里昂證券對2012選舉的預估,這兩天變成頭條新聞, 前天是先聽到廣播一再播放,說里昂預測馬英九會輸掉 2012.昨天,自由時報把它做成頭條,這很符合該報一貫做法,凡是不利於馬政府的,它一定大做.

結果,里昂自己出來澄清,說它的報告內容並不是做這樣的預測,反而是說,2012馬英九是勝券在握,除非國民黨內部自亂陣腳.

翻譯出錯的關鍵在一個片語: KMT's to lose. 照字面意思,好像是國民黨要輸,但someone's to lose實際的意思並非會輸, 你要擁有,才會丟掉,意思是2012就是KMT的了,除非.....

查看里昂報告,在這句之前一段,就很明白的說,.市場預期 馬英九會在2012當選連任.因此,自由時報的編譯,如果看了上面一段,再去硬拗說KMT會輸,就前言不對後語.

以下是里昂報告相關的部分內容:

"Market expectations are for continued substantive progress on the cross-

Strait agenda with little disruption to that agenda from local politics. The

market also expects President Ma Ying-jeou to be re-elected in 2012, giving

the initial progress time to take root and allowing for further improvement.

There is little likelihood, in our view, that the actual outcome will be better

than those baseline expectations, and there is a greater likelihood that either

the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) or a misstep by the Kuomintang (KMT)

could derail those expectations."

"The success of the current Ma administration is inexorably tied to the success

of the administration’s efforts to improve cross-Strait relations, particularly

through deepening economic ties with mainland China. These efforts, in turn,

hinge on the successful negotiation and completion of the initial ECFA. We are

confident that the ECFA will be signed, but the manner in which it is

presented to the public will matter as much as the content in determining

how much it helps or hurts the Ma administration."

"We maintain the view we proposed last June, that the 2012 Presidential

election is the KMT’s to lose. The Ma administration’s China policy has broad

enough public support that it should be able carry the 2012 election on its

own merits. However, we also believe that “it would likely require some selfinflicted

wound for the KMT to lose in 2012” and events of recent months

highlight the ease with which this can happen."

"The KMT’s fundamental problem is its serial inability to effectively balance

local and national priorities. While the Ma administration’s China policy enjoys

broad support, the administration has a weak track record on domestic issues

and has often come across as aloof and insensitive. This problem was on

stark display with the government’s inept response to Typhoon Morakot and

the lasting impression it made."