7樓.
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
2019/05/30 04:49
Trump Hands China an Easy Win in the Trade War
Kevin Rudd, a former prime minister of Australia, is the president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
When President Trump tweeted on May 5 that the China trade deal was off, the historical echoes in Beijing were loud and clear. Almost exactly 100 years earlier, China’s “May Fourth Movement” of 1919 was a direct response to the actions of President Woodrow Wilson at the end of World War I. Wilson had promised China, an American ally, that German colonies in Shandong would be returned to Chinese sovereignty, but instead handed them to Japan. China exploded with anti-American, nationalist sentiment. One of the eventual consequences was the establishment of the Chinese Communist Party, which for the last 70 years has ruled the country.
Thus, Mr. Trump has handed Xi Jinping a remarkably effective nationalist card to play at a time when he has been under pressure at home because of a slowing economy. The Chinese media is now full of accounts of the country’s economic resilience and appeals to patriotism, even invoking the spirit of the Korean War, when, according to the official narrative, China was able to stare down the vastly superior American military.
And just in case people didn’t get the point, Mr. Xi recently visited Jiangxi, the starting point of the Long March in 1934, in which the Communist Party endured many hardships but ultimately emerged victorious.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/29/opinion/trump-china-trade-war.html
懇請不吝賜教？
6樓.
Nanting
2019/05/20 18:55
China 現在攤牌了會有什麼樣的結果？
現在給大家一個比喻, Trump 是賣東西的店家, 要價$10, 而China 說太貴只願出$5, Trump 說不賣,China 掉頭要走, Trump 説$8, China 仍要離開, Trump 最後說好了賣你了, $5 總比沒有好,這是最可能的最好結果。
由Trump 在兩天裏延長Auto trade war, 去除加拿大墨西哥steel 稅,顯出有奌慌, Trump 急着打華為的牌是為了報復China, 但沒有好好思考, 現在問題來了, 因為如AT&T 都在用華為設備, 如不能買到零件, 很多設備等於報廢, 不能通訊,今天又宣佈這些公司在未來90天仍可買貨, 至於賣chips給華為的美國公司損失更大, 華為一年從美國買$11B, 這下生意都沒了, 這些公司兩天都跌5-10%,如AVGO, QCOM, MU, SWKS, INTC, XLNX, TSM, 現在美國又說禁令可能150天後才施行（未經証實）。
今天Google 又提出要華為to use open-source version of Android(對華為手機可能有麻煩）所有目標都是為了施壓trade talks, 現在可以暫時保住這些公司的股票, 我相信華為早有準備,傳說已多買一年存貨, 但我相信China 不會為華為去簽不平等條約, 假如美國真対華為禁運, China 也可找美國需要的零件實施禁運那麼很多行業都要停工如汽車。
Trump 將用盡各種方法不讓股市下跌, Friday 股市在最後一小時下跌主要就是傳出 US trade talks with China have stalled. 週末對華為延期禁運可能會使明後天股市回升一些, 因為NASDAQ 上星期跌了1.3%, 上面所列的一些chips 股都可能跌過頭反彈, Trump 將試着在未來30天談出結果, 也可能再延期拖下去, 但是很多行業已經受不了, Trump 有不能再拖了的壓力。
因為伊朗的緊張情勢, 油可能短期會上升。
剛剛有五位股市大咖公佈在1st. Quarter, 有三位新買AMZN, 另一位加買, 表示大家仍看好AMZN。
可注意TSM 在$40 有很好support, 從4/24 的$45.50跌下來的。
http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/3145671 2,519年前﹐孔迂老夫子 『五十知天命』← 論語·顏淵 ~ 子夏曰：「商聞之矣：死生有命，富貴在天。」
