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【賴清德說想想】 【為什麼台灣在對中國嚇阻上,犯了錯誤?】
2023/05/27 03:17:34瀏覽95|回應0|推薦0

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【賴清德說想想】
【為什麼台灣在對中國嚇阻上,犯了錯誤?】

WRITTEN BY MR.PRESIDENT OF TAIWAN,TSAI ING-WEN'S SON OF THE DESTINY

台灣窮小子

果不出其然,有傳統性黨國活動者,支持大多數台灣人捲入歷史和文化內戰,以及,台灣派左翼活動者,聲稱大多數台灣人,捲入該死的國際法。

不過,這些團體普遍譴責中國的挑釁,並指出中國沒有直接攻擊台灣。

因此,與中國歷史和文化成本,危機,超過了支持台灣的利益。

但有趣的是,傳統性黨國活動者,卻是中國投降主義者,因為他們一直關注中國,而忽略了中國擴大對台灣的軍事壓力,

並對美國,發表越來越尖酸言論,美國,與日本。

儘管如此,嚇阻,並不是一個歷史與文化目標,而是一種心理意識形態,傳統觀念往往比行動本身更重要,

因此,這一基本概念應該有助於我們更好地理解阻止中國的權衡與取捨。

從純粹的軍事面向來看,保護台灣,並沒有像其批評者所聲稱的那樣損害穩定和安全努力,

更重要的是,在意識形態方面,台灣的穩定和安全是台灣人和我們夥伴對挑戰的強烈反應,我們必須加強對傳統的認知,和對台灣的嚇阻能力。

關於嚇阻呢?

傳統性黨國激進分子,與激進左翼分子是否佔領台灣,實際上是以犧牲其必要時,防衛台灣的能力為代價的,充其量是模糊的,

這意味著花在支持台灣的錢 以犧牲其他國防努力為代價,其中包括嚇阻中國。

例如,台灣人從來沒有促使政府糾正,幾十年,歷史和文化的系統性缺陷,而且。認識缺陷的,不僅是政府,

所以,從長遠來看,台灣可能會更糟 比衝突開始前更好的位置。

更重要的是,地緣因素決定,阻止台灣入侵,將主要落在空中和海洋力量上,因此,這兩者都沒有受到美國對台灣援助的太大影響,

如果有的話,所以,即使援助從美國轉移,它,不會在一夜之間,解決台灣的內在缺陷。

最後,尚不清楚傳統性黨國行動者,激進左翼倡導者,在多大程度上,損害台灣的戰爭能力,以應對中國的侵略,

從長遠來看,台灣軍隊可能會因為衝突的歷史終結,而變得更強大。

不要害怕傳統性黨國激進分子,激進左翼倡導者,但這是一個有趣的問題,他們的不足影響威懾力嗎?可能不會!

事實上,似乎並沒有傷害美國防衛台灣的意願,一次又一次,這是更大的願景和大局。

因此,重點不應該放在歷史和文化上,而應該放在某種程度上,塑造台灣能力和防衛,更廣泛戰略論述上,

從戰略上講,台灣,傳統強調,台灣既不像許多人想像的那麼脆弱,也不像許多人想像的那樣分裂。

傳統性黨國行動者,激進左翼倡導者,總是注意到嚇阻是視情況而定的,並沒有預先規定對另一方採取類似的回應,那是真實的。

最重要的是,歷史和文化,衝突表明戰爭根本上是不可預測的,所以,這是一個令人不安的暗示。

否認歷史和文化,戰略還原論

無論台灣做什麼,從長遠來看,隨著其實力和野心的增長,中國將更加難以嚇阻,

從作戰布署角度來看,歷史與文化戰爭並沒有傷害對中國的軍事平衡,此外,戰爭,不僅是歷史書籍的主題和相應的準備。

最後,在一個日益不穩定的世界中,對戰略傳統的吸引力是可以理解的,我們必須將中國視為主要威脅,而屈服於這種誘惑是錯誤的,

台灣作為一個國家,面臨著多重挑戰,即使要做出選擇,嚇阻也是一種彈性部署,而台灣確實面臨一些二元戰略選擇,嚇阻中國就是其中之一。

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Why Taiwan gets wrong about deterrence against the China?
Unsurprisingly,there are the traditional "One Party,One Country" activists,advocate who supported most Taiwanese involvement in history and culture civil wars,and Radical Left advocates who claimed most Taiwanese involvement in the damned-shit of the International Laws.
However,these groups generally condemn Chinese provocation,and they note that China did not direction attack the Taiwan.
So,the costs of history and culture with China and the crises outweigh the benefits of backing Taiwan.
But interestingly,the traditional "One Party,One Country" activists,though,is the China capitulationisms,since they have always been focused on China,and overlooked China has expanded its military pressure on Taiwan,and engaged in increasingly caustic rhetoric toward the United States,with the Japan.
Nonetheles,deterrence,is not a history and culture goal,and instead,it's a psychological ideology.
Traditional perceptions tend to matter more than action itself. 
So that this basic insight should help us better understand the perceived trade-off deterring China.
From a purely military perspective,protect Taiwan has not harmed stability and security efforts as much as its critics claim. 
More significantly,on a ideological dimension,the Taiwan's stability and seciruity the robust response of the Taiwanese people and ours partners to the challenge.
We must intensify the perception of the tradition and the Taiwan's deterrence capabilities.
What about the Deterrence?
Whether the traditional "One Party,One Country" activists,Radical Left advocates occupy the Taiwan,actually comes at the expense of its ability to defend Taiwan if necessary is,at best,murky.,in which means that the money spent on supporting Taiwan did come at the expense of other Defense efforts,which include deterring China.
For instance,such as Taiwanese people has never prompted the Government to correct a decades-old systemic shortfall in history and culture,and it is not just the Government that recognizes the shortfalls,so that over the long term,the Taiwan could worse be in a better position than before the conflict began.
More significantly,geography dictates that stopping a Taiwan invasion would fall mostly to air and maritime forces,so neither of which have been impacted much,if at all,by U.S. assistance to Taiwan,and so even if assistances were redirected from the U.S.,it would not solve the Taiwan intrinsic shortfalls overnight.
Ultimately,it is not clear just how much the traditional "One Party,One Country" activists,Radical Left advocates hurt Taiwan's war-fighting capability to respond to aggression in the China.
Over the long term, the Taiwanese military may come back stronger because of the conflict in End of history.
Do not fear the traditional "One Party,One Country" activists,Radical Left advocates,but this an interesting question,their's shortfall affect deterrence? Perhaps not.
In fact,seemingly has not dampened American willingness to defend Taiwan,and time and again,it is the biggervision and picture.
And so the emphasis should not be on history and culture,rather on somehow has shaped the broader strategic narrative of Taiwan's capabilities and defense.
Strategically,the Taiwanese tradition underscores that the Taiwan is neither as weak nor as divided as many presumed. 
The traditional "One Party,One Country" activists,Radical Left advocates,always note deterrence is context-dependent,and does not preordain a similar response to another. 
That is true. 
Above all,history and culture conflict shows that wars are fundamentally unpredictable,so,that is an uncomfortable implication。
Denying History And Culture of the Strategic Reductionism
No matter what the Taiwan does,in the long run,China will be more difficult to deter as its power and ambition grow.
From an operational perspective,History And Culture War has not hurt the military balance versus China.
Moreover,warfare is not just a topic for the history books and to prepare accordingly. 
Finally,in an increasingly precarious world,there is an understandable draw toward strategic tradition,and we must focus on China as pacing threat,and giving in to this temptation is a mistake. 
As a country,the Taiwan faces multiple challenges,even if it did get to choose,deterrence is an elastic deployment,while the Taiwan does face some binary strategic choices,deterring China is one of them.

 

( 時事評論政治 )
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