Q: On 9/25 Xi Jinping is coming to the White House to have a state visit. How would you expect the Taiwan elections will be raised and discussed during his visit here?

主持人提問：習近平9月25日會來白宮舉行國家元首會議。你認為在他訪美的過程中，台灣大選會如何被討論？

[Bonnie Glaser]
A: I think every Chinese leader when he meets with an American counterpart raises Taiwan, in recent years my understanding that has been rather perfunctory, mostly because China has felt it has been able to manage the relationship with Taiwan by itself. I doubt, actually, that this time around that it will be very different. There is an enormous number of far more pressing issues between the US and China on the agenda, and frankly, limited time, between the two presidents? [moderator: 30 hours?] Well, 30 hours probably includes all of the events, right? So that means the ceremony on the South Lawn, the state dinner, the luncheon at the State Department. There will be two opportunities for in-depth discussion. One in the dinner, the prior evening when he arrives, and then one in the following day, with some other, of course, number of people in the room.

葛來儀：我想每當中國的領導人跟美國總統會面，一定為提及台灣。最近幾年，這個議題變成例行公事的性質，主要是因為，中國覺得自己就有辦法獨自處理對台關係。事實上，我認為這次不會有什麼不一樣。美國和中國之間，現在面臨大量更迫切的問題，而且老實說，兩國總統之間會面的時間相當有限吧？[主持人：30個小時？]三十個小時大概包括各種活動，對吧？所以包括白宮南草坪上的典禮、國宴、還有國務院的午宴。有兩個機會可以進行深入的討論。一個是晚餐時間，他剛來的第一天晚上，然後是隔天，當然還會有一些其他人在場。

So I would be surprised if Xi does not raise it, because this is something Chinese leaders always want to lay down a marker. This time, I would guess that Xi Jinping’s message will be that the United States should try to play a more proactive role to ensure that cross-strait stability exists, and in order to have cross-strait stability, that there must be an acceptance by Taiwan’s next president of the 1992 Consensus, and more importantly, One China, and that the US should play a role in ensuring that that happens. But I doubt it would be a prolonged conversation. I think we’ll hear more from China after the election, and at this particular juncture in time, I think there are just far more important and really urgent issues that the two presidents will want to talk about.

所以如果習近平不提起這個議題，我也會很驚訝，因為這是中國領導人一直想要設一個底限的議題。這一次，我猜習近平的訊息，是會要求美國扮演更積極的角色，確保兩岸關係穩定，另外為了獲得穩定的兩岸關係，一定會要台灣的下一任總統接受九二共識，還有更重要的是「一個中國」，進而要求美國應該要扮演一個角色，以確保這樣的狀態。但我不認為會深入討論這個議題。我想我們會在選舉過後聽到更多中國的意見，但是現在這個特定的時間點，我想兩位總統有許多更重要、更迫切的議題想要討論。