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| 2011/09/22 06:35:04瀏覽1303｜回應1｜推薦12 | |
Know your place: we're attendants to Chinese superpower By Bernald Salt
LET'S talk of the demographic behemoth. Let's talk of China. For the better part of a millennium, and possibly for longer, China has existed as the largest single co-ordinated collection of humanity on the planet.
讓我們聊一下中國這個擁有眾多人口的龐然大物。作為地球上最大的單一人類集合，中國已經存在了千年以上，甚至時間可能會更久遠。 New census figures place China's population at 1.34 billion, or at almost one-fifth of mankind. India, the beast in waiting, holds 1.19 billion. But whereas China's growth is slowing (a mere six million per year), India's continues to surge (16 million annually). It is closing the population gap on China at a rate of 10 million a year. 最新的人口普查數據顯示，中國人口達到了13.4億人，這幾乎是全世界人口的1/5。印度，這個蓄勢待發的猛獸，擁有11.9億的人口。但是，中國的人口增長正在放緩 (年增僅有600萬)，而印度卻在持續飆升(年增1600萬)，兩者的人口差距正在以1000萬人/年的相對速度而縮小。 But this is not a story about India, it is a story about China and its ascendancy. 但是我們今天談的並不是印度，而是中國及其崛起。 China's gross domestic product when measured in US dollars, according to the latest estimates by the International Monetary Fund, is about the $US6000 billion ($5870bn) mark, or roughly equivalent to one-third the US economy. 根據國際貨幣基金組織的最新估算，中國的GDP將近6萬億美元(5.87萬億美元)(註2)，大約是美國的1/3。 At the beginning of the 21st century, China's economy was one-fifth the US economy and in 1990 it was one-twentieth. 在21世紀初期和1990年代，該比例分別為1/5和1/20。 On this trajectory China will control the largest economic machine on the planet, and in history, at some stage during the late 2020s. But the timeframe to China's primacy could be shorter when output is measured by purchase price parity rather than by US dollars. 照此趨勢，中國最晚會在2030之前掌控這個世界上最為龐大的經濟機器。如果按照實際購買力而非美元來計算，中國成為經濟霸權的時間會更短。 And consider this. At no point during the Cold War did the economy of the USSR ever exceed one-tenth the output of the US economy. 想想冷戰時期，蘇聯的經濟規模從來未曾超過美國的1/10。 China has achieved more in the past 15 years than the Soviets achieved in the 45 years following World War II. And yet Russia was very much perceived as a strategic threat to the US and to the Western Alliance in the mid to late 20th century. And all this from what was in effect a modest economic base. 而中國在過去的15年之中所取得的成就卻比蘇聯在二戰結束後的45年之中所取得的還要高。由於在20世紀中期到晚期這段時間內，蘇聯仍被美國和它的西方盟友們視為戰略威脅。因此，它事實上也只能算是個中等規模的經濟體。 But the resources that the Soviets did control were managed to compete with the West in the military, in space and even in the sporting arenas. 但是，蘇聯利用手中的所操控的資源與西方國家在軍事，航空甚至是運動領域展開了競爭。 On the other hand a free-market economy is far less disciplined in its allocation of resources: money and effort can be directed to the pursuit of leisure and pleasure rather than to the delivery of infrastructure, power and steel. 在另外一方面，自由市場經濟使得資源在統籌分配方面少了甚多的束縛，其結果造成：國家的資金和精力更多地被耗費在了物質享受方面而不是在基礎建設，能源，鋼鐵方面。 On this basis it is reasonable to question whether the 2010s will witness the transfer of the planet's primary economic force from US hands to China. The last such transition was from the collective powers of Western Europe to America in the early 20th century. The American empire, if measured solely on the ability to amass and control the economic resources that might be required in conflict, will last for maybe 100 years. 有鑒於此，質疑“在2010年代我們是否會見證世界的經濟強權從美國落入中國之手？”這個問題似乎就顯得合情合理了。上一次世界經濟霸權從歐洲交棒到美國發生在20世紀早期。如果單單只是看經濟資源(盡管沖突不絕)的積累和掌控能力的話，美國這個龐大的帝國將稱霸一個世紀。 Perhaps this is about as good as it gets in the modern era for a globally dominant economy: about a century at the top before new forces combine to present a genuine contender. 但在美國掌控全球經濟主導權將近一個世紀的今天，出現一個真正強有力的競爭對手也許不是件壞事。 My point is that the rise and dominance of China is much closer than is suggested by the raw numbers. A planned economy that is reasonably well galvanised across its people is a formidable economic and cultural force. How long do you suppose it will be before the average Australian knows the odd word of Mandarin or the most fashionable precincts of Shanghai and Beijing? 我認為：中國崛起和稱霸的速度遠比紙面上的數字所顯示的來得還要快。它的那個能調動國民萬眾一心的計劃經濟是一種令人生畏的經濟和文化力量。在我們一般的澳大利亞民眾想學一些零星的漢語普通話詞匯或是開始關註最潮的上海，北京那邊的時事之前，大家認為這個時間要多久？ The role of Australia in this Asian hemisphere is becoming clear. We are to be attendants to an emerging empire: providers of food, energy, resources, commodities and suppliers of services such as education, tourism, gambling/gaming, health (perhaps) and lifestyle property. 澳大利亞在亞洲的腳色正變得越來越清楚。我們將會變成一個新興帝國的隨從，成為它在食品，能源，資源，商品方面的提供者，以及教育，觀光，博彩，醫療和生活方面的服務供應商。 And why not. After all, Russian billionaires do not live in Moscow, they live in the lifestyle city of London. (Many prefer Belgravia, I hear.) 為什麽不呢？畢竟俄羅斯的億萬富豪們不在莫斯科住，他們通常居住在時尚之都倫敦(我聽說他們一般是在Belgravia上流的社區)。 The Chinese middle class - now estimated by Euromonitor at close to 10 per cent of the population - will look to mitigate sovereign risk by diverting funds to Australian and other lifestyle property. 根據Euromonitor的估算，占將近全國人口1/10的中國的中產階級正試圖通過將資金轉移到我們這裏的方式來降低他們在中國的風險。 China is now Australia's leading supplier of overseas students (150,000) and in 2008 it replaced Japan as our single most important export market, mostly through iron ore, coal and gas: the stuff that underpins, if not delivers, middle-class prosperity. 中國大陸現今已是澳大利亞最大的海外學生來源國(15萬人)，並在2008年取代日本成為了我們最重要的單一出口市場。我們通過輸出鐵礦石、煤和天然氣來推動中國中產階級的快速發展。 In previous eras global-power transition followed a contest such as a war. Not so in the 2010s. 在歷史上，霸權的更替通常伴隨著激烈的沖突，如：戰爭。但這不會出現在2010年到2020年。 China will silently slip past the US in its economic capacity, but it may not be until the late 2020s that the new order becomes clear. 中國的經濟實力將會默默地超越美國，也許不必等到2030年，全球經濟新的排序就會一目了然。 With the fall of Singapore in February 1942 Australians realised that Britain could no longer defend the extremities of its empire and that it had been unable to do so for much of the 20th century. It's just that the issue was not tested until World War II.
隨著1942年新加坡的淪陷(被日本侵占)，澳大利亞人意識到大英帝國無法再對它的成員提供保護，實際上在20世紀的大部分時間它都是如此。只不過這個事實直到第二次世界大戰才得以印證。 How will we know that China has usurped the US as the planet's most powerful economy? Perhaps it will be through the projection of naval power via the acquisition of an aircraft carrier. (The US has 20 but that's not the point. China now has one.) 怎麽做我們才會知道中國已經從美國手中奪走全球經濟霸主的地位？或許，我們能通過中國打造了一艘航空母艦來加強其海軍實力的做法而略知一二(要知道美國已經擁有20艘的航空母艦，中國現在才只有1艘，不過這並非問題關鍵所在)。 Perhaps it will be the establishment of supply lines that connect China with places such as Australia, but also with other resource-rich nations such as Canada, Namibia, Chile and South Africa. These will be Australia's natural competitors in the coming decade. 也許，就像澳大利亞一樣，還有其他一些資源豐富的國家，如：加拿大，納米比亞，智利和南非，也將會與中國建立起能源供給專線。 Perhaps it will be through the type of cultural imperialism that the Americans perfected so well through television, Hollywood and corporate infiltration. If this is to be the case then the opportunities for Australian business are profound. 也許中國會像美國人那樣，通過它的電視，電影和企業的滲透，來實行中式文化的侵略(文化帝國主義)。如果是這樣的話，那麼澳大利亞將會擁有無限的商機。 But while the China trajectory may well be a compelling story it is also by no means assured. The 2010s are likely to deliver even more prosperity to the Chinese, who will convert manufacturing wealth into consumer goods such as mobile phones, motorbikes, air-conditioning units (for all) and perhaps also for meat-based protein as opposed to rice. 中國今後的發展也許會很輝煌，但或許並非一定是如此。在21世紀的第2個十年裏面，中國可能會更加繁榮，它會將原材料制造成像手機，摩托車，空調等等消費品，也可能動物蛋白對稻米。 The challenges for China in the new century are twofold: to navigate the after-effects of the one-child policy from the 1970s which is now diminishing the labour market; and to manage the possibility of a rising market for dissent. Beyond consumer goods in the hierarchy of human aspiration is the desire for freedom of expression. It is this concept that delivered the Arab Spring of 2011. 在新的世紀，中國將面臨雙重挑戰。其一是：由於70年代開始的獨生子女政策而引起的日漸萎縮的勞動力市場。其二是：在管理其日益壯大的經濟過程中，如何應對出現的異議。另外，除去對消費品的需求外，中國人也同樣渴求意誌的自由表達。就像發生在今年的春天的阿拉伯國家的茉莉花運動所傳達的信息那樣。 A galvanised nation is a nation that projects power beyond its numbers; a dissent-ridden nation - perhaps for all the "right" reasons - is less effective than its numbers would suggest. There is a very different future for Australia from the 2020s onwards depending on how China manages the challenges. 一個被組織動員起來的國家(非民主國家)所能施展的力量將超越其數字本身。而一個受累於不同意見的國家(民主國家)，其效率會低於數字暗示的那樣。中國如何應對挑戰將決定澳大利亞在21世紀第二个十年截然不同的未來。 Based on Bernard Salt's contribution to Australia & China: Future Partnerships in 2011, released today by KPMG and University of NSW China Studies Centre. Download from www.kpmg.com.au at http://tinyurl.com/6fa5z7e;
p.s. 以上文章引自9月21日出版的澳大利亞人報 The Australian (註1)，作者為Bernard Salt,供職於國際四大會計事務所之一的畢馬威會計師事務所KPMG。 *註1: 澳大利亞報紙The Australian是澳大利亞最具影響力的全國性報紙，創刊於1964年，隸屬於默多克 Rupert Murdoch 的新聞集團 News Corp.，報社總部位於悉尼。該報平日版的發行量為13萬份，擁有讀者40多萬，周末版的發行量為32萬份，讀者達90多萬人。 為了吸引年輕讀者，報社開設了免費網站，供讀者瀏覽，並在網上設立意見箱和評論欄，拓寬同讀者的聯系渠道。
*註2: 在此文章中，“億” = 10的8次方。 Billion = 10的9次方 (十億)。 “萬億” = 10的12次方。“兆” = 億億 = 10的16次方。 這個用法在古代中國文獻《孫子算經》中記載：“凡大數之法，萬萬曰億，萬萬億曰兆，萬萬兆曰京，萬萬京曰垓，萬萬垓曰秭，萬萬秭曰穰，萬萬穰曰溝，萬萬溝曰澗，萬萬澗曰正，萬萬正曰載。” *註3: 此篇英文文章由本人翻譯。由於本人主修數理科，如在翻譯過程中出現文法或翻譯錯誤，還請各位不吝指教，多謝。
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