南海爭端：誰會臨陣退縮，中國還是美國？

標準答案就是當美國硬著頭皮繼續玩不下去的時候,美國就會臨陣脫逃,嘴硬的回應中國,我山牳大叔放你們中國一馬,來日方長從長計議,咱們騎驢看唱本走著瞧?

美國人騎虎難下,無法繼續鬥爭中國南海,中國展現泱泱大國的風範,好讓美國人摸摸鼻子知難而退,謀求雙贏的這樣一來中國戰略成功,不戰而驅人之兵,中國南海議題愈來愈愈火熱,下一回合的謀略戰,將於201606新加坡的香格里拉會議中繼續鬥爭.

中國和美國正運行在碰撞的軌道上，而衝突的中心議題便是南海，每一個國家似乎都在試圖參與這場競爭。

南海爭端最初只是中國與周邊幾個國家的地區爭端，但很快便升級為中美之間的經濟和軍事對決。

 South China Sea standoff: 'Both sides need to step back'?

China immediately condemned the most recent patrol and called for the U.S. to focus more on building trust between the two nations.

The long-running conflict in the South China Sea has become violent in the past. In 1974, China and South Vietnam fought over the Paracel Islands, with China ultimately gaining the upper hand. Today, Vietnam, Taiwan and China all lay claim to the islands

中美若真軍事對抗 中國不會退縮南海問題使得中美之間的矛盾逐漸升溫，而近期的南海軍機對峙事件更是仍輿論嘩然。倘若中美真走向軍事對抗，結果會如何呢？

中國只是嚴厲聲明，稱美國違反國際法，並試圖爭取周邊國家參與到亞投行的建設之中。現在中國已經准備好通過派遣094核潛艇威懾美國。

顯然，中國和美國都在進行“老鷹捉小雞”的博弈，雙方均在努力向對方證明自己的戰鬥力已經達到何種水準。

，中國的核威懾必须是真實有效的，以便更大的對美國制定的中國政策產生影響。正如任何一個國家評估美國軍事力量是，將想到美國航母，而非與美國軍隊正面交鋒。這樣的說法聽上去似乎有些中國欲臨陣退縮的意味？

也許正是如此。若中美最終真的走向軍事對抗，相比之下可能中國會損失更大，這將對該地區經濟一體化和經濟增長十分不利。

也許并非如此。與日本不同，中國在勇敢抗擊外國軍隊的方面有著悠久的历史，即使最終其經濟受到災難性打擊，中國也不會退縮。這將增大該地區发生軍事對抗的可能性，不過，也許美國會尋找到創新的方式從這場博弈脫身。

South China Sea Tensions: How Do We Know What's Really Happening?

The Asia-Pacific region is mostly water, which is why Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) gets a lot of attention in matters of peace, prosperity, and security. The importance of MDA surfaces in practice when, say, China maneuvers in the South China Sea and the U.S. and its allies assert principles of freedom of navigation, prevention of conflict and coercion, and the rule of international law.

China’s behavior in the South China Sea. The imagery not only affects how stakeholders see China’s behavior but also how they evaluate U.S. responses that are under scrutiny in the region. In another MDA example, DigitalGlobe’s imagery helped pinpoint slavery-fueled fishing operations that brought illicit seafood into U.S. grocery chains and pet food companies.

If these trends continue, they will reshape the effectiveness of our understanding about security, sustainability, and safety literally around the planet. So thinking of their impact only in the MDA context is quite limiting. Together, they stand to have a substantial impact on state-to-state relations across the board. They will also transform state-society interactions within and across countries.

If governments and militaries constantly look at and around the planet, they can expect others are also looking at them. They will therefore need to adjust their tactical, operational, and strategic maneuvers – and not just toward their counterparts in other countries. If prices come down as projected for end-users beyond governments, these realities will also filter down to empower groups and individuals interested in shaping human interactions on the ground across all kinds of domains.

Beijing Is Angering Its Only Friend In The Disputed South China Sea