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.After decades of membership, the United Arab Emirates has decided to quit the oil producers’ group, OPEC, in order to focus on “national interests” and forge its own path, it has said. The move is seen as a major blow to the Vienna-based oil cartel – but will not spell the end of it altogether, observers say.

The UAE’s decision to quit comes after years of open dissatisfaction with the oil cartel’s policy of capping members’ production as a way to control prices and stabilise the market..The country has invested billions of dollars in increasing its oil production capacity from 3 to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027. As it has grown its ability to produce more oil, it has demanded a larger quota than has been assigned to it.

The moves also come at a particularly tricky moment as the region, and the rest of the world, grapples with an energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28. Tehran responded by hitting back at Israel, US military assets and other infrastructure in Gulf countries. It also closed off most access to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are shipped from Gulf producers.

Before the start of the war, the UAE’s production capacity had grown to 4.8 million bpd, but under its OPEC agreement, it was only allowed to produce 3.2 million bpd.

Experts say its departure from the cartel is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the market because the UAE’s exports, like those of all its neighbouring countries, are currently constrained by Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

.The UAE has been able to sell some of its oil via the Fujairah terminal, which sits on the Gulf of Oman, allowing it to circumvent the waterway. Last year, it exported 1.7 million bpd of crude oil and refined fuels this way – not enough to meet its ambitions.

This could all change, however, if the conflict ends with an agreement between Iran and the US that allows for the resumption of free navigation through the strait. For now, that is up in the air, as the US continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran, in return, refuses to allow any foreign-flagged ships to transit the strait.

Iran has also indicated that it may wish to maintain its leverage over the strait post-conflict through a system of tolls.

UAE.20260501.正式退出OPEC.之後,國際油價將趨之若騖的上下震盪的局面,.由來已久國際油價,皆以美元計價交易,形成石油美元的霸權,換句話說就是要聽從美國的美元控制,觀察過去的伊拉克,利比亞,委內瑞拉,伊朗,都宣佈要放棄以美元計價交易石油,結果迎來美國與歐洲的戰爭痛擊,202512.美國綁架委內的總統控制該國的石油,不准予售出中國不能以人民幣計價.除此之外202603.美國又聯合以色列攻打伊朗,換句話說要佔領伊朗搶劫石油資源,更不能以人民幣交易石油售賣中國,.如此一來美國的帝國主義霸權作法,令OPEC.成員國心有餘悸,有朝1日若是以人民幣交易石油,就是迎接美國的攻打,如此一來產油國毫無自主權,換句話說被美國控制石油貿易與經濟發展,.再說美國與伊朗發生戰爭,就是錯誤的戰略與戰術,美國設於GCC.海灣6國的軍事基地,皆遭受到伊朗的攻擊損失慘重,其次伊朗的導向飛彈也就是說攻擊到UAE.第一大城市DUBAI.令UAE.的房地產,股價指數爆跌,外資迅速撤離UAE.,觀光客幾乎停擺,.UAE air Emirates.已經停飛全球50 幾個國家..

筆者曾經出差UAE/DUBAI.,公幹,商務考察,如今DUBAI.彷彿變成一座空城,

將近2/3.的人口消失(觀光客,勞工及其他外籍人士).傳聞帆船酒店及其他5星級的觀光旅館房價幾乎是半票優惠如果是會員可以議價再優待餐飲.

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The UAE has officially withdrawn from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its expanded alliance OPEC+.

According to Emirati officials, the decision was made to ensure the country’s long-term economic interests and an independent energy policy.

The main reason for this decision is the long-standing dispute over oil production quotas. The UAE has invested $150 billion to increase its oil production capacity and wants to increase its daily production to 4.8 million barrels, but OPEC restrictions have prevented it from using its full potential.

Sources say that instead of being part of a bloc, the UAE now wants to sell oil on the global market as an independent player in order to further strengthen its economy. Experts are also seeing this move as a sign of growing economic competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

This sudden decision by the Emirates has raised concerns that OPEC’s control over global prices will be weakened, which will have far-reaching effects on the global energy market...

UAE quits OPEC: What that means for the Gulf, energy markets and beyond

UAE signalling intent to pursue independent economic policies and reshape Gulf oil politics..

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阿拉伯聯合大公國宣布20260501退出OPEC及OPEC+

.阿拉伯聯合大公國通訊社.WAM）報導產油國阿聯將於20260501日退出石油輸出國家組織（OPEC）及石油輸出國家組織與夥伴國（OPEC+）聯盟。

WAM的報導提到：「這項決定反映阿聯長期的戰略與經濟願景，以及不斷發展的能源布局。」

UAE退出OPEC .為什麼?.

阿聯與沙國過去在OPEC+會議上不時會發生衝突，阿聯尋求投入新資金以提升石油產能，沙國則敦促該組織應限制供應。

美國對波斯灣國家的軍事支援與油價掛勾，他表示，美國保護OPEC成員國的同時，這些國家卻「藉由抬高油價來剝削我們」。

石油輸出國組織是一個由13個國家組成的政府間國際組織，於1960年9月14日由五個創始國在巴格達成立。如今其總部位於奧地利維也納，目前有12個成員國。截至2019年，OPEC的石油產量占全球產量的38%、全球探明石油儲量的71.8%，可以對先前由「七姊妹」跨國石油公司主導的全球原油價格產生重大影響。

OPEC目前有12成員國，包括阿爾及利亞、剛果、赤道幾內亞、加彭、伊朗、伊拉克、科威特、利比亞、奈及利亞、沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國、委內瑞拉。

.OPEC的波斯灣產油國近期因荷姆茲海峽（Strait of Hormuz）幾乎封閉，而面臨石油出口受阻窘境。

鑒於荷姆茲海峽情勢，阿聯退出OPEC不會對市場造成重大影響。阿聯認為伊朗戰爭引發的短缺需要以靈活彈性因應市場需求，不受OPEC集體決策機制的限制。

The history of OPEC began in September 1960, when five founding members signed their names to a document establishing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and declared the organization open to "any country with a substantial net export of crude petroleum, which has fundamentally similar interests to those of Member Countries." In short order, eight more countries took them up on that offer (then nine, then back to eight again -- see chart below). As a result, OPEC today boasts 13 active members.

..Curiously, some of the worlds biggest oil producers do not belong to OPEC, and never have. Among them: Canada, China, Mexico, Norway, Russia, and the United States itself. And although not a single European nation is an OPEC member, the organization maintains its headquarters in Vienna, Austria.

How OPEC came to be

The founding members formed OPEC in September 1960, at a time when the developing world was rapidly decolonizing post World War II. At that time, seven major oil companies (known as the "Seven Sisters"), all originating in the developed world, controlled about 85% of global oil production. These included:

.OPECs defining objective was to reclaim developing nations oil resources from their former colonizers, and from the companies that would one day become BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Royal Dutch Shell -- for the benefit of their citizens and "in the interest of their national development."

.To this end, OPEC started flexing its muscles in the early 1970s, demanding a greater share of the profits from oil extracted from OPEC countries by the Seven Sisters. Things came to a head in 1973, when Egypts invasion of Israel marked the onset of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war and provided an excuse for OPEC to test its strength. The cartel elected to punish countries supplying arms to Israel, and announced an oil embargo against the U.S. (and allies Portugal, the Netherlands, and South Africa). In addition to banning the sale of oil to these countries, OPEC cut oil production generally, causing oil prices to quadruple in price in relatively short order.

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.OPEC過去最大的作用，不是完全控制油價，而是讓主要產油國維持供應節奏與市場預期。若阿聯酋真的退出，這套靠配額、協調與妥協維繫的機制將出現更明顯裂縫，市場對OPEC穩市能力的信心也會下降。阿聯酋作為OPEC內重要產油國，長期希望擴大產能，2027年衝刺500萬桶/日的目標，也與配額制度形成矛盾。

阿聯酋的決定，背後不只是一句「基於國家利益」。它同時反映海灣內部權力平衡的變化。沙特偏向限產護價，阿聯酋更重視增產與市場份額；兩者雖是盟友，石油政策卻存在深層分歧。當中東局勢升溫、能源安全再度受關注，這種差異就會被迅速放大。

短期來看，阿聯酋退出OPEC未必立刻造成油價暴跌，但會加劇市場波動。真正令交易員不安的，不是油價高低，而是供應規則變得更不確定：誰能增產、誰會減產、誰在衝突中調整出口，都會推高風險溢價。