Taiwan's opposition

Just ask the public

The DPP chooses a promising candidate for the presidency

Apr 28th 2011 | TAIPEI | from the print edition

WITH fewer than nine months until he seeks re-election, Ma Ying-jeou’s life has just got harder. Not only will he be running against a Taiwanese economy which, despite booming trade with China, shows stubbornly flat wages and high inequality—factors that have caused the president’s popularity to slump. Now a once impeccable Mr Ma faces a formidable opponent for the presidency. On April 27th the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said that its nominee was Tsai Ing-wen, the party’s popular chairwoman. She becomes Taiwan’s first female presidential candidate.

Ms Tsai, an academic and former minister in charge of thinking about how to deal with China, took the DPP chair nearly three years ago at certainly the lowest point in the party’s history. Charges of large-scale corruption were swirling around the DPP’s previous leader, Chen Shui-bian, a hardline pro-independence firebrand whose two terms as president from 2000-08 had alienated the public. He was later jailed. Under Ms Tsai’s leadership, the party has been able to distance itself from Mr Chen, and even reinvent itself as a party of competence as well as reasoned thinking towards the mainland. In key municipal elections last November, it ended up winning more individual votes than Mr Ma’s Kuomintang (KMT). The DPP also had landslide wins in a few parliamentary by-elections to boot.

Perhaps even more worrying for Mr Ma, the opposition chose its candidate by asking the public’s opinion. It employed five polling companies to ask people about the popularity of three DPP presidential contenders and how they fared next to Mr Ma. Both Ms Tsai and Su Tseng-chang, a former prime minister who trailed her by a whisker, would beat Mr Ma in an election, the pollsters deemed.

Related topics

Taiwanese politics

 China

 Democratic Progressive Party (Taiwan)

 Asia-Pacific politics

 Chinese politics

Ms Tsai’s strength is that she comes across as a member of a new generation, both within her party and the country as a whole. She appeals to young Taiwanese and she has become a champion of environmental causes. Partly because of opposition pressure, Mr Ma withdrew his backing last week for a huge petrochemicals plant proposed near delicate wetlands in Changhua county on the west coast.

Perhaps most importantly, Ms Tsai favours moderate policies towards the mainland, in contrast to Mr Chen’s belligerent approach. She has even dared to chide as “revolutionaries” some senior DPP hands, implacably opposed to China.

Still, although Ms Tsai’s stance may well appeal to middle-of-the-road voters, it is unlikely to be accepted by China. The mainland’s leaders insist that progress in relations across the Taiwan Strait requires the Taiwanese government to accept the “1992 consensus”. In this both sides agree that they loosely belong to China, while disagreeing on the definition of what that means. Ms Tsai rejects the consensus, dismissing such an approach as belonging to an earlier, more dogmatic era. Already, China has reacted testily to her nomination.

Unlike members of the DPP, Mr Ma is able to talk to China. Increasingly, though, Taiwanese see this as a weakness rather than the strength he hoped for. Perceptions are growing that Mr Ma’s economic policies, including a cross-strait pact on free trade signed last June, benefit large corporations more than ordinary folk. On April 22nd Taiwan’s election commission set the date for combined presidential and parliamentary elections for January 14th next year. That does not give Mr Ma much time to turn those perceptions around.

＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝

Just ask the public

May 4th 2011, 16:35

I don't expect there will be a good-looking election in 2012.

In 2000, Taiwanese showed high degree of democracy, exciting many world leaaders and numerous people all over the world. Marvelous Chen Shui-Bian and Lu Show-Lian(Anne Lu) established the first true brilliant democratic Chinese government (not ugly Lee Tun-Hua). I was only a 14-year-old child and felt happy for I could see the second rank democracy in Asia(the first was Japan). And because I have been supporting and highly respecting the protesters and lawyers in "Kao-Hsiung Incident" in 1979's winter for a long time, now I feel more and more unfamiliar with Taiwan's recent political arena. Some this event's figures are forced to jail or ignored by one logic "the alteration of generation".

Taiwanese seems not to take their experiences into consideration, forget too many their(our? I don't think so) history. Ma Ying-Jeou's faked face is more and more unpopular with Taiwanese while Tsai Ing-Wen's political place is very different from other figures in near 10 years. Interestingly, Tsai always depend on other comrades' failure letting herself again and again gain her power after in 2008 Hsieh Chung-Ting(Frank Hsieh) couldn't succeed Chen Shui-Bian. On the other side, being an authority's leader, Ma never does right thing in dealing with inner or foreign affairs from this to that--he lacks of the proficient democratic principle Taiwanese need. Taiwan's two-party structure isn't enough stable to support inexperienced candidator or one that boost anything he wants and does all day.

    Recommended

    18

    Report

    Permalink

Just ask the public

May 4th 2011, 16:36

Third, as this analyst talks about the importance and compare between two party's "mainland policy", on the surface Ma's is better than Tsai's. But beauty is only skin deep. Ma is still hesitating his policy because he views his so-called sovereignty--"the Republic of China"--as the other solution to unify all China and wrongly think "one china, two interpretations" can cheat on all of Beijing's Chinese Communist Party's Politburo. According to 2008's CCP's central committee's one of decision, by 2016, in any form CCP will and must control Taiwan island, and appoint choose one person to be Taiwan's chief exective in order to realize Mao Ze-Dong and Deng Xiao-Ping's theory "one China, two systems". Ma is only write "unity" but not directly get touch with CCP's central leaders rather than his predecessor Chen who saw many CCP's figures in Taipei's presidential palace. Tsai thinks that the most important thing is to maintain Taiwanese benefit; meanwhile, she answers any question of cross-strait problem by realistic Q&A rather than stupid and naive Ma's "yes or no".

I don't agree this Economist's article's logic, I think anti-Ma side will win in 2012, or I want Ma to step down from his self-cetered seat tomorrow. Be aware of "faked China" problem, although I don't like or hate these two persons, I vote Tsai, who is the better choice in this election. This action can represent my attitude agaist Kuomingtung, just like the same thought why I support these 1979 incident's figures. And if there are the third choice, I hope CCP reiterates Taiwan is one of members in China, and freeze any Chen Yun-Lin's diction and plans. That's OK when Xi Jin-Ping and Li Kai-Chiang decide directly to order Taiwanese. Welcome to Chinese Era in 21th century.

    Recommended

    19

    Report

    Permalink

這篇筆者猜對了大部份，選舉的過程和結果都很平庸無奇，事後也沒什麼檢討，下一次的選舉民進黨是搭順風車上台，不是黨自己的力量所以今天民進黨又要失去政權了。如果台灣民眾覺得經濟衰頹時，就算有比荒漠甘泉的ECFA更能賺錢的可能，但又說一種膨風的過得去，當好好先生和好好小姐，那就是只要說有飲台灣水甲台灣米作台灣人的馬英九會連任成功，只要講愛台灣什麼都忘了，馬和蔡英文2012果然比起民粹來，蔡比輸了一次。當年這篇是指蔡英文確立找現任立法院長的蘇嘉全的英嘉配，蔡英文還跑去臺中豐原設戶籍。民進黨經歷了世代交替，美麗島主流淡出並且有年青一代或是前十年的幕僚擔任主打，筆者那天提當時在坐牢的阿扁和一個悶去辦雜誌的呂秀蓮就政治上沒有太大的用途？現在看來是。筆者覺得一個中國唯一正確的北京速統算了，在台灣現在內政不好不管是當年國民黨還是現在民進黨的全面執政沒有人課責的，都用裁量權回人民，只能自己好好吃自己。

筆者曾經之後寫有關陳前總統的小傳及暫停羈押的評論，也有附上一段其往事說明。這段在2012年10月的說明曾經問過美國前眾議院議長John Boehner 並拿去作了引用，如政治社會化及政治文化的概念及其仍對兩岸關係消極但有成效的開放，並且在其2013年連任成功後寫信給當時的前總統馬英九要求對陳前總統進行特赦，以及副知於收過筆者的現任中國國務院總理李克強。筆者寫的這幾篇聽說很高興有現在第266任羅馬教宗的憐憫，因此能夠在2015年1月5日以保外就醫名義獲釋。有關的文章詳見於：（目前仍未貼在此版）Terms of imprisonment Oct 24th 2012, 13:34、A blow to the KMT Dec 10th 2014, 12:14、A-bian back home Jan 20th 2015, 15:25 （還有一篇提到蓬萊島事件的文章，之後回顧到再補上）