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| 2010/01/31 08:24:53瀏覽140｜回應17｜推薦0 | |
台股特別報導──( 99/01/31 ，星期日)
台股前天( 99/01/29，星期五)收7640.44，下跌54.14點(－0.70)。
(1)美股未來走勢有下列幾種：
(a) The first set of five concluded in Mar 08. There was a counter rally into May 08, and then another set of five waves into the Mar 09 low. Naturally this could be counted as a 1-2-3 decline, with waves 4 and 5 yet to come. That scenario does have some possibilities. If it were to unfold this way it would then suggest a much larger bear market.(詳4月4日-weekend update，http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/2008-k10089/article?mid=1931&next=1927&l=f&fid=7) (b)&(c)…………… Banks are dysfunctional, credit lines are tight, businesses that relied on ever expanding credit are failing, unemployment is rising, and deflationary pressures are everywhere. We can all also agree that this is a cyclical economic downturn and not just an equity bear market. In the past century all cyclical bear markets have displayed similar characteristics. First, the equity market loses 50% of its value. Second, there is a 50% retracement of the entire bear market. Third, the final downleg. We label these three events are Primary waves A, B and C. The 1937-1942 cyclical bear market: lost 50% in a year, retraced 50% in a few months, and then took three years to retest the lows. The 1929-1932 bear market: crashed 50% in a matter of months, retraced 50% within a few months, and then continued to decline for the next two years until the market lost about 90% of its value. Technically, the main difference between the two cyclical bear markets is the 1929-1932 bear market continued to make new lows for the next two years after the initial 50% decline. While the 1937-1942 bear market went sideways for a few years, and only made new lows at the end. Our current cyclical bear market has already declined 50%, but has yet to retrace 50% of that decline. The retracement may be underway now, as the market has already rallied 24% off its recent lows. When the retracement does complete, Primary waves A and B will have completed, and then Primary C will be underway. Only then can we estimate the potential total damage to the equity market. Prior to these two events occurring, many forecasters are just making educated guesses. Should the bear market stall we'll enter a 1937-1942 scenario. Should the bear market start making lower lows, 1929-1932. The 1929-1932 bear market displayed some chartacteristics of its own. More on this should the need arise. When this bear market does complete its 50% retracement, to remain in equities would be a high risk venture………………(詳：http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!D 2C B 8C 5EBA 2A DE86!26710.entry)
(d) A triangle or a complex flat。
(2) 『道瓊指數從14198.10下跌到6469.95大A總共花了17個月，大B波若反彈17 × 0.382＝6.4個月，17 × 0.5＝8.5個月，若以對稱而言大C波再17個月，那麼大C波之低點約在2011年3、4月。』，道瓊指數之大B波應該完成了，大B波的特性，簡單的說，就是大都數人都以為多頭市場即將來臨，結果崩跌！！！
(3) 台股4000看能否守住！！！
(4) 『金剛伏魔圈』是渡厄、渡劫、渡難三位高僧集合計百年枯禪之力，達心靈皆通再合黑索攻勢互補其不足而成！『金剛伏魔圈』以“金剛經”為最高旨義，最後要達“無我相，無人相，無眾生相，無壽者相”，於人我之分，生死之別，盡皆視作空幻。今日要救台股，我看非得使出『金剛伏魔圈』不可了！！！！
(5) 操盤手須對美股未來走勢了然於胸，才好救台股。
(6)波浪理論基本精神為『型態＞比例＞時間』。
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