英國氣象局發佈研究報告指出，聖嬰等自然氣候型態推波助瀾之下，人類造成的全球暖化將在今、明(2015&2016)兩年造成異常飆高的均溫。

英國國立大氣科學中心（National Centre for Atmospheric Science）專家薩頓（Rowan Sutton）告訴記者：「今、明、後三年，全球均溫有可能創下史上超熱年度紀錄。」

他說：「這可不是偶發事件。我們正看到由溫室氣體排放造成的能量效應，在地球的海洋和大氣層中穩定地逐步上升。」

報告說，全球溫度上升的速度在未來數年可能加快，將終結過去十年全球暖化趨緩現象。

全球暖化陷入「停滯」，讓許多全球暖化的懷疑論者抓到痛點，表示這驗證了氣候變遷主要受自然循環週期影響，而非人類活動。

然而某些科學家辯稱，全球暖化並未顯著放慢，並指出計算有誤。

英國氣象局公佈這份多達20頁、名為「氣候系統的大變革正在進行中？」（Big changes underway in the climate system？）的報告，凸顯影響到整個地區降雨和氣溫的主要天氣型態，在當前所面臨的轉變。

報導指出，以熱帶太平洋為中心的聖嬰現象天氣型態「已在進行中」，並正發展為史上最強烈聖嬰現象之一。非常強烈的聖嬰現象，也曾發生在1997和1982年冬天。

底下有更科學（PDO 太平洋十年際振盪（濤動） & AMO 大西洋十年際振盪）的英文內容二篇：

1 英國氣象局官方文件(有一個PDF檔) Big Changes Underway(Official)；

2 報導原文：Big changes underway in the climate system

New research shows regional temperature and rainfall worldwide will be affected by big changes that are underway in key patterns in the global climate system.

The latest climate predictions and global observations suggest that shifts in key global climate patterns, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), an El Niño in the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are underway. They are implicated in the weak Indian monsoon and relatively inactive Atlantic hurricane season this year and will affect regional temperature and rainfall worldwide in coming years. They also affect global temperature; with a warming influence from El Nino and positive PDO, and a cooling from a negative AMO.

Professor Adam Scaife said: "Although we can't say for sure that the slowdown in global warming is over, global temperatures are now rising again."

These changes suggest both 2015 and 2016 are likely to be very warm globally. Earth's average surface temperature is running at or near record levels so far in 2015 at 0.38±0.14°C* above the 1981-2010 average (0.68±0.14 °C above the 1961-1990 average). The observations of exceptional global temperature this year agree well with the Met Office forecast issued in 2014.

Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, Professor Stephen Belcher said: "We know natural patterns contribute to global temperature in any given year, but the very warm temperatures so far this year indicate the continued impact of increasing greenhouse gases. With the potential that next year could be similarly warm, it's clear that our climate continues to change."

These changes are consistent with a return of rapid warming in the near term. Professor Scaife continued: "We can't be sure this is the end of the slowdown but decadal warming rates are likely to reach late 20th century levels within two years."

Further long-term warming is expected over the coming decades, but the patterns described in this report will continue to vary the pace of that warming.

Last updated: 15 September 2015