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What the Pentagon’s New Report on Chinese Military Power Reveals About Capabilities, Context, and Consequences.

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• The bottom line: If Xi and the PLA were in the disarray some imagine, there’s no way China’s military could be developing, deploying, and exercising the way it clearly is.
• Instead, Beijing continues the most dramatic military buildup since World War II. That’s the overwhelming reality we—and Taiwan in particular—ignore at our peril.
• The proof is in the pudding, and the Pentagon just served up the biggest public dessert of the year.China’s military is both corrupt and increasingly capable. Yesterday, the Pentagon released its 24th China Military Power Report since Congress initiated its mandate in 2000, offering revelations unavailable elsewhere. The document reveals new details of the most dramatic military buildup since World War II, ongoing challenges that Chairman Xi Jinping and his party army are addressing with determination, and context to interpret what it all means. The bottom line: endemic corruption and lingering personnel and organizational weaknesses must be weighed against the Chinese Communist Party’s unrivaled ability to marshal resources and its ongoing production and deployment of advanced military systems on an unmatched industrial scale. Xi commands a system riven by brutal elite power struggles, but he is determined to pursue control over Taiwan with an increasingly potent toolkit. With deadly seriousness, he continues to advance sweeping organizational reforms to maximize relevant warfighting capabilities in fulfillment of his Centennial Military Building Goal of 2027, even at the cost of short-term churn and challenges.

The 2024 DOD China Military Power Report

2024.美國公告.《中國軍力報告》(China Military Power)，中國“認為控制現代戰場的資訊頻譜是衝突初期資訊主導地位的關鍵推動因素”。

解放戰略學者專家分析認為軍可能打算將認知域作戰用作一種不對稱能力，阻止美國或第三方參與未來的衝突，或作為一種進攻能力來塑造觀念或分化社會，”這份報告說。報告還補充說，對於中國軍官來說，“不戰而屈人之兵是戰爭的最高境界。”.

美國必須停止對其他國家的網路攻擊,停止利用網絡安全問題抹黑誣陷中國,

中國一再否認此類指控,並指責美國賊喊捉賊。一段時間以來,美方出於地緣政治目的編織散佈各種‘中國黑客威脅’虛假訊息,”中國駐華盛頓大使館發言人在一封電子郵件中告訴美國之音(VOA) ,回應與中國有關的名為“鹽颱風”(Salt Typhoon)的組織入侵美國電信公司的指控。

國際戰略學者專家分析認為,美國按例每年都會公告中國軍力報告,儘管內容是否數實是否,扔然據了解有相當程度的參考性質,至於那些統計數據及圖像分析圖等幕後的情報,蒐集,整理,彙編,是具體性質,召集許多的專家,學者,情報員,經年累月的作業,這樣一來年度報告書的總結,就是繳交成績單,好讓上級首長評估,並且向國會爭取更多的國防預算,至於那些國防武器製造廠所捐贈的研究經費有多少則是機密,所以每當美國公告中國軍力報告書之後,某些武器製造商的武器訂單就會增加? 

美國至今扔在埋頭苦幹,迎頭趕上,所謂的高超音速導向飛彈,向中國,

DF-17.Dongfeng-17 (DF-17) medium-range hypersonic missile,挑戰美國悔不當初放走中國導向飛彈專家錢學森,至今美國的導向飛彈,不僅技術落後,在學術理論上也是如此.美國懼怕2030年中國載入太空船登陸月球成功後,就會建設月球基地,佈署高科技武器,攻擊美國本土,屆時美國毫無招架反制的機會,瞬間就被中國攻擊而消滅,如此一來令美國加速重返登陸月球的計劃,如火如徒進行與中國競爭.

The DF-17 (Dong Feng-17) is a Chinese medium-range missile system equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle. U.S. officials first confirmed the existence of DF-17 prototypes (DF-ZF/Wu-14) in 2014.  ...

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.The Department of Defense has finally released the 2024 version of the China Military Power Report. We will provide additional analysis of the Chinese arsenal in early 2025 but offer these observations for now:

The report estimates that China, as of mid-2024, had more than 600 nuclear warheads in its stockpile, an increase of roughly 100 warheads compared with the estimate for 2023 and about 400 warheads since 2019. As we have stated for several years, this increase is unprecedented for China and contradicts China’s obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. DOD assesses that the Chinese nuclear buildup “almost certainly is due to the PRC’s broader and longer-term perceptions of progressively increased U.S.-PRC strategic competition.”

The breakdown of the DOD estimate comes with considerable uncertainty. It appears to assume that sufficient warheads have been produced to arm many – perhaps up to one third – of the silos in the three new ICBM silo fields in northern China. Different assumptions about how those silos will be armed greatly influence warhead projections:

Different assumptions about how China will arm it’s missile silos can significantly influence warhead number projections.

Matching the warhead estimate with the known force structure also depends on how many of the new liquid-fuel silos under construction in the mountains of central/southeastern China are operational, and how many of missiles carry multiple warheads. Other variables are how many warheads are assigned to the DF-26 IRBM launchers (probably not all of them), how many of the six SSBNs have been upgraded to the JL-3 SLBM and whether it is assigned multiple warheads, and how many DF-41 ICBM launchers are operational and how many warheads each missile is assigned.

As in previously years, the DOD report misleadingly describes the Chinese warheads as “operational.” This gives the false impression that they’re all deployed like Russia and U.S. nuclear warheads on their operational forces and has already created confusion in the public debate by causing some to compare all Chinese warheads with the portion of US warheads that are deployed. What DOD calls China’s “operational” warheads is equivalent to DOD’s entire nuclear warhead stockpile, whether deployed, operational, or reserve.

Except for perhaps a small number, the vast majority of Chinese warheads are thought to be in storage and not deployed on the launchers. This situation may be changing with a higher readiness level and emerging launch-on-warning capability.

The report repeats earlier projections that China might have over 1,000 warheads by 2030 but does not mention previous projections of 1,500 warheads by 2035. But this expansion requires additional plutonium production. The report confirms that China “has not produced large quantities of plutonium for its weapons program since the early 1990s” and anticipates that it “probably will need to begin producing new plutonium this decade to meet the needs of its expanding nuclear stockpile.”.............................................................

The 2024 China Military Power Report confirms reports by FAS, Ben Reuter, and Decker Eveleth about the modernization of the DF-5 silos in central/southeastern China.

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