 
字體：小 中 大 |
|
|
|
| 2013/07/31 15:58:10瀏覽166｜回應0｜推薦0 | |
| Taipei-Manila row: Three possible scenarios
Published on May 23, 2013 | The Straits Times MONDAY'S article ("Taipei-Manila row: Where is it heading?") asked a fair question, which deserves an answer. There are three possible scenarios arising from the dispute between Taiwan and the Philippines over the Taiwanese fisherman's shooting death in waters claimed by both sides. In the first scenario, the Philippines fully accepts Taiwan's four demands - apology, punishment, compensation and negotiation - without conditions, while Taiwan accordingly eases up on its show of military muscle and ends sanctions. Yet, this is the least likely scenario. Besides feeling no pain from Taipei's sanctions, Manila has no incentive to risk another failure similar to the one that occurred in the Scarborough Shoal stand-off a year ago. And without positive responses from Manila, Taipei will not find a way to back down gracefully. So the most likely will be the second scenario: Taiwan uses up all its political and economic leverage, while the Philippines does not retreat, or takes an even harder stance. The two countries may fall into a vicious circle of tensions, which, as argued in the article, will hurt Asean's reputation for resolving disputes. Taiwan may be forced to enhance its military capacity in Taiping Island - the largest island among the Spratly Islands - which may trigger more tensions in nearby waters. The best scenario would be the third one: Both Taiwan and the Philippines calm their nationalist surge while trying to negotiate a practical fishery agreement. This agreement will draw a clear maritime boundary in their overlapping territorial waters. It can also benefit Asean countries by offering a workable resolution that can serve as a model for similar maritime disputes. This scenario, however, will require a greater consensus among claimant countries that are keen to apply a common code of conduct in the South China Sea. Unfortunately, tensions are still high, but there will be a chance for the crisis to become a turning point that can lead to a happy ending. Let's all pray for it and try to make it happen. Charles I-hsin Chen FORUM NOTE: The writer is a research associate at the University of London's School of Oriental and African Studies, and a former spokesman for Taiwan's ruling Kuomintang party. |
|
| ( 時事評論｜國際 ) |
