Econbrowser的油價波動對經濟的影響Economic consequences of recent oil price changes,

http://www.econbrowser.com/

計量式在此

經濟意涵是....Dr. Hamilton said:'' We often see some economic responses right away, such as a drop in consumer sentiment, fall in sales of less energy-efficient vehicles, or build up of inventories. But it usually takes some time for the effects of these to be multiplied 乘數as they ripple through the rest of the economy."

油價波動對經濟有lag 3季的效果

https://skydrive.live.com/?cid=2c8f2a413e53f172#!/view.aspx?cid=2C8F2A413E53F172&resid=2C8F2A413E53F172%21247

a slow growth is expected........  
my fidnings are 

1. GDP每增加1%，服飾需求將增加1.92%; 反之亦然

2. 當GDP增長1%，聚酯纖維需求會上升8%; 反之亦然

3. 油價的的波動與聚酯纖維產出呈負向統計顯著性關係，油價上漲1%將導致聚酯纖維產出減少0.22%。尤於油價的上漲帶動纖維原料及纖維價格的上漲，將使纖維產出減少

ps. 1 用技術分析oil and cotton 也可, nana 8月1日畫的...

ps 2 CPL 函數...可在trend chart (2010 till now)解釋

ps 3 I'm glad that my model still vaild today...ha~but my model data is gone with the dead NB....