Elections in Taiwan

Close brush for China

Jan 14th 2012, 18:09 by J.M. | TAIPEI

CHINA and America can breathe a sigh of relief. A closely fought presidential election in Taiwan has delivered a second four-year term to the China-friendly incumbent, Ma Ying-jeou. China had feared that his opponent, Tsai Ing-wen, would try to steer the island closer to formal independence. America professed neutrality, but clearly did not want to see tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait. To officials in Washington as well as Beijing, Mr Ma looked the less likely of the two to stir up trouble.

Mr Ma’s party, the Kuomintang (KMT), has also retained its control of the legislature. In parliamentary polls, held at the same time as the presidential ones, the KMT won 64 of the legislature’s 113 seats. Ms Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won 40. Mr Ma’s fortunes were boosted by the unexpectedly poor performance of a third candidate, James Soong of the People First Party. Mr Soong’s decision in November to join the race prompted fears in the KMT that it would lose some of its supporters to him. (His party split from the KMT in 2000.) “Jiu jiu jiu”, urged large characters on one election van in Taipei this week, meaning “Save, save Jeou”. In the end, Mr Soong took less than 3% of the vote. Mr Ma got nearly 52%, against less than 46% for Ms Tsai.

But the elections were not entirely good news for Mr Ma. In 2008 he won with 58% of the vote and his party secured 81 seats in the legislature. His popularity has been dented by the battering of the island’s export-dependent economy by the global slowdown. Many Taiwanese complain of a growing gap between rich and poor and increasingly unaffordable housing prices. Ms Tsai made considerable progress in restoring the unity and confidence of her party. The DPP had been shaken badly by corruption scandals surrounding its former leader, Chen Shui-bian, who was president from 2000 to 2008. (Mr Chen is now serving a 20-year sentence for corruption.) After her defeat today, Ms Tsai announced her resignation as the DPP’s chairwoman. But her party has shown that it is back as a powerful contender.

There will now be much bickering in the DPP over whether Ms Tsai could have done better. Some in her party will ask whether she should have signalled acceptance of what the KMT and China call the “1992 consensus”: an agreement they say was reached between the two sides to accept the idea of “one China”—and to disagree about what it means. In the build-up to the polls, many business leaders publicly expressed support for this consensus, implying support for the KMT’s way of handling ties with China. To the DPP, anything even hinting at the notion of one China of which Taiwan is part is anathema. China on the other hand insists that the 1992 consensus must be the basis for any cross-strait agreements. It attacked Ms Tsai’s calls for an ill-defined “Taiwan consensus” to replace it.

China will be especially relieved not to have to grapple with new cross-strait semantics at a time when it is preoccupied with its own (democracy-free) leadership changes later this year. Even if Ms Tsai had won, many analysts believe, China would have been restrained in its response, fearing that an escalation with Taiwan might exacerbate political divisions and social tensions at home. China’s president, Hu Jintao, will be stepping down as part of the leadership shuffle. He must be glad to know that the DPP’s next chance at the presidency of Taiwan will not come till long after his departure.

(Picture credit: AFP)

Close brush for China

Jan 15th 2012, 16:46

As I previewed, this election doesn’t look good for its lowest voters gathering from 1996 and too many non-political factors existing. Tsai Ing-wen having less political experience contested Ma Ying-jeou facing many embarassed difficulties, finally leading Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) into the recover. Kuomintang (KMT) wanes because of Ma’s the last four-year inner policy, but Ma still gets the victory of re-election with his slogan of “One China” policy appealing to Taiwanese electorate.

Taiwanese decided this result from the element concerned of this election, including the election of both government and parliament, 2 factors of arguable policy, 2 kinds of Taiwanese and the push-pull of 2 military powers. Almost of Taiwanese voters actively consider or are forced to know these walking into the poll stands. These two arguable policy is inner-exercise and cross-strait policy toward China, the contentious issue for many Taiwanese media while many enterpreneurs were talking. In addition, Ma and Tsai both put forward their separate thoughts of how Taiwanese should be in the future or what Taiwan may be classified as in the world; moreover, Washington D.C. and Beijing directly or indirectly disclosed the possible intention of Taiwan.

In general, two administrations talk of Ma’s economic progress with China positively in contrast with Tsai who may realize her suggestion - the referendum to decide whether this island should go unity with or independence from China. As we see this result, Taiwanese is inclined to choose their future way to Ma’s explanation. For almost of international sound, Ma’s way, so-called “Taiwan Road” claimed by Ma of what can satisfy Beijing’s mouth and get American support because of his peaceful tone, often feels lucrative (can earn more money from China) and great (some kinds of king).

However, there is still problem after Ma’s re-election. In fact, just few media guess the right side in this multiple choice. From NHK World’s report, the most accurate description of Ma’s cross-strait policy, as the followings:

“He wants to build closer ties with the mainland to boost Taiwan's economy, while maintaining the status quo of opposition to Chinese-led unification or Taiwan's independence.”

Why I MUST give this information is that China’s next President Xi Jin-Ping, who once gave me (also for the newly-elected legislator Hsiao Bi-khim) a metaphor using such a very indigenous song “Formosa Dream, Bao-Dau Manbo” by Yei Qi-tian (also former legislator as famous as DPP’s incumbent legislator Yu Tian) that I am so surprised for a long time, has disclosed the strong willingness to realizing “One country - Two systems” from General Yei Jian-Yin’s principle of peaceful unity in his tenure. Basically, although on the face of Ma’s sayings about China policy accords cross-strait idea and interests to the fourth Communist leader, Hu along with Wen, as a whole, Ma’s cross-strait policy is still “independent” from Beijing and owning his “individual” political system against China. Ma cannot accept and reach the real unity between communist leadership and Taipei’s government. For example, the last summer Ma protested Communist Party’s “lock” (Beijing immediately refuted this sentence) in diplomatic affairs so that Ma can chant or enchant his “Taiwan Road” and get the votes from Fujian (Minnan) and Hakka group of Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli in order to let his “New Taiwan” come true.

The continuously holding power of KMT and Ma seems to be in accordance with U.S. Interest, especially after American President Barack Obama announced the military adjustment in Asia (Robert Gates might do sell-off on Taiwan). Given the one-year time, U.S. can regain the ability of whole control in Asia against China’s rising up. On the other side, Hu and Wen want nothing changeable before stepping down so that no one say they do wrong thing. In Xi Jin-Ping and Li Ke-Qiang's view (truly affected by Wang Yang and I), U.S.’ network in Asia constantly affect the Asia’s safety while Ma is shedding something due to his sayings of why he “has no choice but to purchase weapon”, the behaviour just little different from that of Chen Shui-bian, because he must oppose any advise of unity announced by Beijing. Acoording to Xinhua last week, People’s Liberation Army assembled the biggest meeting from 1949 for unusual purpose, but no Taiwnese pay attention to this.

I have ever enthusiastic about supporting Chen Shui-bian living in a very wonderful surroundings for studying and expanding while I see Taiwan might fade away (even if signing numerous ECFA) owing to the comparison of Beijing and Taipei’s next generation, so I work under Li Ke-Qinag, the next prime minister, for a long time. Expressing my pro and cons between sovereignty and democracy, Taiwan must listen to my advise under Beijing’s leadership, still having some autonomous right and formal international place.

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筆者回顧起這篇在寫什麼的時候，好像是主要說自己快不認識台灣了，反正都偏要幫中共當時要執政的那批第五代做點事了。不過當個路人看看這開出什麼爛票。聲明「呷台灣米、泠台灣水、行台灣路、作台灣人」愀親切ㄟ馬英九（筆者真很對不起自己自尊）還是靠溫和的對外政策成功，顯示其2009年內政的失敗和之後2010-11年的復甦，是為台灣當地民眾所容許，這對筆者來說搞成了很糟糕的民主衰頹，還會和地方山頭勢力及倒逆行施的庸才行政官員妥協。

蔡英文不久辭出民進黨黨主席一職，由蘇貞昌代理。筆者有聊了一些美中台利益比較的問題，也老調重談中共對一個中國的原則及定義。對了，當年筆者是拿最近患了失智症的寶島歌王前立委葉啟田、過世的洪榮宏和也當過立委目前正在形成政治世家的余天都唱過的「寶島曼波」來發洩情緒，馬稱自己也愛本土，但試比較這種調調和得了曼波舞，甚至還繼續吹2008年的競選歌「台灣進行曲」，還是一貫民粹的手段連任了。真是厲害，馬天皇愚民有方，而蔡英文當年還是太過柔弱，但現在的蔡當了總統愛神隱又調子忽高忽低的，怎麼帶領台灣走向前程呢?

這篇中式英語很重，比如「As we see this result, Taiwanese is inclined to choose their future way to Ma’s explanation」按筆者原來中文意思應改成「The election's result echoed the view of Ma's thoughts today's Taiwanese recognized as their perspective.」這種問題後來在積極的使用Macmillan 字典後，會慢慢改善，會先抓出原來中文的相關字the result, recognize, Ma's thoughts 以及遠景perspective（那要用哀的），再作小排版及造句用動詞echo連起來，有時作出子句穿插變化，會比較妥善。

其他的這次選舉討論，下一篇會繼續提到。