5樓. 草很平

2020/10/12 04:50

在長期低利率下 .....
傳統的保險集團﹐在長期低利率下﹐理論上 早已破產了。  之所以 大部分還在苟延殘喘﹐靠的是非理性手段。  因此 精算師 包括我 已無用武之地了。

我只能說 我們老年人 比較幸運！

4樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目

2020/10/11 07:22

The real damage to the insurance companies .....
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/we-re-in-the-midst-of-a-financial-bubble-the-likes-of-which-i-ve-never-seen-15454938

『Assumptions are based on a "normal" 10-year forward projection of 3.75% for the yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury note. Yesterday that yield closed at 0.77%.』

Nearly three full percentage points from MetLife's baseline, decade-long, projection for the yield on the 10-year.

MetLife's second quarter 2020 earnings were stubbed by poor performance in private equity assets. Well, with a 10-year UST yielding three full points below their target, get ready for more of that. Also, MetLife saw derivative losses of $710 million in 2Q20, which MET's presentation indicates were generated from hedging U.S. stock positions.

So, it's the worst of both worlds. Bond yields are infinitesimal and any attempt to hedge equity returns is met with this rampaging bullishness that has become part of the market, especially the Nasdaq, in 2020. It's tough out there for an entity that is attempting to match returns with periodic costs. One possible outcome is for insurance companies to just throw up their collective hands and go risk-on in the equity markets, both private and public.

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3樓. Kaka

2018/10/25 14:57

不錯，贊！借款

2樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目

2017/05/28 00:01

全球退休基金缺口 .....
『恐成經濟炸彈』

退休基金規模最大的六個國家（美國、英國、日本、荷蘭、加拿大、澳洲），以及人口最大的兩國（中國與印度），到2050年合計將面臨428兆美元的退休儲蓄缺口，比2015年的67兆美元大增。

人口老化是資金缺口擴大的一個因素。隨著預期壽命平均每五年增加一年，到2050年，65歲以上人口可能從目前的6億人增至21億人，但整體人口成長趨緩，意味更少的勞工將負擔更多的退休金支出。

目前約每八名勞工養一名退休人士，到2050年比例可能變成4比1。

經濟成長趨緩、利率低迷和投資報酬率更微薄，也使退休基金承受的壓力與日俱增。過去十年來，股票投報率比歷史平均值低3%至5%，債券投報率則大約低1%至3%。

https://udn.com/news/story/6811/2488093

危言耸听 ? !

1. 老賊 無體力鬧革命。
2. 安樂死 將成主流共識？
3. 有幸/不幸 乃 天理？  http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/4703541

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1樓. 天涯孤鴻···花窗

2017/04/06 22:21

。

現在的人活得太久，早就超過當年的預計

美國政府口袋又鬆，發出去的錢想收回，老年人會拼命的！

加拿大更是，福利制度的國家，最後都成為下一代的沉重包袱