央行示警 ETF恐影響金融穩定

工商時報巫其倫

我國ETF市場規模至去年底已達6.4兆元，針對發展現況，中央銀行發布分析報告，指稱ETF已成國內投資不可忽視的主力商品，但也同時示警，ETF雖有風險分散、交易便利等優點，但投資過程中仍有風險，隨市場規模迅速擴增，恐對投資人及整體金融穩定性帶來潛在影響。

值得注意的是，央行並首度提到應將ETF的管理，訂立專法規範。

央行指出，近年ETF規模快速擴張，高股息ETF募集風潮熱絡，促使吸引投資人解定存或貸款搶購，引發監理機關關注，代表對金融市場的影響力不容小覷，主要是擴張速度及資金集中，可能對市場產生影響。

央行首度提出，國內ETF商品的監理，分散在證券投資信託、證交法相關法規及投信投顧自律規範，目前尚未訂定專法規範。

央行並認為，ETF迅速擴張，對金融市場影響值得關注，對投資人可能出現折溢價風險、追蹤誤差風險、基金清算風險及流動性風險。

對金融體系也帶來潛在風險，

首先是系統性風險，ETF的一籃子交易模式，使得齊買齊賣現象更頻繁，削弱風險分散效果，增加金融市場系統性風險；

其次是助漲助跌風險，市場過度樂觀或不確定性上升，可能產生羊群效樣，導致集中買進或賣出，增加短期股價波動。

三是集中度風險，若追蹤標的集中於少數幾家公司，可能導致成分股間連動過高，使各成分股股價波動趨於一致，降低投資組合分項效益。

央行提醒，近年因市場瀰漫降息預期，且台股走揚及高配息誘因等，帶動股票型ETF成長，且投信公司積極行銷，導致投資人一窩蜂搶購，另外，業者動用平準金維持高配息、頻繁轉換持股等，可能導致投資成本增加並侵蝕報酬，恐損害投資長期利益。

央行報告指出，去年底全球ETF市場規模達14.8兆美元，較2010年的1.5兆美元成長9.9倍，以美國市場近7成居最大宗；國內ETF規模至去年底達新台幣6.4兆元，較2015年2,021億元大幅成長32倍，且10年間ETF數量劇增至260檔，受益人數成長60倍達1,437萬人，2023年3月起，ETF規模已正式超越共同基金，占台股市值比重持續攀升。

https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/央行示警-etf恐影響金融穩定-201000368.html

Eagles - Lyin Eyes (Live 1977)

City girls just seem to find out early

How to open doors with just a smile

A rich old man, and she wont have to worry

Shell dress up all in lace, go in style

Late at night, a big old house gets lonely

I guess every form of refuge has its price

And it breaks her heart to think her love is only

Given to a man with hands as cold as ice

So she tells him she must go out for the evening

To comfort an old friend whos feeling down

But he knows where shes goin as shes leavin

She is headed for the cheatin side of town

You cant hide your lyin eyes

And your smile is a thin disguise

I thought by now youd realize

There aint no way to hide your lyin eyes

On the other side of town, a boy is waiting

With fiery eyes and dreams no one could steal

She drives on through the night, anticipating

Cause he makes her feel the way she used to feel

She rushes to his arms, they fall together

She whispers, that its only for a while

She swears that soon shell be coming back forever

She pulls away and leaves him with a smile

You cant hide your lyin eyes

And your smile is a thin disguise

I thought by now youd realize

There aint no way to hide your lyin eyes

She gets up and pours herself a strong one

And stares out at the stars up in the sky

Another night, its gonna be a long one

She draws the shade and hangs her head to cry

She wonders how it ever got this crazy

She thinks about a boy she knew in school

Did she get tired, or did she just get lazy?

Shes so far gone, she feels just like a fool

My, oh my, you sure know how to arrange things

You set it up so well, so carefully

Aint it funny how your new life didnt change things?

Youre still the same old girl you used to be

You cant hide your lyin eyes

And your smile is a thin disguise

I thought by now youd realize

There aint no way to hide your lyin eyes

There aint no way to hide your lyin eyes

Honey, you cant hide your lyin eyes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqccEpqvwPY

〈Lyin’ Eyes〉歌詞內容敘述一個為了重溫激情的女子，背叛丈夫私會情人，嘴上笑說是安慰失意的朋友，但眼神卻已洩漏了一切；她允諾情郎會永遠在一起，卻在分離時亦對自己謊言的矛盾感到煎熬。

談及創作緣由，Glenn Frey描述Eagles 尚未走紅時，樂團成員們到好萊塢的Dan Tana’s 酒吧喝酒，他們看到一位婀娜多姿，打扮入時的年輕女子，卻伴著一位其貌不揚的矮富胖，Glenn Frey 向團員們半開玩笑說：「Look at her, she can’t even hide those lying eyes!（看看她，甚至無法隱藏那雙在說謊的眼神！）」，眾人隨即意識到這是個好靈感，便在餐巾紙上開始寫下歌詞，開啟了〈Lyin’ Eyes〉的創作。

除了歌曲本身，特別有趣的是〈Lyin’ Eyes〉還曾被應用到法律案件上，2008年有位愛爾蘭檢察官，在一起婦人密謀殺害丈夫與兩個兒子的結案聲明中，疑似引用了部分歌詞「You can’t hide those lyin’ eyes……」，讓人不難猜中這位檢察官的音樂品味。