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2024 中國北京香山論壇啟示錄2024.Beijing Xiangshan Forum offers platform to address global challenges
2024/09/19 12:24:12瀏覽20|回應0|推薦1

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.2024.本屆論壇以“共筑和平、共享未來”為主題,來自100余個國家、國際組織官方代表及專家學者和各國觀察員等出席。

  論壇舉辦期間,與會人員圍繞“安全合作與亞太繁榮穩定”“多極化與國際秩序走向”“‘全球南方’與世界和平發展”“國際機制與全球安全治理”等議題展開交流,就“東盟與亞太地區安全架構”“維護東北亞安全穩定”“歐洲安全走向”“中東和平願景”“中美正確相處之道”“新興技術向善”“國際軍控的未來”“武裝沖突中的人道主義危機”等熱點問題進行深入探討。.

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中國政府與解放軍在國際社會南方國家以及重要友邦間,其影響力確實相當可觀;但以歐美為首已開發國家與特定國際組織本身及其成員國,其所派遣與會成員不論規格及地位都會相對降低。國際社會相互往來是否要派高官要員出席盛會,確實具有重要指標意義;由美國僅派出副助卿層級官員與會,就可看出華盛頓無意在此種論壇中認真捧場,派遣高階政務首長為北京營造聲勢。

 

此外除論壇主題足以證明北京面對國際社會整體格局有所變化外,依據論壇議程曾就安全合作與亞太繁榮穩定、多極化與國際秩序走向、全球南方與世界和平發展以及國際機制與全球安全治理等議題進行交流;更深入探討東盟與亞太地區安全架構、維護東北亞安全穩定、歐洲安全走向、中東和平願景、「中」美正確相處之道、新興技術向善、國際軍控的未來以及武裝衝突中的人道主義危機等熱門課題。

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在這次會議上,中共國防部長董軍和外交部副部長陳曉東在會上講話中都強調「和平」,並罕見地沒有提到問題。特別是董軍在今年的演講中,未以「個別國家」等措詞暗批美國。

中央軍委副主席張又俠2023年與會時曾說,對台灣所謂「分裂」出去,中共軍隊「都絕不答應、絕不手軟」。已落馬的中共前防長魏鳳和在2019年出席論壇會議時也說,「搞分裂只能是死路一條。」董軍今年6月出席新加坡「香格里拉對話」時,還語帶威脅地說,誰敢把台灣從中國「分裂出去」,必將「粉身碎骨、自取滅亡」,但現在語調明顯有所軟化。不過,綜合多家媒體報導,中共軍事科學院前副院長何雷9月12日與會時則警告,(中共)將粉碎任何「外國敵對勢力侵犯主權領土」的行為。何雷還聲稱,台灣領導人如果在安全上靠美國會「人財兩空」。

今年以來,美中有多次軍事溝通,美國白宮國安顧問文(Jake Sullivan)2024/8月底訪華后,美中恢復至戰區層級對話。

在香山論壇舉行前,美國印太司令部司令、海軍上將(Samuel Paparo)與中共南部戰區司令員吳亞男上將進行了視頻通話。美國國防部證實,吳亞男近日將出席美國印太司令部在夏威夷舉辦的一次防務會議。

不過,美國方面一直希望推動美軍印太司令部和負責台灣事務的中共東部戰區領導人直接對話,至今無果

Taiwan Vows to Defend Itself Amid U.S. Reversal, Heres How Much Stronger  China Is - Newsweek

國際戰略專家學者研究分析認為,如今國際局勢變化多端,中國的國防軍事武力強勢崛起, 已經成為世界性第3大軍事強國,美國及西方國家認為,中國軍隊已有實力介入國際性的軍事衝突,然而中國確是"按兵不動",等待最佳時機才出手,一招讓敵人斃命失敗,尤其是未來的台灣海峽兩岸的軍事衝突,美國與其他國家介入,企圖挑戰中國的力量,無益於是以失敗告終,有來無回,中國佔有地理位置的優勢,美國及西方國家增援台灣,則無異於自投羅網,無法長久進行遙遠的海外戰爭,誰優誰劣可想而知..

.Tension across the Taiwan Strait has increased since Taiwans pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the Presidential elections for the third consecutive time in January 2024. The victory of the DPPs Lai Ching-te clearly signalled that the people of Taiwan do not want to reunify, or more correctly, be merged with the communist Peoples Republic of China. After a silence of over 25 hours during which Beijing made no comment on Lai Ching-te’s victory, it started flexing its military muscle and began sending large numbers of Navy warships and Air Force aircraft in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan, thereby signalling it was keeping open its military options for the reunification with Taiwan. Many of the Chinese aircraft crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait.

 

.War over Taiwan starts to seem probable, not just possible

Why China and the US are so obsessed with Taiwan | Mapped Out?

The US-China superpower rivalry is on full display in Taiwan. Beijing wants control of the island and is willing to use force to get it. Washington has been ambiguous about how it would respond but is expanding its military presence in the region. Taiwan is at the center of the US first island chain strategy to contain China. A standoff seems almost unavoidable. But what factors give the tiny island such an outsize importance for both superpowers? And why is neither side backing down? We speak to foreign policy experts Victor Gao (Center for China and Globalization) and David Sacks (Council on Foreign Relations) and find out what people in Taiwan think of the tensions.

Beijing Xiangshan Forum offers platform to address global challenges.

The 11th Beijing Xiangshan Forum.

Theme

Promoting Peace for a Shared Future

Introduction

 

The 11th Beijing Xiangshan Forum will be held at the Beijing International Convention Center from September 12th to 14th. The theme of this year’s forum is “Promoting Peace for a Shared Future”. The forum includes welcome dinner, opening ceremony, 4 plenary sessions, and 8 simultaneous special sessions. The plenary sessions focus on topics such as the role of “Global South” countries in international security, improving international security mechanisms, maintaining peace and development in the Asia-Pacific region, and achieving a balanced and orderly multipolar world. The simultaneous special sessions cover a range of topics such as regional hotspots, emerging technologies, arms control, humanitarian issues, and more. Additionally, there will be special activities including special speech, leading experts’ dialogue, and closed-door seminars.

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Chinas top security and defense forum, the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, kicked off on Thursday with a series of high-end interviews on topics such as the Global Security Initiative, the Global South, the security in the Asia-Pacific and the China-US relations, as a record-breaking number of participants from more than 100 countries and international organizations gathered in Beijing under the theme of the event, "Promoting Peace for a Shared Future."

The 11th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, scheduled from Thursday to Saturday in the golden autumn of Beijing, is being attended by more than 500 representatives from official delegations of more than 100 countries and international organizations, in addition to over 200 Chinese and foreign experts and scholars. 

More than 30 defense ministers and military chiefs will attend the meeting alongside high-ranking officials from international and regional organizations.

The number and level of participants has exceeded all previous years with increasingly wider representation, according to the events organizer.

Multiple high-end interviews took place on the first day of the forum, not only focusing on regional security such as the security in the Asia-Pacific, China-US relations and the security in Europe, but also gave global perspectives in terms of the Global Security Initiative, the Global South and international rules. Young military officers and scholars from many countries also got a chance to hold a seminar to discuss approaches to addressing international conflicts, while leading experts had a dialogue on AI security.

It is a good opportunity to share impressions about different countries and perspectives, and to do so alongside military officials and scholars. Such chances are rare, which makes this opportunity even more important, John Richard Waters III, managing director for the China Practice at Eurasia Group and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State of the US, told the Global Times on the sidelines of the forum on Thursday.

Attila Demkó, head of the Centre for Geopolitics at Mathias Corvinus College of Hungary, believes China is an extremely important player in global security. 

He told the Global Times that the Beijing Xiangshan Forum will provide an opportunity to take into consideration what China is saying, including Chinas positions on key global issues such as the Ukraine conflict.

Agreeing with Chinas vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind, Lawrence Freeman, a political economic analyst for Africa, told the Global Times on Thursday that Chinas initiatives, which are to modernize and develop the economy, expand agriculture, and improve the standard of living, are essential goals that all human beings on this planet, regardless of ethnicity, religion or geographic location, strive for.

In the coming two days, the forum will convene four plenary sessions on Security Cooperation and Asia-Pacific Prosperity and Stability, Multipolarity and the Evolving International Order, Global South and World Peaceful Development, as well as International Mechanisms and Global Security Governance. 

Eight special sessions will also be convened covering security topics related to ASEAN, Northeast Asia, Europe, the Middle East, China-US relations, new technologies, arms control and humanitarian crises.

Hot topics

Chinese Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun is expected to deliver a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the forum on Friday.

Multiple forum participants from home and abroad told the Global Times that the Beijing Xiangshan Forum lays importance on the Global South, as it gives smaller developing countries, viewed by China as friends, a platform to address their security and development concerns.

The forum is not only a platform for the South-South, but also South-North cooperation, observers said, as this years event further expanded the scale of participation from developed countries and emerging powers, with European and American scholars accounting for about one third of participating foreign scholars, according to the event organizer.

When discussing security in the Asia-Pacific, China-US relations, or security issues closely linked to China in general, hot topics such as the Taiwan question and the South China Sea issue attracted particular attention from forum participants and the media.

Lieutenant General He Lei, former vice president of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), reiterated at the forum that there is only one China in the world, the government of the Peoples Republic of China is the sole legal government representing China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinas territory.

National reunification is inevitable, and the PLA has firm determination, strong will, powerful capabilities and effective means in resolutely defending national sovereignty, security, territorial integrity and unity, He told the Global Times, also slamming the US arms sales to the island of Taiwan, which he said cannot change the inevitable failure of the "Taiwan independence" forces regardless of their quantity or types.

On the South China Sea issue, He pointed out that it was because of the Philippines frequent provocative moves on Chinese islands and reefs that have escalated tensions.

With the Philippines also sending experts and scholars to the forum, it is a good chance to have more in-depth and rational discussions and further clarify Chinas principled positions,

 

 

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