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| 2016/06/17 12:27:12瀏覽137｜回應0｜推薦0 | |
| As an opportunist, Duterte is different from Aquino who sticks to an unbending approach to siding with the US and confronting China to the end of the day, and has navigated the Sino-Philippine relationship into an impasse. He does not only wield a stick, but also offers carrots Hong Kong international school. So he insists on a principled stand, but has also sent messages to China for rapprochement and cooperation. The presidential election can serve as a reset button for China and the Philippines to reverse their deteriorating ties, and Duterte's stand and strategies on the South China Sea dispute, in essence, depend on his understanding of the Philippines' national interest. Duterte is expected to trade on the tensions between China and the US in the South China Sea, and seek benefits from both sides. The result of the international arbitration filed by the Aquino administration is very likely to favor the Philippines, giving Duterte leverage in bargaining with China. Manila and Beijing might reach a reconciliation: The Philippines will be asked to employ a low-key approach to the result of the arbitration and turn to bilateral negotiation with China; in exchange, China will incorporate the Philippines into its "Belt and Road" initiative, expand investment in the Philippines and seek larger cooperation in infrastructure. Duterte is more an experienced mayor than a seasoned diplomat. His focus on internal affairs can put a gloss on his rule more easily Muay Thai. Duterte is well aware of the fact that the Philippines is in dire need of investment in infrastructure, so he has shown willingness several times to conduct joint development of the South China Sea with China. Once both countries have agreed to put aside their conflicts and separate economic cooperation from maritime dispute, the Sino-Philippine relationship will start to roll toward a positive end. The US, however, has a major impact on how far Duterte can go on his new path. The traditional US-Philippine alliance assures Washington's dominant influence on the Philippines, a fact that can hardly be changed by a new president. Washington won't allow Manila to veer off track or disturb its rebalance to the Asia-Pacific. As for the Philippines, without Washington's support, it won't have any leverage in bargaining with China. Generally speaking, there are some hopes in Duterte's South China Sea policy. Aquino's abolishment of the Philippines' balance between major powers and adoption of siding with the US to counter China have proven detrimental to both China and the Philippines. Duterte's ascent might bring in a rebound of the bilateral relationship. If Duterte can put straight Aquino's deflected China policy and strike a kind of balance between China and the Philippines, the heavily disturbed Sino-Philippine relationship will recover aerospace technology . |
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