The ever-awkward ties between China and Taiwan

曾經怯懦不前的中台關係

The government-in-waiting of Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan's president-elect, has stirred up controversy by announcing the appointment of Lai Shin-yuan as the next head of the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC). The MAC is the cabinet-level body responsible for Taiwan's relations with mainland China. Ms Lai's appointment is controversial because she is a former legislator of the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), a political party that supports the island's independence from mainland China. Taiwan enjoys de facto independence, but China considers the island part of its own national territory and has warned that it will use force in the event of any move to declare formal independence.

等待入主政權的台灣民選總統馬英九，因為宣佈賴幸媛擔任下一屆陸委會主席而引發爭議。陸委會是內閣閣員，負責處理台灣跟中國大陸的關係。賴的任命引發爭議，因為她曾是台聯的立法委員，該政黨支持台灣獨立。台灣目前享有實質的獨立地位，但中國則將該島嶼視為其領土的一部份，而警告一旦台灣宣佈獨立，將採取武力手段。

The appointment of Ms Lai is striking because her politics appear to be at odds with those of the incoming president, Mr Ma, who has promised to boost cross-Strait economic ties and whose party, the Kuomintang (KMT), is far more acceptable to the mainland Chinese government than was the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of the departing president, Chen Shui-bian.

賴的任命引發爭議，因為其政治立場跟未來的馬總統相左，他答應強化海峽兩岸的經濟合作關係，而其政黨國民黨，相較於屬民進黨支持台獨而即將卸任的總統陳水扁而言，更能接受中國大陸的政權。

Since Mr Ma's presidential election victory in March, relations between Taiwan and China have visibly warmed, with the vice-president-elect, Vincent Siew, recently visiting China for a landmark meeting with the Chinese president, Hu Jintao. On Tuesday Lien Chan, honorary chairman of the KMT and a former Taiwan vice-president, also met the Chinese president. The political resurgence of the KMT has revived hopes, particularly among businesses in Taiwan, of an improvement in cross-Strait relations that could yield commercial benefits (for instance, through the relaxation of travel and investment restrictions). In this context, it seems strange at first that the incoming administration of Mr Ma is now willing to risk this agenda by appointing someone whose links to the TSU are certain to displease China. The appointment is doubly interesting because of its unpopularity within Mr Ma's own party.

因為馬在3月嬴得總統大選，當選副總統的蕭萬長最近跟中國總理胡錦濤進行歷史性的會面，而熱絡了台灣和中國大陸的關係。在週四，國民黨的榮譽主席和前副總統連戰，也跟中國總理會面。國民黨再次取得政權，而又燃起了希望，尤其是台灣的企業，在兩岸的商業利益關係有重大的改善(例如，旅遊和投資限制的鬆綁)。在本報導的事實中，似乎未來主政的馬先生希望指派台聯相關人士的任職，而在這個議題上，則讓中國略為不快。這項任命更耐人尋味的是，連馬先生本身的政黨人士也不支持。.

The reason for the appointment—announced by the new premier-designate, Liu Chao-shiuan, on April 28th—is probably to placate the large sections of Taiwan's population who favour the status quo on cross-Strait relations. These people would be anxious if the KMT proceeded too quickly with its plans to strengthen bilateral economic links. Many Taiwanese fear that China's interest in closer commercial co-operation, and thus its friendliness towards the KMT, is but a ploy to achieve unification by stealth. Although the KMT trounced the DPP in terms of the number of seats won in the parliamentary election in January, the DPP still won over one-third of the national vote, indicating the presence of an important constituency suspicious of closer links with China. Mr Ma needs to be seen addressing the concerns of that constituency, despite his party's newly-won dominance of the legislature. This is perhaps even more necessary in view of the concerns that China's handling of the unrest in Tibet will have raised with regard to Chinese claims of sovereignty over Taiwan.

於4月28日，未來的閣揆的劉兆玄對此任命的理由，可能是要安撫希望維持兩岸關係現狀的大部份台灣人民。這些人民對國民黨急於強化兩岸經濟關係則感到不安。許多台灣人民害怕中國為更明密切的商業合作關係，而對國民黨表示善意，而是要暗地謀圖促成統一。雖然國民黨在1月的國會大選席位，大嬴民進黨，但民進黨仍嬴得全國1/3的選票，顯示目前某些選民，認為跟中國大陸更密切關的係，仍存有疑慮。馬先生雖然最近嬴得絕對多數，但仍需化解這些選民的疑慮。也許看到中國大陸處理西藏暴動的問題，更讓人員關心中國大陸對台灣主權的宣示立場。

The appointment of Ms Lai thus makes sense as a political smokescreen that may actually increase Mr Ma's freedom to promote cross-Strait co-operation. The appointment is probably intended as a high-profile signal—both to Taiwan voters and to China—that closer economic links should not be confused with a shift towards unification. This may assuage some concerns within Taiwan about a KMT "sell-out" to China, yet at the same time it is unlikely to be provocative enough to upset relations with the mainland more than briefly. China's fundamental preference for a KMT-led government will remain unaltered, even if Beijing at some point sees the need to echo Taiwan's show of defiance with a show of its own—for example through temporarily more belligerent rhetoric.

賴的任命可模糊馬的政治立場，而實際提供馬先生促進海峽兩岸合作，更多的自由。該任命可能是對台灣選民和中國大陸更明確的表示，就是更密切的經濟合作關係，未必就有意傾向統一的模糊立場。這在台灣內部，更讓人緩解國民黨可能賣台的疑慮，但同時也不至於損及跟中國大陸的關係。即使北京在某些觀點，需回應台灣表面上的不從立場，例如，藉由目前看來更好戰的口氣，中國大陸原本偏好國民黨主導政權立場，將仍保持不變。

The downside for Mr Ma is that the appointment is already creating friction within the KMT. Also, Ms Lai's appointment only works as a strategy provided that she toes the president's relatively moderate line on cross-Strait relations. Were she to use her new position to promote hardline pro-independence views similar to those of many of her former TSU colleagues, she would become a liability for the KMT. Mr Ma would then be forced to replace her, but not before suffering considerable damage to his credibility.

馬先生的弱點就是該項任命，已造成國民黨內部的磨擦。同樣地，賴的任命假如成為總統對海峽兩岸關係的緩衝時，則只是策略的運用而已。假如她運用自己的新職位跟過去許多的台聯同僚一樣，來鼓吹支持獨立的強硬立場時，則會成為國民黨的負擔。馬先生會在自己的威信未受到明顯傷害前，即受迫撤換其職務。