likely to be proposed soon. That will give him some cover to announce the restarting of the Oi nuclear plant in Fukui prefecture, which powers the Kansai industrial region of which Osaka is the heart.

But what happens after that? Mr Noda seems safe from internal opposition for the moment. His chief foe within the party is Ichiro Ozawa, who has cast a longer political shadow over the past two decades than anyone. But Mr Ozawa’s fortunes fell this week when it emerged that his wife had written to his closest supporters about his two mistresses and his illegitimate child but, more crucially, had berated her husband for taking months to visit the disaster-affected areas of Iwate, his home prefecture.

The public standing of the prime minister’s other foe, Mr Hashimoto, may have also peaked. The combative mayor is now having to make compromises that undermine his outsider status. He is backing away from a fervently anti-nuclear stance and he needs to mollify politicians in Tokyo to get their backing for sweeping administrative changes in Osaka. Local spending cuts are also harming his popularity.

Back in Tokyo, some members of the opposition think that they can do business right through till next summer with the best prime minister the LDP never had. In effect, a kind of “grand coalition”, long favoured by the elites but always rejected by voters, would be at work. Mr Noda may prefer to see his twin aims passed into law and then call a snap election. On current form, he would lose. But it is when Mr Noda seems to care least about his own survival—and perhaps his party’s—that he is most effective.

from the print edition | Asia

The unlikely Mr Noda

Jun 18th 2012, 06:57

Unlike the previous comments on the Economist, I think that the Economist has talked about the epitome although the authors few concerned Japanese ordinaries.

Prime minister Yoshihiko Noda decides to raise consumption tax to 10% from his takeover. His plan contains two steps of increasing tax for the policy of social welfare, which continues the former Yukio Hatoyama and Naoto Kan’s Fabianism of DPJ. But both, coach and ninja, never put forward any possibility of increasing source of finance from consumption. Besides, there has been a horrible competitor or a weirdly cunning fox, Ichiro Ozawa, standing by Noda.

On June 11th , NHK showed two kinds of figure to indicate the current Japanese thoughts. One was the approval rate of cabinet, just after the announcement of the restart of Ohi nuclear power plant. And another was the common thought of cabinet reshuffle on June 4th.

On one side, 27% of the overall support rate, which was 53% in the previous month, inferred that there is long distances between ordinaries and Noda. By comparison, 25% of respondents said they approved of his decision while 32% were against it with 38% indecision. On the other, of the 41% backing the reshuffle, 4% said they strongly support it. 37% said they do so to some degree. 36% mildly disapproved of the changes with 16% strongly disapproving. Although acceptable percentage says Noda passed the test of reshuffle but his behaviour doesn’t help change the deteriorating political arena.

For several times, Noda was questioned of his restructuring and tax plan with his fewer idea of practicing policy. In DPJ, Ozawa, whose faction is the largest one different from Kan and Noda, leads nearly half of congressmen against Noda and tries to get the seat of prime minister for several times. But Ozawa’s personality cannot persuade the whole Japan to elevate him to the utmost. In addition, Bunshun Weekly disclosed that Ozawa’s ex-wife, Kazuko, criticized him for his 8-year illegitimate child and less care to his electorate. In my angle to say, Ozawa can’t be the host of such seat because he once claimed that Taiwan should be a nation having strong friendship with Japan. Instead, if Noda should step down too quickly - resulting in his shorter term than almost of former prime minister after Koizumi Junichiro - Katsuyo Okada, the vice prime minister (and know the affair of Taiwan Strait better), may continue Noda’s work.

Japanese, in common, don’t like to see any reform which is pushed forward by increasing any tax. However, Managing Director David Lipton of International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last week that 15% consumption tax is the reasonable percentage of a set of tax and social security reform bills to sustain investor confidence. Lipton also referred to the recent trend of the strong yen and , in the mid-term view, the Japanese currency is somewhat over-valued. Given the escalation of Japans national bonds and government deficit, Noda’s plan on consumption tax intends to accord with the solution to current dilemma but cannot be fully carried out. The moderate tax reform still be re-evaluated and widely discussed in recent weeks, such as increasing by 7-8% - as I told DPJ several months ago. Well, the dilemma of Japan’s business, economy and politics continues to confuse all Japan - even if Doraemon appears. And if Noda spends more time, more than one month, being played by the embarrassing ice, Noda’s only politics grade is the shout to LDP’s former prime minister, from the mule of Koizumi Junichiro and his followings to Taro Aso, or he is just like a donkey and moreover Japanese entertainer Soldier Ueshima who successfully attack (kiss) Dart Man.

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忙了一陣子英語學習的討論，來回顧一下當時民調數據和理性經濟政策分析，哈哈還寫到上島奄兵的笑話。就是這日本政治當年遭遇的問題是執政黨還沒有解決當時的經濟困境，堅持以加稅方式來驅動經濟，又認為和美國談判TPP的時候，仍要協助防衛保護弱勢產業，廣泛引起民眾不信任。基本上漲到7-8%，而原來的公式筆者曾經和當年的執政黨DPJ稿論過，在通貨緊縮已有三年左右的前提下已經很撐了，又要作東日本大震後的復員及重建工作是很麻煩的，國際上吹起一波增稅並不能保證經濟前行的討論，因此若有要按慣例每兩年一次再宣佈改選應該會失敗。

那天的小插曲是小澤一郎的小三風波，還有一個未婚子。可見日媒已經浮動，正在到處挖日本的執政黨DPJ，即現在日本國民民主黨DPFP(Demoratic Party For the People)加上立憲民主黨CDPJ(The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan)，的瘡疤。雖然十月有作內閣調整，最後還是潰敗了退回在野陣營。從此這個黨派之後經過了四大臣，細野浩志、海江田萬里、岡田克也及枝野幸男的2013-14兩年內鬥期，及2014年11月安倍晉三因增稅爭議的三支箭力道減弱，解散國會問信於人民時，雖恢復了一些勢力但是並沒有挫到安倍的支持度。岡田克也主導改組的日本民主黨和大阪地方的維新黨組成民進黨，蓮舫接任後和日本老牌執政的自由民主黨約為三比七的態勢，蓮舫在東京都知事一役作主帥敗了之後，由前原誠司和大塚耕平主導2018年5月的國民民主黨成立，為國會第二大黨。但是主要的人物如蓮舫改頭立憲民主黨，現為第三大黨。在野的不穩定也呈現在石原慎太郎之後的東京首長更迭，如果要想有下一個非自民黨籍的眾議員擔任首相，就算有再多森田學園案，恐怕還有好幾個兩年才會吧。筆者那幾年透過NHK World 收看，連續兩位菅直人和野田的起身，和黨代表們點頭致意說是下一任首相的畫面的那之間，好像連續短短兩天，就交回給世代大名執政的日本自民黨了。回想起來野田的政治路，僅像上島的頭髮纏著有點俏皮樣的小泉純一郎親嘴啾的開心有名而已唉.....這只不過是美食冤大頭的射箭比賽中有老有少，有首席模特兒而又有中年孤鳥的悲喜組合世界而已。筆者到今年二月前一直很關注日本政壇的演進，而這在以後的貼文回顧時會再現一次這東瀛的滄桑與哀愁。

＊筆者回文並引用NHK World 英語版的報導，來說明政策面如何拖垮當時執政的DPJ的滿意度，數篇如下

IMF:Japan should raise consumption tax to 15%

The International Monetary Fund has pointed out that Japans top priority is the reconstruction of its finances and that consumption tax should be raised to at least 15 percent in the future.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton announced the funds annual report on Japanese policy issues at a news conference in Tokyo on Tuesday.

The report says it is crucial to enact a set of tax and social security reform bills to sustain investor confidence.

The reform bills now before parliament include a bill to raise the current 5 percent consumption tax to 10 percent in stages by October 2015.

Lipton said that Japan must tackle its deep-rooted fiscal problems. He said he supports the set of bills to be enacted.

Lipton also referred to the recent trend of the strong yen. He said in the mid-term view the Japanese currency is somewhat over-valued.

Jun. 12, 2012 - Updated 09:52 UTC (18:52 JST)

Cabinet support rate falls to 27%

An NHK poll shows the support rate for Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and his cabinet has fallen to the lowest level since his government was sworn in last September.

The weekend telephone survey contacted 1,642 people aged 20 or older across Japan. Sixty-six percent of them responded.

The overall support rate was 27 percent, down 2 percentage points from last month. The disapproval rate declined slightly to 51 percent. It was 53 percent in the previous month.

Of those who support the cabinet, 36 percent said they trust Nodas personality. Thirty-three percent said his cabinet seems better than those of other leaders.

Among people who disapprove, 47 percent said they dont expect much from the cabinets policies, while 27 percent said they dont think the cabinet can implement policies.

On Nodas decision to restart the Ohi nuclear power plant in Fukui Prefecture, 25 percent of respondents said they approve of his decision. Thirty-two percent are against it, and 38 percent are undecided.

Noda says that for the sake of the countrys economy and social stability, Japan needs to restart its nuclear plants once their safety is confirmed.

Thirty-one percent of respondents support Nodas argument, while 27 percent disagree. Thirty-seven percent are undecided.

Two of the four reactors at the Ohi nuclear plant will be the first to resume operations since all of Japans commercial reactors went offline earlier this year for safety inspections.

Jun. 11, 2012 - Updated 09:42 UTC (18:42 JST)

41% support Noda cabinet reshuffle

An NHK poll suggests 41 percent of Japanese people support Prime Minister Yoshihiko Nodas new cabinet. Noda reshuffled his team last week.

NHK conducted the telephone survey over the weekend. It contacted 1,642 people aged 20 or older across Japan. Sixty-six percent, or 1,079 people, responded.

Of the 41 percent backing the reshuffle, 4 percent said they strongly support it. 37 percent said they do so to some degree.

36 percent mildly disapproved of the changes. 16 percent strongly disapproved.

65 percent supported Nodas choice of Satoshi Morimoto, a non-politician and non-Diet member, as defense minister.

27 percent disapproved of the appointment.

The survey also asked about the prospect of nuclear power generation in 2030. 28 percent said they want Japan to give up nuclear energy.

16 percent said they believed Japan should generate about 15 percent of its electricity that way. 10 percent said they would support using nuclear power for up to a quarter of Japans energy needs. 33 percent said its not the right time to decide.

Nuclear energy accounted for nearly 30 percent of Japans total power generation before the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant last year.

Jun. 11, 2012 - Updated 16:58 UTC (01:58 JST)