'Old Europe' tilting toward U.S.

Fresh leadership offers hope of a revived Atlantic alliance.

By Kim Murphy, Times Staff Writer
June 1, 2007

LONDON — France's new president goes jogging in an NYPD T-shirt. Britain's prime minister-apparent likes to vacation on Cape Cod. And Germany's chancellor once got an impromptu back rub from President Bush.
Welcome to the new "old Europe."
At the beginning of 2003, Washington had all but written off the historical power brokers of continental Western Europe. France and Germany, dead set against going to war in Iraq, were "a problem," then-Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said. The Bush administration's favor had tilted toward the east, where it found solid support among the European Union's newcomers.
Four years later, a new set of players emerging on the old Europe bench could tip the balance back toward the Atlantic. Britain, France and Germany are fielding potentially the most pro-U.S. group of leaders to emerge in Western Europe in years.
"In many ways, the galaxy of international leaders has never been better for the United States," said Erik Goldstein, head of the international relations department at Boston University.
Nicolas Sarkozy's election as French president, Angela Merkel's earlier debut as German chancellor and Gordon Brown's expected succession as British prime minister bring into play three leaders who share a commitment to engagement with the United States and ideological orientations that more or less coincide with Washington's on issues as far-ranging as liberal economics and Israel.
Four years after some Americans were debating whether to change the name of French fries because of then-French President Jacques Chirac's fierce opposition to certain Washington policies, his successor, through most of his campaign, was dubbed "Sarko the American."
Brown, a brilliant and bookish student of policy long fascinated by U.S. political thought, counts among his friends Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.
Merkel grew up in the "new" Europe of East Germany with a penchant for Western bluejeans and has made repairing the connections between Washington and Berlin a starting point for her administration.
"On balance, the changing of the guard is good for the United States, and good for the Atlantic relationship," said Charles A. Kupchan, director of Europe studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "The U.S. now has in Paris and in Berlin leaders that are pro-American and pragmatic.
"I don't want to suggest that we're out of the woods on the Atlantic relationship," he said. "I think it's going to be very rocky. But rocky is better than where we've been, which is in the abyss."
The caveats, and they are many: The emergence of a new triumvirate in Europe depends first on whether leaders succeed over the next few months in negotiating a new European Union Constitution aimed at streamlining lethargic institutions and crafting a uniform voice for European policy, a goal Europeans argue benefits the U.S. as much as it does Europe.
And Washington has no illusions that Euro-American relations will do an overnight about-face. For one thing, the departure of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, expected June 27, means the loss of the most reliable U.S. ally on Iraq.
"Blair was quite unusual in saying to Bush, 'You know, where the war on terror is concerned, whatever you do, I'm with you.' I can't think of any British prime minister that has done that," said Christopher Meyer, who was Britain's ambassador to the U.S. until 2003.
Brown's views are not yet clear on a wide range of foreign policy issues that probably will determine the agenda for the foreseeable future. The treasury chief has made his mark with Britain's booming economy but has said next to nothing about how he would handle Europe's substantial energy dependence on Russia. Likewise, his views on the Arab-Israeli conflict and tough sanctions against Iran are all largely unknown.
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The 'poodle' image

Brown, who knows he has to distance himself from his predecessor's image as Bush's "poodle," has said that British "national interest" will be a component in the relationship with the United States.
He emphasized that the relationship between a British prime minister and a U.S. president "must and ought to be a very strong one," keeping in mind that "the values that the American people hold and the values that the British people hold — our belief in liberty, the dignity of the individual, our belief that we should work together in making progress in dealing with common problems — these values have been shared right across the decades, right across the centuries, whichever prime minister, whichever president is in power."
In any case, most analysts say, no full detente with Europe is possible until Bush leaves the White House.
"He's deeply unpopular, and he's a lame duck," said Michael Cox, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics.
"What's the point in spending political capital in trying to build a partnership with a president who, A) they frankly don't like; B) whose policies they oppose; and C) who's going to be out of power in another two years? Bush's unpopularity in Europe is now permanent."
The general pro-American leanings of the new European kids on the block are philosophical, not personal, and they are liable to ebb and flow with the changing tides of U.S. policy.
In France, Sarkozy already has distanced himself from Gaullist tradition, which asserted independence from the United States and cultivation of strong ties to the Arab world, and charted a new rhetorical course by emphasizing human rights as a force in foreign policy.
He backed up that talk two weeks ago by appointing as foreign minister Bernard Kouchner, a Socialist humanitarian activist whose views toward the U.S. and Israel resemble the president's. But Sarkozy also has made it clear that he does not intend a complete about-face from decades of French policy.
On election night, "he reiterated French friendship for the USA, but I don't know any politician who says otherwise," said Pascal Boniface, director of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris.
"He also put on the table the major challenge of global warming, and says it will be a priority for France, while we know that the current U.S. government is more or less reticent about this issue," he said. "So we return to the well-known approach of 'alliance but not alignment.' "

Constitution question

Merkel has worked to repair the damaged relations between Berlin and Washington over the Iraq war. She has said she will not send German troops to Iraq and has chided Washington for its treatment of prisoners at the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, but she also has increased German military involvement in Afghanistan.
Preferring pragmatism and instinct over rhetorical flourish and grand plans, Merkel is pushing for a unified Europe that by definition will be less rooted in the traditional German-French axis, encompassing the voices of all 27 EU members.
"It has become a totemic issue: Let's finally solve the constitution question. Otherwise we have to ask ourselves, are we still capable of acting as an EU?" said Jan Techau, head of the European program at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin.
Much will depend on how Washington chooses to frame the issues with which it will engage Europe in the coming years, European analysts said.
"If the U.S. decides to have a policy that is seen as too unilateral, or multilateral in form but not substance, I think things will not change," Boniface said. "The new French president will bring a new style to French diplomacy, but French interests will not change.
"Everything will depend on what our partners do."

kim.murphy@latimes.com

Times staff writers Jeffrey Fleishman and Christian Retzlaff in Berlin and Sebastian Rotella and Achrene Sicakyuz in Paris contributed to this report.

(INFOBOX BELOW)
Fresh attitudes
Nicolas Sarkozy
The new president of France, who has been called "Sarko the American," is believed to want "alliance but not alignment" with Washington. He wants good relations but differs with U.S. policy on global warming.

Gordon Brown

Britain's Treasury chief, who is expected to become prime minister soon, has not made his views clear on many foreign policy issues. He says U.S. and British values "have been shared right across the decades, right across the centuries."

Angela Merkel

The German chancellor has said she will not send troops to Iraq and has criticized the U.S. prison in Cuba. But she has worked to repair U.S. relations damaged by the Iraq war and has increased military involvement in Afghanistan.

舊歐洲新領袖 英法德向美靠攏

布朗、沙克吉、梅克爾 美籍好友多、愛穿牛仔褲…大西洋兩岸關係不再緊繃

編譯陳世欽／報導

法國新任總統沙克吉、即將接任英國首相的布朗以及德國總理安姬拉‧梅克爾這三位領袖，共同構成全新的「舊歐洲」。

二○○三年初，華府當局片面抹殺歷史悠久的西歐強權地位。當時的美國國防部長倫斯斐表示，堅決反對美英向伊拉克動武的法德兩國是「問題」。布希政府轉而向東物色盟友，結果獲得歐盟新會員國的堅定支持。四年後，在舊歐洲崛起的新領袖極可能將權力天平轉回大西洋。英、法、德可能出現多年來立場最親美的新領導人。 

波士頓大學國際關係中心主任高德斯坦說：「對美國而言，現有的國際級領袖組合再好也不過。」

洛杉磯時報一日報導，沙克吉、梅克爾、布朗均矢言與美國積極交往，對於自由經濟、以色列等多項重要課題的意識形態取向也與美國相符。沙克吉明顯親美；布朗欣賞美國的政治思想，美國民主黨籍參議員愛德華‧甘迺迪、前聯邦準備理事會主席葛林斯班均是他的好友。梅克爾則在東德的「新」歐洲成長，喜愛西式牛仔褲，並將修好德美雙邊關係列為首要施政重點。

外交關係協會歐洲研究中心主【任】卡普坎表示：「整體而言，英、法、德領導人有益美國與大西洋兩岸的關係。法、德兩國領導人是親美的務實派。這不意味大西洋兩岸關係從此將雨過天青，事實上可能遍布荊棘，然而已非以往的高度緊繃可比。」

歐洲是否出現新三強，繫於歐洲各國領袖能否近期內推出歐盟新憲，美國對美歐雙邊關係則不抱幻想，因為英國首相布萊爾本月底下台，意味美國將失去一位最堅定可靠的伊拉克事務盟友。

外界對於布朗的外交政策理念所知不多。在他擔任英國財政大臣期間，英國人得以享有難得的長期經濟繁榮，然而他迄未說明打算如何處理歐洲對俄羅斯的能源依賴。此外，布朗也仍未說明他對以阿衝突，以及對伊朗實施強硬制裁的見解。他深知必須與布希保持距離，以免落得對布希「盲從」的批評。他曾經表示，在與美國交往的過程中，英國領導人必須捍衛英國的國家利益。

多數專家學者認為，在布希卸任前，美國與歐洲的關係不可能完全緩和。