中華民國國防大學洪榮一說想想:

原油風暴與經濟

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 DEC 26 2014

Indeed,according with global oil prices have been declined during 2014,

and not only intensified the purchasing power of consumers,at the same time,stimulus to global needs.

In particular,cheaper natural gas prices have supported Japan,Europe,and other economies growth,it is just the most directive impacts.

To look back in historical stories

The oil prices have sped up to respond some political and economic changes,and keep a relativity of flation.

In the mid-term of 20th centery over decades,cheaper oil prices from the Middle East pushed the global industries growth.

For instance,Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries with their oil industries have set up the OPEC,

which stabilized the global oil prices in 1973,than oil price to $12 a barrel.

But oil prices flew after the re-turn back the age-old of Iran in 1979,

and the same time,it is in the face of new oil discoveries in the England's North Sea,

Mexico and Alaska,and the push the advanced industrial countries that slowed needs.

Since thenmthe willingness and capability of OPEC to stabilize prices has been instability.

The next came into the 21st century,as need for oil from China and other emerged economic system,

and than it has begun to go up approximately $120 a barrel in 1980's ; however,prices have crashed in 2008.

But the global countries have been as recovery National Strategic Petroleum Reserve Mechanism,and faced China's growth sustainable.

According with Shale-Revolution of 2009,the new era for oil start,in particular,reversed the depression of the North American oil production.

At the same time,the renewed global economic expansion brought oil prices to keep $100 a barrel by 2011,

and than,maintained global supplies and need.

But by mid-2014,Libyan oil sped up output which was shaked a sustainable balance with oil prices.

So,as Saudi Arabia might be feeling out-of-sort,and also unwilling to reduce output to support the market - the price decline,

that prices $60 a barrel will be a new model?

Indeed,the influence between global demand and supply,and today's prices will raise consumption growth.

As historical experience shows,uncertainty and turbulence from the Middle East,so they are difficult to predict.

Nor balance can show oil market.

In particular,oil Shale technology is still developing,and how much cheaper oil prices will influence supply from North America is uncertain.

Anda also it is hard to forecast what OPEC strategic deployment will be?

After all,today’s environment is different.

Especially,the dangerous as Iran.

The oil price declines that sounds like the OPEC has been ended,but no one knows that they will be taken strategically, what models?

As 2015 economic prospects,the oil price declines that has been stimulus to consumer spending,and helping employment growth ;

so reasonable to project oil prices should be in $60 a barrel.

In this environment,it has contributed significantly to the economic recovery.

In short,such the oil price decline hardships,or will intensify the prospects for successful diplomatic partnership rather than increased contestation.

STORM IN THE OIL AND ECONOMY.BY MR.洪榮一 THOUGHT

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子DEC 26 2014

其實，端視2014年全球油價下跌，不僅強化全球消費者的購買力；

同時，刺激全球需求，特別是，便宜的天然氣價格，支持，日本，歐洲等其他經濟體成長，或是最直接的影響！

回顧歷史故事：

原油價格能夠加速反應有些政治和經濟改變，並保持一個相對性穩定時期；

在二十世紀中期，幾十年裡，便宜的原油價格來自中東地區，驅動全球各國工業成長；

舉例來說，在1973年，沙烏地阿拉伯聯合其他石油生產國的石油產業成立OPEC來穩定全球原油價格，

當時是一桶是十二美元！

但是，伊朗的重返古代，全球原油價格曾經暴漲在1979；

並在同時，新的石油發現在英國北海，阿拉斯加與墨西哥；

在20世紀80年代，促使先進的工業國家放慢原油需求！

自此，OPEC穩定價格的意願與能力是不穩定的！

接下來，便是進入二十一世紀，隨著中國與其他新興經濟體的原油需求；

然後，在20世紀90年代開始上升到每桶大概一百二十美元；

雖然，在2008年的價格曾經下滑；

但是，面對中國的持續成長，全球各國已經恢復國家戰略原油儲備機制！

端視2009年的油頁岩革命啟動新世原油世代；

特別是，扭轉低迷的北美洲石油產量，

與此同時，新的全球經濟擴張帶來的原油價格，保持在每桶一百美金在2011年，然後，保持全球供應與需求！

但是，到2014年中期，利比亞石油，加速產量，打亂一個可持續性油價平衡！

所以，沙烏地阿拉伯可能不爽也不願意，降低產量來支撐市場；

油價降低，是以每桶六十美元的價格，將會是新模式？

其實，全球需求與供應是相互影響的，今天的油價下降是增加消費成長；

由於歷史經驗說明，不確定和動盪來自中東，是很困難地預測，也不是平衡能夠說明原油市場；

特別是，油頁岩技術，仍在不斷發展，不確定有多少低價原油將影響北美洲供應；

畢竟，今天的環境是不同的，是以也很困難預測OPEC的策略部署！

特別是，危險的伊朗；

油價下降看起來像OPEC已經被終結，但是，沒有人知道，他們將採取什麼模式的策略？

作為2015年的經濟願景，油價下降已經刺激消費者支出與幫助就業機會增加；

所以，合理的預測油價應該是一桶六十美金；

在這種環境下，也意味地對經濟復甦作出了貢獻！

總之這，類油價下跌的困難，或能強化成功的外交夥伴關係，而不是增加激烈的爭奪願景！